Getty Ex-Raiders RB Josh Jacobs
It will be weird, after five years of watching one of the last first-round running backs excel in silver-and-black, to see Josh Jacobs suit up for any other team but the Raiders. Heading into free agency, all indications were that the team would re-sign Jacobs, and he seemed to be happy with the removal of the interim tag for head coach Antonio Pierce.
Plus, general manager Tom Telesco said that Jacobs would be a priority, and that the team would “explore pretty hard” the notion of getting him back on a long-term deal. The Raiders declined the chance to franchise-tag Jacobs, letting him hit the open market.
“I do want to establish a philosophy with the Raiders that we do like to sign our own,” Telesco said of Jacobs.
Instead, the Packers swooped in with a bigger offer than the Raiders were willing to give, and Jacobs bolted. Perhaps you wish Jacobs well. But if you’re the more vindictive sort, you might like to know that there’s a chance he won’t work out at all in Green Bay.
That, at least, is the view from analyst Gilberto Manzano of SI.com. In a post titled, “2024 NFL Free Agency: 10 Most Likely Busts,” he writes that Jacobs will be one of those “busts” in Green Bay.
Raiders Were Outbid by Packers
There was surprise when the Packers gave the former Raiders star a four-year, $48 million contract that comes with $14 million guaranteed up front, a number the Raiders would not match.
It’s somewhat of a deceptive deal because the Packers have an out after each season. That means that, if Jacobs is, indeed a bust after one year, he could potentially return to the Raiders.
How, exactly, might Jacobs be a stinker in Wisconsin? As Manzano sees it, he is well-suited for a run-first attack with a middling quarterback like Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew. Jacobs might not make sense for the pass-happy Packers offense, especially not at that price.
“This move, however, doesn’t make sense from a personnel perspective and a budgeting standpoint,” Manzano wrote.
“Jordan Love wasn’t in need of a workhorse back. The team could have paired AJ Dillon, who re-signed on a one-year, $2.7 million contract, with a rookie or another veteran running back without having to commit $14 million. The Packers are on the rise with Love and a handful of promising pass catchers. Now they need to find a way to get Jacobs heavily involved, possibly disrupting the chemistry from last season.”
Josh Jacobs: Off Year or Losing a Step?
No question, Jacobs ranks among the best backs in the NFL. He led the league with 1,653 yards rushing in 2022, and also led the league with 87.2 yards per game. He was an All Pro and a Pro Bowler that year, with a career-high 4.9 yards per carry. The Packers would welcome that version of Jacobs.
For Jacobs, 2023 was a different story, though. The Raiders offense was a mess for the early part of the season under Josh McDaniels, and only marginally improved when McDaniels was replaced on October 31 and replaced by Antonio Pierce. After taking over, Pierce vowed to get Jacobs the ball consistently, and his production rose, but his yards per attempt did not get much better.
Jacobs finished the year with a career-low 3.5 yards per attempt. That number was 3.1 before Pierce and 3.9 after him, an improvement but hardly a complete transformation. It could be that, even at the young age of 26, Jacobs has lost a step.
If there is reason to question whether that’s the case for Jacobs, the fact that he missed the final four games of the season with a quad injury and was replaced by second-year man Zamir White is a good starting point. White ran for 397 yards in those four games, and averaged 4.7 yards per carry—with the same offense Jacobs had in front of him.
Perhaps Jacobs will be a bust for the Packers. And maybe he returns to the Raiders if so. Or, better yet: Maybe White blossoms into stardom in his place.