Getty The NASCAR odds predict a repeat winner.
The NASCAR Cup Series season comes to a close at Phoenix Raceway on November 6. There will be four drivers fighting for the Bill France Cup, but the initial odds set up a repeat champion.
According to BetMGM, 2020 Cup Series champion Chase Elliott enters the weekend with the best odds to earn his second title. He sits at +200. He is just ahead of Christopher Bell (+250), who will make his first championship four appearance.
2018 Cup Series champion Joey Logano is third on the list at +300 as he tries to cap off a three-win season. He will enter the weekend in a tie with Ross Chastain, who punched his ticket to the championship four by riding the wall at Martinsville Speedway.
Elliott Has the Statistical Advantage
GettyChase Elliott has the best average finish at Phoenix Raceway.
One reason why Elliott has the best odds to win the championship is that he tops the list of drivers with his statistical advantage. He has an average finish of 10.7 in his 13 career starts with top-10 finishes in 61.5% of the races.
Elliott’s best performance at Phoenix Raceway capped off the 2020 season. He started on the pole after winning the elimination race at Martinsville Speedway, and he led 153 laps. Logano had the lead late, but Elliott passed him with 43 laps remaining and went on to win the championship.
For comparison, the driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford Mustang is third in BetMGM’s odds, but he enters the weekend with previous strong performances. Logano has the second-best average finish at 13.1 which includes some consistent runs.
Logano, who has made 27 career Cup Series starts at Phoenix, has 15 top-10 finishes and seven top-fives. This includes an eighth-place run during the spring race back in March.
Along with the top-10s, Logano has two trips to Victory Lane. He won the playoff race in 2016 and then captured his second checkered flag at the one-mile track early in the 2020 season.
First-Time Championship 4 Drivers Have Ground to Gain
GettyChristopher Bell (bottom) races Ross Chastain (top) at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Both Elliott and Logano have made double-digit starts at Phoenix Raceway while each reaching Victory Lane. Chastain and Bell have less experience with single-digit starts and fewer top-10 finishes.
Bell, who set a new career-high with three wins in 2022, has an average finish of 17.0 in his five starts at Phoenix. He has two top-10s — a pair of ninth-place finishes during the 2021 season. Though he finished 26th in the spring during a race in which he spun and brought out the caution.
Chastain has made eight starts at Phoenix Raceway. Like Bell, he has finished every race while driving for multiple teams. He has an average finish of 20.5, which only includes one top-10 finish. Though it was a runner-up behind Chase Briscoe during the race back in March.
Bell and Chastain will now return to Phoenix Raceway with an opportunity to surpass the previous performances. They will each have more on the line as they set out to win the race and deliver a championship to their respective organizations. They will pursue this goal while going toe-to-toe with past champions.