Getty Blake Snell
Less than a month away from Opening Day on March 28, ex-San Diego Padres ace Blake Snell remains unsigned. Having been pursing a long-term, high-value deal all winter —and rejecting anything that didn’t meet his very expensive asking price — it seems Snell and his agent, Scott Boras, are finally readjusting their desires in order to find a team for 2024.
On February 28, NY Post’s Jon Heyman reported that Snell is now open to considering a short-term, high-AAV deal, so long as there’s opt-outs after each season. However, this could make things hard if a contract with the New York Yankees is what they’re after.
“Snell is willing to do one of those (Cody) Bellinger-type deals — short-term deal with an opt-out,” Heyman reported. “They did talk to the (New York) Yankees about this so I’m sure they’re willing to do it with other teams as well.”
Blake Snell willing to do a short-term deal with opt-outs? 👀
(w/ @JonHeyman)
Before the 2023 season, slugger Cody Bellinger signed a one-year contract with the Chicago Cubs with a mutual option for 2024. He was coming off a very underwhelming stint with the Los Angeles Dodgers and was looking for a “prove-it” deal. After Bellinger quickly made a comeback in 2024 as one of the best hitters in MLB, he opted out of his second season with the Cubs and reset his value in free agency this offseason.
If Snell is looking for a similar deal to the one Bellinger signed last winter, it could open the door for clubs that don’t want to put a six-figure salary on their books. Still, teams may not be as excited about the idea of a short-term, high-AAV deal as Snell is.
While opt-outs after each season provides the opportunity for Snell to try his luck in free agency again, the rules regarding draft-pick compensation (specifically that a player can only receive one qualifying offer) are a deterrent for teams. Snell received and rejected a qualifying offer at the end of 2023, so if he opts out of a new contract after one year, the team that signed him would lose a draft pick but couldn’t gain one.
Free Agency Market Thins As Snell Reconsiders Asking Price
At the start of free agency on November 6, MLB Trade Rumors predicted Snell would be looking at a seven-year, $200 million deal this winter. On January 13, Bill Maddon of the New York Daily News reported that the two-time Cy Young winner had set his asking price at nine years and $270 million.
So far, it doesn’t appear the 31-year-old pitcher has been offered a deal anywhere close to that value.
On January 11, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the Yankees had offered a five-year, $150 million deal to Snell, but he turned it down, leading the team to pivot to ex-Cubs ace Marcus Stroman instead. According to MLB Insider Mike Rodriguez, Snell “rejected because he wanted more money or one more year.”
Earlier in the winter, the San Francisco Giants were considered the favorites to sign Snell, per Heyman. However, the Giants ended up signing Jordan Hicks to a four-year, $44 million deal on January 12, effectively eliminating them from contention to secure Snell.
Despite various rumors, the Yankees are the only team that have been confirmed to have made a solid offer to Snell this offseason.
Yankees Are Still ‘Trying to Figure It Out’ With Snell, Though Cost to Team Would Be Exorbitant
On February 28, Heyman reported that despite their interest having briefly cooled off, the Yankees are still in the market for Snell, though a short-term deal could make it tough.
“The Yankees are thinking about it, they’re in touch,” Heyman said. “They stopped talking for a second but they restarted and have been talking ever since trying to figure it out. Snell’s trying to do that bridge deal for three years with an opt-out after the first year like [Cody Bellinger] has. For the Yankees right now, they aren’t loving that idea.”
After Snell rejected the Yankees’ five-year, $150 million contract offer in January, the team ended up signing Stroman instead. Still, Nightengale reported on February 18 that the Yankees were still interested in working something out with Snell, making another short-term deal offer that “could pay him in excess of $35 million a year”.
At the time, Snell was only known to be interested in long-term deals so a rejection was expected, but with his market thinning and a new outlook, he’s likely to reconsider the Yankees’ offer — if it’s still on the table. Gerrit Cole and Snell would make an incredible 1-2 punch at the top of the Yankees’ rotation, and considering the team’s World Series aspirations after 14 seasons without an AL Championship title, perhaps New York will make it happen.
Still, signing Snell on a short-term, high-value deal would be very costly for the Yankees. MLB’s highest luxury tax threshold for 2024 is set at $297 million, and New York is already estimated to be in excess of that, according to Cot’s Contracts. This means that every dollar spent over that threshold will be taxed at 110%, as explained by The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty.
“If the Yankees were to sign Snell to a one-year deal worth $30 million, it would actually cost them $63 million in total — and they would also have to surrender two draft choices and $1 million in international bonus pool money since Snell rejected the San Diego Padres’ qualifying offer,” Kuty reported on February 29.
It’s hard to imagine the Yankees would be prepared to eat such a high cost all for a player who may opt out after one season. New York has already made two very competitive offers, both of which didn’t include opt-outs, and Snell rejected them. Pivoting to a short-term, high-AAV deal that would cost the Yankees millions of dollars in tax, two draft picks, and $1 million in international bonus pool money is very unlikely to end with Snell in pinstripes.