Getty Despite a hot start from Juan Soto and the New York Yankees, the team has been predicted to miss the playoffs thanks to a competitive division
The New York Yankees have raised hopes that a disappointing 2023 season is firmly in the rear-view mirror by surging to an MLB-best 10 wins to open this season.
But the hot start hasn’t been enough to convince ESPN fantasy and betting analyst AJ Mass, who has predicted that the Yankees still don’t have what it takes to return to the postseason, while their cross-town rival New York Mets will be in the playoffs.
“Are the Yankees a better team than the Mets?” Mass asked in a 2024 MLB predictions roundup article. “Absolutely, but they also play in a division where … it’s likely to be a tight race all season long.”
Mass added that the Yankees will win 90 games but will “start golfing early” as that won’t be enough to earn a postseason bid in the American League East.
Despite surging to double-digit victories, the Yankees have been winning by tight margins and their “stacked lineup has already been shut out twice,” Mass noted. He also pointed to early injury troubles, marked most recently by the loss of reliever Jonathan Loáisiga for the season.
The New York Yankees Are Leading MLB Standings, Even With Early Injuries
FanGraphs currently gives the Yankees the best chance to win the American League East with a 91.5 win total. The team has an 88.9% chance to make the playoffs and a 9.9% chance to win the World Series, the best chances to win it all behind only the Atlanta Braves (21.4%) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (15.7%), per FanGraphs.
But the team has already had its share of injury problems, which always threaten to derail even the most assured hopes of winning an MLB championship.
For instance, franchise ace Gerrit Cole opened the season on the injured list with elbow problems. While he could return to the mound as soon as May, there’s reason to believe the Yankees will be without him even as the playoff race intensifies.
“With everything we’ve seen with the conversation around pitching injuries, as (we) sit here today and we talk about whether Gerrit Cole will come back, I’m assuming he’s not,” ESPN’s Buster Olney said on an episode of the “Baseball Tonight” podcast.
Meanwhile, projected leadoff hitter DJ LeMahieu also has yet to play a game this season, though he’s set to “get into some rehab games” in the near future, per manager Aaron Boone.
The injury to Loáisiga, however, has highlighted a more existential problem for the Yankees, whose bullpen has been one of MLB’s worst at inducing strikeouts, raising calls for a replacement.
“Despite its early success, don’t be so sure that New York’s pen is capable of withstanding Loáisiga’s absence as is,” Zachary Rymer wrote for Bleacher Report. “It’s striking batters out at only a 15.3 percent clip, the lowest in MLB. To this end, his replacement will ideally be someone of bat-missing vintage.”
The New York Yankees Have Seen Hot Starts From Juan Soto, Anthony Volpe
Of course, the Yankees have a lot to be optimistic about in the early part of the season. New outfield Juan Soto is off to an incredible start, slashing .344/.468/.541 with 15 RBI in his first 61 at-bats. And young shortstop Anthony Volpe has been impressive as well, going .382/.477/.564 in his first 55 at-bats.
But after a promising 2023 that was ultimately derailed by injuries, the potential for the Yankees’ season to take a bad turn due to ailments will loom throughout the season.