Getty The New England Patriots are tipped to draft a "superior" QB, amid rumors they favor Michigan's J.J. McCarthy.
Buzz has been steadily growing the New England Patriots will select Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy third overall in the 2024 NFL draft, but the Pats “should be running to the podium” for North Carolina passer Drake Maye, instead.
That’s the view of The 33rd Team’s Marcus Mosher. He acknowledges the Patriots taking McCarthy “has been the scuttlebutt around the league, but we aren’t buying it.”
Mosher’s not convinced because “Drake Maye is the superior quarterback prospect.”
If Maye lives up to that billing, he can be the answer to New England’s search for a new franchise QB. A search that’s gone nowhere since Tom Brady walked away from the team in 2020.
Drake Maye a Logical Pick Over J.J. McCarthy
There’s logic to the Patriots wasting little time calling Maye’s name. He’s well within their range, with the Chicago Bears tipped to select Caleb Williams first overall, before the Washington Commanders select Jayden Daniels.
Maye is the next biggest name among this year’s quarterback class. He’s earned the status after a final season with the Tar Heels that yielded 24 touchdown passes, compared to just nine interceptions, per Sports Reference.
Although his numbers were down from 2022, Maye’s arm strength remained elite. Evidenced by a career big-time throw rate of 8.2 percent, the second-highest attributed by PFF College since 2014.
Highest Career Big Time Throw Rates🚀
Putting that number into a more specific context, Pro Football Focus’ Trevor Sikkema rates Maye as the best in class throwing over the middle. He focused on “throws of 10-20 yards downfield and between the numbers.”
Sikkema found that Maye “led the nation with 61 first downs targeting that area and had a strong 132.8 quarterback rating.”
Those statistics are good news for the newest member of the Patriots’ receiving corps, K.J. Osborn. He’s arrived from the Minnesota Vikings on a one-year deal worth $4 million after being productive “on crossers and digs” last season, according to Taylor Kyles of Patriots on CLNS.
Most of K.J. Osborn’s production last season came on crossers and digs. These were typically vs zone, but he did a nice job leaning into defenders and snapping off routes to separate vs man
Best play was a post where he put the CB in a blender and went up for a contested grab
Osborn isn’t the only Patriots wideout capable of thriving between the hashmarks. The same can be said of Kendrick Bourne, JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeMario Douglas.
Putting Maye, and what Sikkema calls his “NFL-caliber velocity,” into an offense with these receivers would expand a previously pedestrian passing game. That’s the theory, anyway, but a lot hinges on how the Patriots compare Maye to McCarthy.
J.J. McCarthy to Patriots Rumors Grow, but Drake Maye the Safer Choice
Conversations between Mike Sando of The Athletic and six unnamed executives from around the league added fuel to the McCarthy and Patriots rumors. Sando noted that while all of the execs asked believe the Pats will draft a QB, “Maye was the choice more by default than because anyone thought New England was particularly high on him.”
Instead, one general manager involved in these conversations explained why Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf might select McCarthy: “I think they go quarterback. Do they take a shot at J.J.? Eliot won’t be afraid to if he believes in the player.”
Whether Wolf believes in McCarthy enough to use the third-overall pick might depend on how he judges the talent around him at Michigan.
As Jeff Bell of FootballGuys put it, McCarthy had more to work with and therefore was asked to do less than Maye: “Other than Tez Walker, I’m not sure what North Carolina player is playing for Michigan. One player was asked to be his entire team and the other just didn’t have to mess up.”
Looking at raw stats of Drake Maye and JJ McCarthy is about as apples and oranges as it comes.
Other than Tez Walker, I’m not sure what North Carolina player is playing for Michigan.
One player was asked to be his entire team and the other just didn’t have to mess up.
That’s a judgment call, but since Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer reported none of the Patriots, Bears and Commanders “have shown an appetite for trading one of those picks,” Wolf would have to make a relative reach to take McCarthy.
It would be quite the risk for Wolf in his first year as the de facto GM of the Patriots. Wolf and rookie head coach Jerod Mayo already face a tall task replacing six-time Super Bowl winner Bill Belichick.
Rolling the dice on another Michigan QB will be tempting after how handsomely the 199th selection in 2000 paid off with Brady. Yet, Wolf and Mayo would be wise to err on the side of caution with a draft pick of this importance.