Getty The Boston Red Sox are hoping to compete in 2024. But if they don't, Lucas Giolito could become an attractive trade target.
On November 2, Boston Red Sox chairman Tom Werner promised a “full throttle” offseason from the organization with new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow at the helm.
So far, the biggest acquisition they’ve made is signing free-agent starting pitcher Lucas Giolito to a two-year, $38.5 million deal. He hasn’t thrown his first pitch for the Red Sox yet. But could he already be a potential target for contending teams at the 2024 MLB trade deadline?
Bleacher Report’s Zachary D. Rymer shared 10 way-too-early predictions for the upcoming season. His first prediction said Giolito would find his Cy Young-caliber form again and be in demand at the trade deadline.
The 29-year-old righty tossed a career-high 184.1 innings in 2023. He did it with three teams: the Chicago White Sox, the Los Angeles Angels and the Cleveland Guardians. However, it was the second straight year he struggled to produce results similar to what he did from 2019 to 2021.
During that period, Giolito posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.08 WHIP to go along with a 29-21 record in 427.1 innings. This was accompanied by three straight top-11 finishes in American League Cy Young Award voting. Between 2022 and 2023, he’s produced a 4.89 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with a 19-24 record in 346 innings.
Giolito twirled a 3.79 ERA in 21 starts for Chicago before getting dealt to the Angels at the 2023 trade deadline. That’s when his struggles ramped up. He posted a 6.89 ERA in six starts for Los Angeles. That was followed by a 7.04 ERA in another six starts for Cleveland.
Giolito Working Hard to Regain His Past Form
When looking at Boston’s current rotation mix, Giolito is at the top of the starting staff. They also subtracted from this group by trading Chris Sale (and cash) to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for shortstop Vaughn Grissom.
So, unless the Red Sox end up signing starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery, the hope here is that Giolito can regain his form and lead manager Alex Cora’s rotation. The Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams noted on January 4 that the hurler has been working on his mechanics this winter.
The Athletic’s Eno Sarris reported on January 18th that Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball is joining the Red Sox this season as a special advisor to Breslow.
Sources tell me that Kyle Boddy (@drivelinekyle) of @DrivelineBB will serve as a Special Advisor to Craig Breslow and the Red Sox on pitching R&D for the coming season.
This carries a little extra significance because Giolito has worked with Driveline in the past, which has resulted in success on the mound.
Will the Red Sox Be Trade-Deadline Sellers?
Nobody has won more World Series titles this century than the Red Sox. They’ve achieved October glory four times. The past few years haven’t been as fruitful, though.
Boston lost to the Houston Astros in the 2021 American League Championship Series. Outside of that, they’ve finished in last place in the American League East three times in the past four seasons. The club’s lack of big-time moves this winter has also led to questions about their commitment to winning.
WEEI’s Chad Curtis asked Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy about this on January 20, and he had a strong response.
“When we have two sucky seasons like we’ve had, these are natural questions. We have to take them,” he said. “But I can tell you, as a kid who grew up less than a mile from Fenway Park, if you think for one second that we aren’t passionate, committed, dedicated to the Boston Red Sox, you’re wrong, you’re a liar, and I’ll correct you on it, because it’s total BS.
“We are committed. We are frustrated. We take it personally. It angers us when we don’t win. And we understand that there are natural questions.”
Current projections don’t paint a terrific picture for the Red Sox in 2024. Boston’s current roster is expected to produce 35.9 WAR, according to FanGraphs. The other four AL East teams are well ahead of them. The next-closest club is the New York Yankees, who check in at 48.3.
So, if these projections come true and the Red Sox end up selling, they can at least hope for a resurgence from Giolito and an opportunity to potentially cash in at the trade deadline.