Cardinals Advised to ‘Decline’ Kyler Murray’s Option

Kyler Murray’s contract situation continues to dominate the Arizona Cardinals’ offseason. It looks as though the franchise lacks leverage and needs to pay up for a star quarterback who has helped transform the team from losers to playoff contenders.

Murray and his agent have attempted to back the Cardinals into a corner. They want to force general manager Steve Keim’s hand because Murray is three years into his rookie deal and some of his contemporaries have cashed in at this stage.

Keim could pick up Murray’s fifth-year option, but the Cards may be better served declining that option. It’s the view of one analytics site that has compiled a list of bold moves each team can make this offseason, starting with the Cardinals saying no to Murray.

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Inconsistent Numbers Mean Declining Makes Sense

Putting a list together for ESPN, Football Outsiders made a sound argument for not activating Murray’s fifth-year option. The central thesis concerns Murray’s inconsistent numbers, specifically, the dip in his performances during the second half of seasons:

For starters, there’s Murray’s performance in that playoff game, when his 34 passes gained only 137 yards with a pair of interceptions (including a brutally bad pick-six) in a 34-11 loss to the Rams. That result put an ugly end to a terrible slump for the Cardinals, who started 7-0 before collapsing down the stretch. Worse, it was the second straight season Murray and the Cards fell apart in the second half of the season. In his career, Murray has averaged 7.70 yards per throw in September and October, and Arizona has gone 15-8-1 in his starts. But Murray’s average drops by nearly a full yard to an ominous 6.66 in November, December and January, when he has gone 7-16 as a starter.

Keim and the Cardinals are advised to avoid a similar situation to the one the Cleveland Browns find themselves in with Baker Mayfield. Instead, Football Outsiders urge the Cards to avoid the cost of exercising Murray’s option: “The Cardinals have even more at stake — should they pick up Murray’s fifth-year option, it would cost them close to $29 million in 2023. That’s an expensive risk to take, even ignoring the noise that has swirled around Murray since the Rams loss. Arizona might be better off letting the quarterback’s contract expire after the 2022 season.”

There’s a compelling argument for making Murray prove he deserves the type of deal he and his agent have lobbied for this offseason. Their not-so subtle PR campaign began with Murray scrubbing any mention of the Cardinals from his social media accounts.

Things were ratcheted up a notch when Murray’s agent, Erik Burkhardt, released a statement on Monday, February 28, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Burkhardt outlined his client’s desire for a new deal “in-line with the current QB market:”

The market referred to is the one set by Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills. He signed a six-year contract worth $258 million in 2021.

Murray’s deal would top even those numbers, according to Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus:

Murray still has a ways to go to prove he deserves that kind of money, even if his raw talent is obvious.

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Murray’s Skills Deserve Franchise QB Pay

Murray’s talents should be obvious to everybody by now, despite any reservations about his erratic statistics. There are also concerns about his size and the 5’10”, 207-pounder’s injury record.

Murray has topped 3700 yards through the air every year he’s been in the NFL. He has the ability to stay efficient throwing underneath, as well as to stretch the field vertically, per ESPN’s Josh Weinfuss citing Next Gen Stats:

Defenses are also still wary about Murray’s considerable threat as a runner. Yes, there are things he can improve, but the Cardinals have a better chance to win with the 24-year-old operating the offense.

While he only has one playoff appearance on his CV, it’s easy to forget Murray joined a franchise that was 3-13 in 2018. Keim would be smart to trust Murray to take them back to the playoffs again in his fourth season.

The Cardinals using the fifth-year option isn’t what Murray and Burkhardt are hoping for, but Keim has already put the idea firmly on the table, though, per Pro Football Network’s Adam Beasley:

Activating the option may kick the contract dilemma down the road, but it would at least provide quarterback and franchise a measure of security in the short term.

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