Getty Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams head to Detroit to take on the Lions in the playoffs.
The Los Angeles Rams (10-7) head to Ford Field in Detroit to take on the Lions (12-5) in the NFC Wild Card round on Sunday night.
The game is one of the most hotly-anticipated of the weekend, as it involves the return of former Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, who now leads the Rams. Stafford has played Detroit once before, in L.A. back in the 2021 regular season. The Rams won at home, 28-19, but now, the former Lions No. 1 overall pick is heading back to Motor City for his first postseason game against his former team, and it promises to be a doozy.
While the majority of sportsbooks have the Lions as 3.5-point favorites in this game, our model suggests this game could be even closer than that.
Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections, courtesy of our partners at Quarter 4, give the Lions a 52% chance to win this game, with Detroit being 0.5-point favorites. While other sportsbooks ahve the over/under at 51.5 points, our model predicts this game will be the highest-scoring of the weekend with the over/under set at 54.5 points
Here’s a look at five more AI-powered predictions for this weekend’s Wild Card showdown.
1. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown Headed for a Big Game vs. Rams
AMON-RA ST. BROWN 70-YARD TD
📺: #MINvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus t.co/X0vcyHUoyR
Amon-Ra St. Brown led the Lions with 1,515 yards during the regular season, also hauling in 10 TDs. The talented third-year wideout averaged 94.7 receiving yards per game and 0.6 touchdowns per game, and our Quarter 4 predictions have him upping both of those averages against the Rams.
Heavy’s AI-powered model has St. Brown finishing with 7.5 receptions for 103 yards and 1.2 TDs — that’s a hefty 100% increase from his usual average.
St. Brown had nine 100-yard receiving games this season, and he has scored a touchdown in each of his last four games. He hauled in seven passes for 144 yards and a score in Detroit’s season finale against the Minnesota Vikings and his hot streak should continue here.
2. Lions Defense Predicted to Strike First, Aidan Hutchinson Will Eat
The Rams and Lions have eerily similar stats on defense this season. L.A. has allowed 337.9 total yards and 22.2 points per game on the defensive side. Detroit has surrendered 336.1 yards per contest while giving up 23.2 points per contest. Both teams have 41 sacks. The Lions have a noticeably better secondary, though, betting 16 interceptions this year to the Rams’ 10.
Our model has the Lions’ defense 85% more likely to get the game’s first sack, and 72% more likely to haul in the game’s first interception.
Detroit defensive end Aidan Hutchinson should also have a big game, which is no surprise. This season, Hutch averaged 0.7 sacks per game. Quarter 4 has him doubling that total at 1.4 sacks against the Rams. Hutchinson has 11.5 sacks and 33 quarterback hits this year, and is expected to be a big factor in this game.
3. Puka Nacua Should Find End Zone
BREAKING: PUKA NACUA NOW HAS THE MOST RECEIVING YARDS EVER BY A ROOKIE, 1,473
🤯🤯🤯
Also has his 105th catch of the season, now the most ever.
NOT BAD FOR A 5TH ROUND PICK.
Fewer players had better stories this year than Rams fifth-round rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua, who set a new record for receiving yardage for rookies with 1,486 yards. He was a favorite target of Stafford’s, and for good reason. Nacua is a strong, sure-handed wideout, and he has made an impact in nearly every game he has played in. This one should be no different.
The Heavy model predicts Nacua will net 70 yards receiving against the Rams, down 19.91% from his average of 87.4 yards per contest. He’s more likely to score a touchdown than normal, however.
Quarter 4’s projections have Nacua scoring 0.6 TDs, a 50% jump from his 0.4 per-game average.
4. Both Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery Likely to Score TDs
Another rookie TD for the @Lions!
Jahmyr Gibbs scores his 10th of the season
📺: #MINvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus t.co/X0vcyHUoyR
Both running backs have been solid for the Lions this year, creating a formidable tandem in the backfield. Our model has both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery finding the end zone.
Gibbs has 10 rushing TDs on the season, while Monty has 13, and both have been hot of late, both scoring three TDs in three last three games. Still, Quarter 4 has Gibbs rushing 10.4 times for 54 yards and 1.3 rushing touchdowns. Considering Gibbs averages 0.7 TDs a game, that’s a significant increase from his usual production (85.71%).
Quarter 4 has Montgomery projected to finish with 11.5 carries for 58 yards and 1 TD. Montgomery averaged just under one tuddy a game this season, and he’ll likely continue to produce in the postseason.
5. Matthew Stafford Will Put Up Better Numbers Than Normal Under Pressure
Stafford is averaging 264.3 yards passing per game, and the Quarter 4 model has him throwing for 293.7 yards against his former team. Our projections also have the Rams QB throwing more TDs than normal. He averages 1.6 TD tosses per contest, and Quarter 4’s estimates have him throwing 2.2 in this game, a 37.5% increase.
While the Heavy model also predicts Stafford will light his former team up, it also says the Lions will sack him more than he’s used to. Quarter 4 predicts he’ll get sacked 2.6 times, 30% more than his usual 2.0 sacks per contest.
Below, you’ll find how our model compares to other sportsbooks regarding point spread and totals for this game:
| Outlet | Spread | Total |
| Heavy* | Lions -0.5 | 54.5 |
| MGM | Lions -3.0 | 51.5 |
| DraftKings | Lions -3.5 | 51.5 |
| FanDuel | Lions -3.0 | 51.5 |
| SugarHouseNJ | Lions -3.0 | 51.5 |
| PointsBet | Lions -3.5 | 51.5 |
| Bet365NewJersey | Lions -3.5 | 51.5 |
| ESPN BET | Lions -3.0 | 51.5 |
* The Heavy data point is a projected spread powered by Quarter4. The other outlets in the table are all sportsbooks.