Getty Hassan Ridgeway pressures Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes aims to move into a tie for fourth place all-time in Super Bowl victories when the reigning MVP leads the Kansas City Chiefs against the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl.
Mahomes was nearly flawless in the AFC Championship game, completing 30-0f-39 passes — including all 11 of his targets to All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, finishing the game with 241 passing yards with 1 touchdown, 1 interception and a 17-10 victory over the Baltimore Ravens.
Now, Mahomes and the Chiefs are set for a rematch against the 49ers — who Kansas City dispatched 31-20 in the 2020 Super Bowl — in a game that Heavy’s projections model gives San Francisco a 66% chance of winning.
Here are 3 AI-powered predictions for Mahomes in the big game using Heavy’s dfsPro Daily projections:
1. Patrick Mahomes Will Go Off for 2nd-Most Yards in His Super Bowl Career
The last time these two teams met with the Lombardi Trophy at stake, Mahomes passed for the most yards in his three Super Bowl appearances.
Fueled by a frenetic second-half comeback, Mahomes capped the 2020 Super Bowl with 286 passing yards and two touchdowns on 26-of-42 passing.
The Heavy Sports model projects that Mahomes will make a run at that personal record, finishing the 2024 Super Bowl 285.2 yards, including a longest pass of 45.5 yards.
If Mahomes clears both of those benchmarks, it would surpass his season averages in each category.
San Francisco has been vulnerable against the pass this season, finishing with the No. 14 ranked passing defense in the NFL, and allowing 232.3 yards per game.
2. 49ers Will Hold Patrick Mahomes to Under 2 Touchdowns
In two of Mahomes’ three Super Bowl appearances, the reigning Super Bowl MVP has tossed at least 2 touchdown passes.
Our model does not expect Mahomes to reach that benchmark against the 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl, though, projecting he passes for just 1.5 scores.
Mahomes enters the 2024 Super Bowl with 27 touchdown passes and has thrown multiple touchdowns in 10 games this season, including against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC divisional playoffs.
The Chiefs are 8-2 in games where Mahomes tosses multiple touchdown passes, including the postseason, and just 5-4 when he does not.
3. Rashee Rice Will Be Patrick Mahomes’ Favorite Target
Two weeks after Kelce showed that he could still take over a game and power the Chiefs’ offense, our model projects a different Chiefs pass-catcher to be Mahomes’ favorite target in the Super Bowl.
According to the Heavy Sports model, Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice will pace Kansas City’s passing offense.
Rice projections: 7.2 receptions, 90.7 yards, 0.5 touchdowns, 20.6 FP (DraftKings)
In a season where the Chiefs struggled mightily to get consistent production from the wide receiver position, Rice has been a bit of a revelation, especially during these NFL Playoffs.
After being chosen by the Chiefs in the second round of the 2023 NFL draft, Rice caught 79 passes for 938 yards and 7 touchdowns as a rookie.
During the Chiefs’ three postseason games, Rice clearly climbed Mahomes’ target hierarchy while adding 20 receptions for 223 yards with 1 touchdown.
Rice emerging even as a secondary weapon in the passing game, to Kelce, could go a long way toward Mahomes and the Chiefs hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for the third time this era.