Mets Fan Favorite’s Extension Projection Valued at $106 Million Discount

pete alonso

Getty The Cubs are off to a solid start in 2024. If they're in the market for more offense at the deadline, could Pete Alonso be available?

The New York Mets made several changes to the roster during David Stearns’ first offseason as president of baseball operations. One big to-do list item that didn’t get crossed off ahead of 2024 was agreeing to a long-term contract extension with first baseman Pete Alonso.

The right-handed slugger will earn $20.5 million in his final year before hitting free agency in November. When asked about potential extension negotiations at spring training, Alonso said nothing was discussed beyond 2024. What kind of value could the 29-year-old command in an extension, though?

Tim Britton of The Athletic tried to answer that question on March 4. Based on his process, he valued an extension for the Scott Boras client at seven years and $190 million. That’d be a significant discount when using Spotrac’s Market Value metric as a benchmark.

They peg Alonso’s annual market value at $32.9 million over nine years. That equals just over $296 million, or a $106 million difference when compared to Britton’s projection.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post threw out $200 million as a likely starting point in negotiations on August 31. That was before Alonso hired Boras to be his new agent, which was also reported by Heyman on October 5.

Alonso Has Carved out His Place in the Mets’ Record Books

Although Alonso didn’t make landfall in the big leagues until 2019, he didn’t waste any time in making his mark. He’s become one of the game’s premier power hitters, as his 192 homers since 2019 are the most in baseball. Alonso also owns a National League Rookie of the Year Award, two Home Run Derby titles and three All-Star Game selections, per Baseball-Reference.

His full-season production is what shows his value. Alonso owns the Mets’ rookie home run record, the overall franchise home run record and MLB’s rookie home run record after blasting 53 taters in 2019. Not counting the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he’s never finished a year with fewer than 37 homers or 94 RBI.

Alonso has produced three seasons of 40-plus homers. That’s been done just three other times in club history: Todd Hundley (41 in 1996), Mike Piazza (40 in 1999) and Carlos Beltrán (41 in 2006). Alonso has also produced three seasons of at least 118 RBI. Once again, that’s only been done three other times in Mets history: Piazza (124 in 1999), Robin Ventura (120 in 1999) and David Wright (124 in 2008).

Both Sides Sound Genuinely Interested in Making Something Work

Stearns has publicly addressed Alonso’s impending free agency on various occasions. He’s said that the first baseman hitting the open market is “probably the most likely outcome.” However, the executive has also said New York would love to retain him.

Team owner Steve Cohen feels the same way. “We want to keep him,” he said while appearing on the Mets’ official new podcast.

“He’s an important part of our team today and hopefully in the future,” he added. “We know the fans feel strongly about him, and I’m not tone-deaf. I totally understand the fans’ love of Pete.

“I hope he hits 55 home runs and makes it so difficult on me in free agency. I would call that a great outcome.”

When speaking to the media on February 17, Alonso declared his love for the organization and New York City. The slugger added that he’s envisioned himself staying with the Mets for the entirety of his big-league career.

It’ll be interesting to see how things turn out in the coming months. It does look like both sides are trying to lay the foundation toward agreeing to a new deal at some point, though.

Read More