Getty Miami Heat sharpshooter Duncan Robinson reacts to a call during the 2020 NBA Finals.
Over the course of an 82-game NBA season, every player encounters their ups and downs. The thing is a gauntlet, after all; a masochistic exercise best left to the razor-focused and/or clinically insane. However, Miami Heat sharpshooter Duncan Robinson has taken things to the extreme this season.
After holding down a spot as one of the game’s elite floor-spacers and a legit flamethrower over the previous two seasons, Robinson has looked more like a dumpster fire for much of 2021-22.
As of this writing, the 27-year-old is at just 39.7% efficacy on his field-goal attempts and 36.1% from deep. Consequently, trade consideration that wasn’t even a thought before the year has suddenly bubbled up.
While Robinson’s shooting (or the recent lack of it) is a problem, it may not be the big red flag many are making it out to be. Shooters of all shapes and sizes — even the greatest one of all time in Steph Curry — go through slumps, and they usually shake them.
The bigger issue may be his sudden disappearance as a fourth-quarter contributor.
Robinson Has Been a Fourth-Quarter Ghost
Over the Heat’s last three games, Robinson has played a grand total of five fourth-quarter minutes. He didn’t hit the court in the fourth at all during Miami’s losses to the Toronto Raptors on January 29 and February 1. One of those games was the three-overtime classic, the other a four-point heartbreaker.
In the one contest where head coach Erik Spoelstra did allow Robinson to make a final-frame appearance — January 31 at the Boston Celtics — the Heat lost by 30.
One could point this as a case of small-sample-size theatre, but they’d be wrong. Robinson’s contributions during the fourth quarter, a.k.a. winning time, have been trending the wrong way for a while now. Not only is Coach Spo trusting him less minutes, but the minutes he’s actually getting are hurting the team.
After averaging 7.9 minutes per fourth quarter last season and 8.1 in 2019-20, Robinson is down to 6.3 this season. Meanwhile — and much more disturbingly — his on/off numbers have tanked as well.
In ’19-20, the Heat were 12.1 points per 100 possessions better (in terms of net swing) in the fourth with Robinson on the court. Last season, that number ballooned to 19.9 pts./100 poss. Now, he has a fourth-quarter net rating of minus-0.4 when he’s on the court and 2.5 when he’s sitting.
The latest Heat news straight to your inbox! Join the Heavy on Heat newsletter here!
Join Heavy on Heat!What Does It All Mean?!
For the glass-half-full crowd, Robinson’s incredible fourth-quarter value in years past is worth noting. The man was seemingly built for the clutch, making a tremendous positive impact down the stretch with his mere presence.
And that’s the larger sample size by far, so there’s reason to be hopeful he can get back to his winning ways.
Even if he can’t, though, the Heat have managed to win without him this season anyway. Max Strus and Caleb Vincent are emerging, Tyler Herro has played like an All-Star; there are other people available to support Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry when it matters most.
If the Heat don’t want Robinson’s $90 million extension looking worse than it does right now amid his slump, however, he needs to rediscover his clutch assassin ways. And he needs to do it sooner rather than later, or his alleged trade bait status may become an actual thing.
READ NEXT: