Getty Quarterback Mac Jones (left) could be out if the Patriots make a Kyler Murray trade
It would be impossible to trade an NFL quarterback coming off a major injury who was given a whale of a $230 million contract, one with $160 million in guaranteed money. Right? Well, Jeff Howe of The Athletic is floating that very possibility—a Kyler Murray trade—and the Patriots are a potential target, however much a longshot a deal might be.
Writing on Friday, Howe noted that, heading into the offseason, there will be a number of teams looking for quarterback help, and assuming Mac Jones does not revive his status here in New England, the Patriots could be one of those teams. That’s where Kyler Murray comes in.
The contract is hefty. But, Howe wrote, “There is logic behind acquiring Murray, though. Looking at the top 11 of the 2024 draft order, there’s a case to be made for each team in the top 10 to take a quarterback. Of course, there aren’t enough quarterbacks to go around at that point.
“Most of those QB-needy teams aren’t heavily invested in the position for the long term. So if, let’s say, the New England Patriots, Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Falcons aren’t able to fill their needs in the draft, Murray could be the next best option.”
Money the Big Factor in a Patriots-Kyler Murray Trade
That depends on how much money the Cardinals would be willing to eat in making a Kyler Murray trade, though. According to Spotrac, Murray currently has $97 million in dead cap money on his contract, but Howe writes that the Cardinals would be stuck with $46 million of that in a deal. That’s a lot for the team to take on, when they are essentially paying the player to perform for another team.
That is an advantage for the Patriots, though. They are projected to have the most cap space in the league next offseason.
Making it more difficult for the Cardinals to trade Murray is the fact that the team would have to make a decision on a deal by March 17, when a roster bonus of $11.9 million goes into effect for 2025. That’s a long way from the April 25 NFL draft, and teams simply won’t be ready to make a commitment to Murray like that at that point of the offseason.
Besides, as one NFL executive pointed out, if teams already know the Cardinals want to be rid of Murray at that point, they could take the chance that Arizona simply waives him. A trade would only help the Cardinals.
“As another team, why would I do that?” an executive told Howe. “They’d probably just cut him.”
Second-Half Performance Could Determine a Deal
Before the possibility of Murray being traded, though, comes finding out what he can do on the field. He will make his first start on Sunday in 11 months, now that he is recovered from surgery on the ACL he tore in December 2023.
If he shows he can return to the same form that had him earn Pro Bowl spots in 2020 and 2021, when he had a 100.6 quarterback rating, good for eighth in the NFL, teams might be willing to consider making a trade for him.
The Patriots could be among those teams. They are among the teams that have enough cap room in 2024 to absorb Murray’s deal, and the more of that money they’d be willing to take on, the less draft capital they’d have to send to Arizona in return.
But that depends, in part, on what direction the Patriots go after this year. If Bill Belichick returns as coach, would he be willing to move on from Jones, who has been his top project offensive of the post-Tom Brady era? Jones earned a Pro Bowl spot as a rookie but has struggled to improve from there.
And, finally, there is the issue of the Cardinals themselves. They could land one of the top overall picks in the 2024 NFL draft, with a chance at drafting Caleb Williams But if Murray plays well in the second half of this season, why not just keep him? Don’t make a Kyler Murray trade, make a draft pick trade.
There are a lot of variables. But at least, a Murray trade to the Patriots is an intriguing possibility.