Getty Yankees pitcher Luis Gil.
Luis Gil might start the All-Star Game for the American League. He also might be demoted to the bullpen in a few weeks.
Such is life for the 25-year-old Yankees pitcher asked to replace reigning American League Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole in the starting rotation.
Gil, coming back from Tommy John surgery, has already doubled his previous MLB-high for innings pitched (63.1 IP this year vs. 29.1 in 2021) and is maybe three starts away from matching his overall career high since his professional career began in 2015 (79.1).
Yet he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball so far.
The numbers say it all. Gil is 7-1 with a 1.99 ERA, well over a strikeout per inning, and a league-best 4.9 hits per 9 innings. His finest performance of the season came on Wednesday, May 29, when he stymied the Los Angeles Angels for 8 innings, striking out 9 and giving up just 2 hits and 1 run. He did it all in 95 pitches.
Gil’s Yankees teammates have taken notice.
“I don’t think anyone’s really surprised within the clubhouse or the organization,” said Anthony Volpe, according to the New York Post’s Greg Joyce. “But the level he’s doing it [at] and the lineups he’s doing it against, I think we’re all just blown away. It pumps everyone up when you get the lineup and you see his name at the bottom of it.
“I’m friendly with a couple guys on other teams and they’ll say after the games it’s the most electric fastball they’ve ever faced.”
Luis Gil Enters Rare Air
In his last four starts, Gil is 4-0 with a 0.68 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .124 off of him in that span and .184 on balls in play.
And even on the Yankees — the team with the most storied history in American sports — Gil is putting himself in elite territory. Stathead’s Katie Sharp pointed out after his dazzling performance against the Angels that Gil is the only pitcher in Yankees history to amass 40 strikeouts and pitch to a 0.75 ERA or better in a calendar month.
Luis Gil in May: 44 K, 0.70 ERA
Gil is the only pitcher in Yankees history with 40+ K and a sub-0.75 ERA in any calendar month.
Cole never did that. Neither did Whitey Ford, Ron Guidry, Lefty Gomez or all-time franchise strikeout leader Andy Pettitte.
“We’ve always known his talent,” manager Aaron Boone told reporters, according to the Post. “Coming back from Tommy John and having missed over a year of baseball, it would have been hard to predict this. But we’ve also always known about Luis’ talent.”
As MLB.com’s Thomas Harrigan pointed out, Gil has even posted some eerie similarities to Cole, the man he’s filling in for.
Through 10 starts last year, Cole had a 2.97 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts. Gil has posted numbers of 2.93, 1.01, and 70 respectively.
Even their four-seam fastballs have been oddly similar. Cole used his 53% of the time at an average velocity of 96.7 mph last year, compared to 55.5% and 96.5 mph for Gil. Cole’s fastball was good for a 2,412 rpm spin rate vs. 2,475 rpm for Gil. Cole’s had 12 inches of vertical movement, Gil’s has 11.9.
Who’s to say the Yankees’ No. 5 starter can’t also be a Cy Young candidate?
A Tough Decision Ahead
The Yankees have surpassed preseason expectations so far this year because their starting rotation has been one of the most consistent in Major League Baseball. New York is in first place in the AL East with Fangraphs giving them a 69% chance to win the division.
That means the team with 27 championships has its eyes on October. Moving its best starter to the bullpen would mean getting significantly less production from him.
But the team also must face the reality that Gil’s long-term future is more important than maybe having a successful playoff run. They could burn Gil out and still get knocked out early if their offense goes quiet, as it is prone to do in the postseason.
It’s a fortunate problem for Boone to face. He has the luxury of dealing with an entire rotation that is on historic pace. Gil’s start on Wednesday marked the 16th straight by a Yankees starter of at least 5 innings with 2 or fewer runs allowed. That’s the longest streak by any Major League team since at least 1893, according to Elias Sports Bureau.
When you look forward to Cole’s return, which is still at least several weeks out, Marcus Stroman and Carlos Rodon are both locks to stay in the rotation; the Yankees are paying them too much money. Nestor Cortes will probably stay as well. The 29-year-old has shown signs for returning to his 2022 AL All-Star form. That leaves Clarke Schmidt and Gil, and with Gil ready to blow by his previous career highs in innings pitched, he’s the logical candidate.
If that’s what happens, there’s a bright side. The Yankees’ weakness this year, if they have one, has been bullpen depth. Cole’s return will force a productive pitcher into the pen, easing the burden on everyone else.