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The Michigan Wolverines (14-0) and the Washington Huskies (14-0) will clash in the hotly anticipated College Football Playoff National Championship at NRG Stadium on January 8.
It’s a matchup featuring two of the nation’s top coaches, Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh and Washington’s Kalen DeBoer. It will also boast two of the most promising young quarterbacks in all of college football in J.J. McCarthy of the Wolverines and Michael Penix Jr. of the Huskies.
While the consensus line for the title game has Michigan as 4.5 point favorites over Washington, Heavy’s AI-powered model, powered by our partners at Quarter 4 is more confident in the Wolverines, setting them as a 6.5 point favorite with a 69% chance of winning the game.
Here’s a look at five other predictions for the national championship game generated by Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections model:
1. Michigan Is Far More Likely to Score First TD of the Game
Heavy’s Quarter 4 projections say Michigan has a 97% chance to score the game’s first touchdown. That’s a tad surprising considering how Michigan came out of the gate last week against the Tide.
McCarthy and company went three-and-out to start the game, while Jalen Milroe and Alabama followed up with a four-play TD drive to go up 7-0. Michigan rallied, of course, but not without sputtering multiple times.
Washington has gotten off to quick starts of late, scoring first in each of its last five games. It took the Huskies less than four minutes to score their first TD against the Longhorns last week:
That said, Quarter 4’s projections have the Wolverines an overwhelming favorite to score the first TD in this one. Washington still may score first, though, as Quarter 4 also has the Huskies at a 62% chance to hit the game’s first field goal.
2. Michigan RB Blake Corum Will Score Less Than Normal
Wolverines running back Blake Corum averages 1.8 TDs a game, and Quarter 4’s projection has him at 1.2 for this game. That’s a 33.33% differential, which feels significant.
The 5-foot-8, 200-pound Michigan back led the NCAA in TDs last season (24), and he scored again last week against Alabama, running his tally to 25 on the season. The Huskies are surrendering an average of 2.0 touchdowns a game, but our Q4 predictions don’t have Corum finding the end zone more than once.
The Quarter 4 model does have Corum gaining more yardage than normal — he’s projected to gain 99.1 yards against Washington, nearly 25% more than his 79.4 yards per game average. If Washington’s defense continues to be the bend-not-break type this could be right on the money.
3. Washington QB Michael Penix Won’t Carve Up Michigan the Way He Did Texas
Against Texas in the semifinals, Penix went 29-38 for 430 yards and two TDs. Our model has Penix having a solid game, but he likely won’t match what he did last week.
The Heavy model predicts Penix will complete 64.6% of his passes for 272.5 yards and two scores. The Washington offensive line has been as stout as they come. Penix wasn’t sacked at all last week, and he hasn’t been sacked over his last five games, but he was pressured quite a bit against Texas. It’s likely Michigan’s pass rush will be able to dim Penix’s shine just a bit.
The Longhorns amassed 18 pressures and 2 QB hits against the Huskies’ O-line last week, according to PFF. The Wolverines had 6.0 sacks and 11 pressures in their win over the Crimson Tide. If the Michigan ‘D’ plays near as well as it did last week, Penix could also be forced into some errors — more on that in a bit.
4. Michigan’s Defense Will Contain Washington WR Rome Odunze — Sort of
Rome Odunze, a projected top-10 pick in the upcoming NFL draft, is averaging just under 111 yards receiving a game. He has five straight 100-yard receiving games, including a six-catch, 125-yard performance against Texas. Our model predicts the talented WR’s streak of 100-yard games is set to end.
Quarter 4 has the Huskies’ stud WR finishing with 82.3 yards, a 25.8% dip from his usual output. He’s also predicted to score 0.7 TDs, 22.2% down from his usual 0.9% per game.
5. Both QBs Could Be in for Uncharacteristic Mistakes
Neither Penix nor McCarthy has made many mistakes this season. Penix has nine interceptions on the season, while McCarthy has thrown four.
McCarthy’s last interception came against Maryland on November 18, and Penix’s came on December 1 against Oregon. The Heavy model has Penix throwing 0.9 interceptions, a 50% increase from his 0.6 average.
As for McCarthy, Quarter 4 predictions have him throwing 0.6 INTs, a whopping 100% differential from his typical 0.3 average.
With both defenses expected to bring the heat via pass rush, both signal-callers could be far more mistake-prone than they normally are.
Here’s a look at how our model compares to other sportsbooks regarding point spread and totals:
| Outlet | Spread | Total |
| Heavy* | Michigan -6.5 | 58 |
| BetMGM | Michigan -4.5 | 56.5 |
| DraftKings | Michigan -4.5 | 56.0 |
| FanDuel | Michigan -4.5 | 56.5 |
| ESPNBET | Michigan -4.5 | 56.5 |
| SugarHouse | Michigan -4.5 | 55.5 |
| PointsBet | Michigan -4.5 | 56.5 |
| Bet365 | Michigan -4.5 | 56.5 |
* The Heavy data point is a projected spread powered by Quarter4. The other outlets in the table are all sportsbooks.
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