Giants-Jaguars Betting Line Swings in Unexpected Direction

Brian Daboll

Getty New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll has his team off to a 5-1 start.

When the 5-1 New York Giants opened as 2.5-point underdogs on the road against the 2-4 Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 7, many believed the betting line would correct itself and shrink as the week went on.

Instead, the line has swung in the opposite direction. On Thursday, Oct. 20, the line at Caesars Sportsbook widened and the Giants are now 3-point underdogs heading into Jacksonville.

via Jordan Raanan of ESPN:

“The line has only moved in Jacksonville’s favor so far,” Raanan wrote on Twitter. “Amazing.”

Home-field advantage typically accounts for a few points in the eyes of NFL oddsmakers, but rarely do you see a 2-4 team favored to beat a 5-1 team by three points  — regardless of where the game is being played. For some reason, those oddsmakers do not have a lot of faith in the Giants this week.

The Jaguars have only covered the spread in two out of six games this season, according to TeamRankings.com, while the Giants have covered in all but one outing. The only team with a better record than New York against the spread this season is the Atlanta Falcons (6-0 ATS).

Now, let’s dive a little deeper and see how the Giants have fared week-by-week against the spread.


How the Giants Have Performed Against the Spread in 2022

As mentioned above, the Giants have a 5-1 overall record and a 5-1 record against the spread. Below is a table breaking down how they have performed each week.

Week Opponent Spread Covered?
1 at Titans +5.5 Yes
2 vs. Panthers +1.0 Yes
3 vs. Cowboys -1.0 No
4 vs. Bears -3.0 Yes
5 vs. Packers (London) +9.0 Yes
6 vs. Ravens +5.5 Yes
7 at Jaguars +3.0 ???

Although the Giants are riding a three-game winning streak and won outright as underdogs each of the past two weeks, the NFL oddsmakers aren’t leaning into New York’s perceived momentum heading into Week 7. Some fans are chalking this up to blatant disrespect, while others are wondering whether Las Vegas knows something the rest of us do not.

ESPN’s matchup predictor echoes the oddsmakers, by the way, as it currently gives the Giants just a 26.7 percent chance of victory against the Jaguars on Sunday.


Are Injuries Playing into the Giants-Jaguars Betting Line?

The Giants are a little banged up heading into Week 7, but that has been the norm for them so far this season. Starting left tackle Andrew Thomas (elbow) and center Jon Feliciano (groin) both landed on the injury report this week, but they both participated on a limited basis during Wednesday’s practice.

Star running back Saquon Barkley is still dealing with a shoulder injury suffered in London against the Packers, but that didn’t stop him from racking up 25 touches in the win over the Ravens last weekend. Wide receivers Kenny Golladay (knee) and Kadarius Toney (hamstring) don’t seem likely to play against the Jaguars, but the Giants have made it to 5-1 without much of an impact from either one of those alleged playmakers.

On top of all that, if outside linebacker Azeez Ojulari (calf) returns this week, the Giants could have all four starting members of their formidable defensive front — Ojulari, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence — healthy and on the field together for the first time all season in Week 7.

Despite their hot start and the progress they seem to be making on the injury front, the Giants are still 3-point underdogs against the Jaguars.

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