Getty QB Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers celebrates after defeating the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on December 25, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
The Green Bay Packers have officially re-entered the postseason conversation.
Three weeks ago, the three-time consecutive NFC North division champs were beyond a long-shot to make the playoffs. But after three straight wins and other chips across the NFL falling Green Bay’s way, the Packers’ attitude, swagger and postseason chances are all trending up.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers embodied those shifts in demeanor and fortune during his postgame interview following the team’s 26-20 road victory over the Miami Dolphins on Christmas Day.
“Everything that we needed to happen this weekend, happened.” 🤷♂️
Aaron Rodgers catches up with Pam Oliver after the @packers Christmas Day win!
“Special day for us,” Rodgers said. “Everything that we needed to happen this weekend, happened. And all we had to do was take care of our business against a good football team who had a lot to play for, as well. But I’m really proud of our team. We found a way to win, and the way our defense stepped up the last few drives was outstanding.”
“[The Vikings and Lions] are good football teams. Obviously, Minnesota has had a great season. They’ve already locked up the division. They have a lot to play for, though. A couple of dome teams coming to Lambeau,” Rodgers continued. “It’s been cold up in Green Bay. One of those good old-fashioned North rivalries next week with a lot on the line for both teams, so I’m excited.”
Packers’ Playoff Chances Balloon After Victory Over Dolphins
GettyQB Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers runs into the tunnel after defeating the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on December 25, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)
Rodgers’ warning wasn’t over the top, but it was also clear — Green Bay has the edge and the advantage over both the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions coming down the stretch, and now needs only minimal outside help to sneak its way into the NFC playoffs as a Wildcard team.
Ed Werder of ESPN laid out the Packers’ playoff scenario in a tweet on Sunday.
If the #Packers win their final two games and the Commanders lose one game OR the Giants lose two games, Green Bay would clinch a playoff spot.
The Packers finish with two division opponents at Lambeau Field. Vikings and Lions – both dome teams, as mentioned by Aaron Rodgers.
“If the #Packers win their final two games and the [Washington] Commanders lose one game OR the [New York] Giants lose two games, Green Bay would clinch a playoff spot,” Werder wrote. “The Packers finish with two division opponents at Lambeau Field. Vikings and Lions — both dome teams, as mentioned by Aaron Rodgers.”
Green Bay entered the weekend with a roughly 7% chance to make the postseason. Those odds bumped up to approximately 28% after all the relevant Week 16 results came through, per Austin Mock of The Athletic. If the Packers are able to defeat both the Vikings and Lions, their chances at a playoff berth spike to nearly 90%.
Packers Favored to Beat Vikings at Lambeau Field on New Year’s Day
GettyQB Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers reacts to a play during the third quarter of a game against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field on September 15, 2019 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
As of Monday, the Packers were 3-point favorites to defeat the Vikings in their coming New Year’s day matchup, per ESPN. That line opened in some places at -4 and other sportsbooks at -3.5 in Green Bay’s favor, though the money coming in over the initial 24 hours after the spreads posted pushed most of them down to a field goal advantage for the Packers.
The Vikings (12-3) have been experts in the clutch this season, but have nevertheless won 11 of their 12 games by one score. The only victory that was by a greater margin was over the Packers in Week 2 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, when Minnesota defeated Green Bay 23-7.
However, both long-term and recent history suggest that Sunday’s game at Lambeau will be three things — frigid, closely contested and trending in the Packers’ favor.
The Commanders, meanwhile, will host a Cleveland Browns team that was eliminated from playoff contention on Saturday via a loss to the New Orleans Saints. Washington enters that game as 2.5-point favorites. The Giants are 3-point favorites at home against the Indianapolis Colts.