It brings me no joy to recommend fading Isiah Pacheco in 2024 fantasy drafts. I bullishly drafted him last season, when he had an RB22 average draft position (ADP). He finished as the RB15 in total fantasy points, despite missing three contests. For managers who invested in him at market value, he delivered.
But emotion and fantasy success don’t mix. That was last year. We have to step back and approach 2024 objectively, as there are entirely different factors to consider for the former seventh-round pick. Because while Pacheco currently is the clear-cut bell cow for the defending-champion Chiefs, he’s wildly overvalued at his RB11 ADP. Here’s why.
Why Isiah Pacheco’s Workload Probably Won’t Grow
I’ve written a lot over the years about the impact of RB workload on future fantasy performance, utilizing predictive analytics off of data models I’ve assembled on college and pro usage. While Pacheco spent most of his four collegiate campaigns as “the guy” in Rutgers’ backfield, he topped out at 15.4 carries per game as a sophomore.
Last season, Kansas City handed him 286 carries in 18 games (including the playoffs), or 15.9 carries per contest. During the regular season, 13 RBs earned more carries per game. The Chiefs actually had the eighth-fewest rushing attempts for the second consecutive year.
Conversely (and not at all surprisingly), this franchise was #2 last season in pass attempts, up from #5 the year before. Yes, this is one of the NFL’s most pass-friendly offenses, and there are no indications that they will deviate from this winning approach.
In Pacheco, they have an efficient three-down back who doesn’t need massive usage, and trying to turn him into a workhorse might backfire, as he’s never netted that kind of volume before. He’s exceeded 20 carries in a game only once, and that was in 2022. The Chiefs kept him relatively fresh for the playoffs last season, and it worked. Essentially, why mess with a good thing?
Where Should Managers Target Pacheco in Drafts?
I understand why the market is so bullish about Pacheco. He’s the unquestioned #1 RB in one of the league’s best offenses. But that doesn’t always translate into fantasy dominance, and in Pacheco’s case, it makes him highly risky at his lofty price.
He would need to outperform last year’s totals to have a realistic shot at matching his RB11 ADP. Where will that added production come from? He had 9 TDs last season, so there’s not much room to grow there. His 3.5 targets per game might increase to 4, maybe giving him 1 extra fantasy point per game. But would that be enough to lift him into the top 10? Perhaps, but only barely.
If you’re drafting Pacheco at his RB11 ADP, you’re hoping (or rather expecting) that he’ll enjoy the same elite or even near-elite ceiling of other relatively high-priced RBs. But the system in which he plays caps that upside. Fair or not, Pacheco will struggle to finish in the top 10, and if the Chiefs add an RB in this year’s NFL draft, there could be even more downward pressure on Pacheco’s ceiling.
Again, this has less to do with talent and more with opportunity. There are a host of seemingly reliable #1 RBs to snag after the first two to three rounds of fantasy drafts. Pacheco is one of them, and he happens to be priced higher than many others (like Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry, and Aaron Jones) with similar or greater upside.
If you want to play it safe, Pacheco should be a fairly reliable top-20 option. But if you want to play for a title, look elsewhere, because Pacheco is way overvalued.
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Why Isiah Pacheco Is the Most Overvalued Fantasy RB in 2024