Getty Bradley Beal guarding his friend, Jayson Tatum
In recent months, Bradley Beal’s name has been on the lips of Celtics fans, as they dream of the team adding a third star alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. We’ve been here before, though, adding an offensive-minded third star, and things didn’t work out, so why would it be different this time around?
Is it because Beal is Tatum’s best friend? Or maybe because the Celtics have a new head coach in Ime Udoka? Or perhaps it’s due to the team’s young core having matured since their last venture into a big-three era ended when Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker made their short trips to New York.
Beal is one of the best scorers in the NBA; there’s no doubt about it. Despite his early struggles this season, Tatum is ascending to superstar status, and Brown continues to defy expectations as he marches up the league-wide player rankings. On paper, the trio of Beal, Brown, and Tatum would be a ferocious prospect, capable of rivaling the offensive powerhouse in Brooklyn and hanging with the giants in Los Angeles.
Alas, paper doesn’t play basketball games.
First of all, there’s the question of finances and how adding Beal’s salary to the roster would decimate their bench unit. Tatum is in the first year of his $163 million extension, and his salary will rise incrementally over the next five years.
Brown is in the second year of his extension, where he’s earning $106 million over four years.
Adding Beal, who is max-contract eligible, is not only costly, it’s also challenging on the open market. The Celtics’ decision to extend Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, and Josh Richardson effectively ended their ability to free up the necessary cap space in the coming summer. Still, it provided Boston with multiple team-friendly contracts that can be used as make-weights in any potential deal.
The most likely outcome would be a sign-and-trade, where Beal could ink a max contract before being traded to the Celtics, ensuring the Washington Wizards get assets in return for their superstar. But then, unless Beal categorically refuses to sign elsewhere, there’s no guarantee Boston provides the best trade package for the St. Louis native.
All this is to say that acquiring Beal comes with its own set of pitfalls, and rebuilding the roster would become more difficult due to the cap hit his signature would command. Yes, the Celtics would have a big three, but it would come at the cost of depth, and we’ve seen how top-heavy teams fare if the injury bug bites.
Too many mouths to feed
Tatum and Brown are ball-dominant wings, which require high usage rates to be at their best; Beal is no different. Per NBA Stats, Tatum is averaging 73.6 touches per game, Brown 60.4, and Beal 71.9 – there would need to be a lot of compromising between the three of them if they were to figure out a practical offensive harmony.
Inevitably, Beal, Brown, and Tatum would need to accept stretches of playing off-ball, either in a catch-and-shoot role or as part of a fluid motion offense. When diving into Instat’s tracking data, it quickly becomes apparent that only Brown is likely to adjust to this role easily. Last season, 12.8% of Brown’s offense came from catch-and-shoot opportunities, while 19.1% came in transition. The numbers aren’t as encouraging for Tatum and Beal.
Tatum had a total of 98 catch-and-shoot possessions (5.6% of his total offense) but had almost 50% of his offensive coming from ball-dominant isolation and pick-and-roll actions.
Beal didn’t fare much better, with 29.8% of his offense coming as the ball-handler in pick-and-roll situations. However, Beal did operate as a movement shooter off screens 263 times (14.4% of his total offense.)
Figuring out how to co-exist isn’t easy for star players. You only have to look at Tatum and Bown’s recent growing pains to understand how difficult it can be. Adding in another mouth to feed will only serve to further complicate the offensive hierarchy within the Celtics locker room.
Throwing Caution to the Wind
Here’s the thing: When you have an opportunity to develop a big-three full of young, hungry generational talents, you don’t worry about how they fit together; that’s for the coach to figure out. To win in the NBA, you either need two top-5 talents playing together (see Anthony Davis and LeBron James) or a trio of highly gifted players who can strike fear into the heart of a defense every night.
The Celtics have chased a big three in recent history when they paired Irving, Gordon Hayward, and Tatum together, albeit unknowingly due to Tatum’s rapid development. Then they did it again when they signed Kemba Walker, yet neither of these rosters made it out of the Eastern Conference Finals for one reason or another.
Now, this is Tatum and Brown’s team, and they want to win. Adding Bradley Beal would go a long way to granting that wish for success, but it isn’t a guarantee. Yet, it does guarantee a happy Tatum, which could be the difference between him being a Celtic for life, or teaming up with Beal elsewhere in the league in the future.
“It’s something I’ve always dreamed about. We didn’t get the opportunity with the USA team. Still, we did get to play with each other in the All-Star game last year, which was a special moment,” Tatum said when asked about potentially teaming up with Beal in the future, “Just like playing in the NBA with your big brother, who wouldn’t want that?”
Furthermore, filling your bench with ring-chasing veteran role players becomes an easy task; just look at the Brooklyn Nets bench for proof.
So, while the jury is out on if Beal would improve the Celtics or get them any closer to raising banner 18 if the opportunity to acquire Beal arises in the near future, you can bet your bottom dollar the Celtics will do everything in their power to bring him to the TD Garden. You can figure the rest out on the fly because nothing says winning like a scoring supernova of a big three.