5 AI-Powered Predictions for Michigan vs. Alabama

Getty Heavy Sports' projections expect a big game from Blake Corum in the Rose Bowl.

Lots of offense, relatively speaking. A heavy dose of Blake Corum. And at the end of the day, a Michigan football victory over Alabama on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl.

That’s all part of the forecast generated by Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections model, powered by our partners at Quarter 4.

Here’s a look at five AI-powered predictions ahead of the game:

1. Michigan’s Blake Corum Will Run All Over the Alabama Defense

GettyBlake Corum in action November 25 against Ohio State.

The Heavy model expects a huge game from Michigan running back Blake Corum, who will top his season averages in rushing attempts, rushing yards and receiving yards, according to the projections.

The model projects the following for Corum: 18.7 carries (his average this season was 16.8); 98 rushing yards (79.1); and 10.9 receiving yards (6.3).

Those numbers would resemble a torrid stretch for Corum at the end of the regular season. The Wolverines’ wins over Penn State, Maryland, and Ohio State featured Corum’s three highest carry totals of the year, along with three of his five highest rushing-yard totals.

Corum’s totals in those games:

• 26 carries for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 24-15 win over Penn State.
• 28 carries for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 31-24 win over Maryland.
• 22 carries for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 30-24 win over Ohio State.

2. Both Quarterbacks Will Take Care of the Ball

Our projections call for Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy to be slightly *more* turnover-prone than he’s been on average this season. The forecast has McCarthy down for 0.6 interceptions. That’s actually a smidge higher than his season average of 0.3. Still, another interception-free game by McCarthy is well within the likely range of outcomes, according to the model.

That makes sense when you consider that McCarthy has thrown only four picks all season, and three of them came in one game — a shaky performance against Bowling Green in which he compiled a dismal 14.7 quarterback rating, per ESPN’s calculation. In the 10 games since, McCarthy has thrown 12 touchdowns and only 1 interception.

Our interceptions projection — 0.6 for the game — is identical for Jalen Milroe, McCarthy’s counterpart on the Alabama side. Milroe has been a bit more interception-prone than McCarthy this year, throwing 6 interceptions. But he’s been stellar in recent weeks, throwing a combined 7 touchdowns and no interceptions over the season’s final three games. That includes a 2-touchdown, no-interception showing in the Tide’s 27-24 win over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

3. The Game Will Have More Scoring Than the Vegas Consensus Expects

GettyMichigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy celebrates with fans after the Wolverines’ victory in the Big Ten Championship Game.

While our projections don’t expect this to be an all-out shootout, they do call for a slightly higher-scoring game than you’d expect based on the consensus from U.S.-based online sportsbooks.

Our model projects a combined points total of 46.5. While that wouldn’t be out of the ordinary for either team, it’s more than a full point higher than any of the sportsbooks in our database.

The game having a points total in the mid-40s or higher would be in line with the recent performances by both teams.

After each of Michigan’s first four games featured points totals under 46, the Wolverines played in eight straight games with more than 45 points scored, before that streak ended with the 26-0 Big Ten title game victory.

What’s more: The lowest-scoring games of the Michigan football team’s season still featured respectable points totals by the Wolverines, who scored at least 24 points in all 13 games, at least 30 in 11 of them.

Alabama has been far less prolific in the scoring department, falling below 30 points in seven of its 13 games. But the Crimson Tide have still played in games with 50 or more total points in their last six games — a stretch that includes a 42-28 win against LSU and a 49-21 road blowout of Kentucky in back-to-back games on November 4 and November 11.

4. Michigan Kicker James Turner Will Be a Key Player

Even compared to other championship contenders, the Michigan football team was unusual in that the Wolverines played in very few games that were remotely competitive. Michigan outscored its opponents by an average of more than 27 points per game, and played only three games that were decided by single digits.

That meant relatively little meaningful action for kicker James Turner. And with the Alabama game likely to be much closer than most of the games Michigan played this season, the Heavy model expects more action for Turner.

Our projections have Turner as one of the likeliest players to put up stats that diverge from his season-long averages. We project him with 2.1 field goal attempts and 1.6 made field goals.

While 2.1 field goal attempts isn’t a huge number by any stretch of the imagination, Turner has attempted more than two field goals only twice all season. It so happens that those two occasions were Michigan’s two most recent games: A 30-26 win over arch rival Ohio State, and a 26-0 drubbing of Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game. (Turner was perfect in moth games, going 3-for-3 against Ohio State and 4-for-4 against Iowa.)

5. Michigan Football Will Win by More Than a Field Goal

Our model is generally more bullish on Michigan than the consensus of major sportsbooks. As of Wednesday evening, December 27, our model had a projected point spread of Michigan by 3.5 points. While that’s not radically different from the sportsbook consensus, it’s two full points further in Michigan’s direction than all seven of the sportsbooks in our database.

Here’s a look at how the model compares to those sportsbooks:

* The Heavy data point is a projected spread powered by Quarter 4. The other outlets in the table are all sportsbooks.

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