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John Harbaugh made the right call to go for a touchdown on 4th-and-goal from the two-yard line against the Buffalo Bills in Week 4. The Baltimore Ravens only came up empty handed because franchise quarterback Lamar Jackson “didn’t execute,” despite having a “perfect play” to get a receiver open in the end zone.
That’s the view of a former Super Bowl-winning offensive coordinator who designed the famed ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ in 1999. This aggressive play caller applauded Harbaugh’s decision to go for it, but questioned how Jackson read the coverage.
Jackson’s Failings More at Fault Than Harbaugh’s Analytics
Mike Martz doesn’t think Harbaugh was wrong to reject what would’ve been a chip-shot field goal for Justin Tucker, in favor of going for a touchdown. Instead, Martz’s complaints concern Jackson’s actions at the goal-line.
The man who built an offensive juggernaut with the St. Louis Rams explained what went wrong for the Ravens in a video breakdown for The 33rd Team. Martz focused on Jackson, saying the quarterback, “for some reason, comes off and looks to the left. He’s got nothing over there.”
Jackson should have looked to the right, where the Ravens had what Martz called “exactly what you want for this coverage.” He went on to outline how wide receiver Devin Duvernay switched released from out to in and pushed safety Jordan Poyer back before breaking to the corner, where he was wide open.
Martz felt this should have been “just pitch and catch,” provided Jackson threw the ball on his “fourth or fifth step.” Unfortunately for the Ravens, Jackson “either panicked or just misread the coverage,” according to Martz.
The oversight led to Poyer intercepting Jackson’s pass and giving possession back to Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense with the score tied at 20-20 apiece. Allen directed a perfect two-minute drill, albeit one aided by a controversial roughing the passer penalty, and positioned Tyler Bass to kick the game-winner from 21 yards.
Fans and players were critical of Harbaugh’s decision to ignore easy points, but Martz thinks the Ravens’ head coach was right to believe his team needed a touchdown to win. It’s a view supported by the analytics, per ESPN’s Jamison Hensley: “According to ESPN’s win probability model, the Ravens had a 73.5% win probability by going for the touchdown and a 69.7% win probability by kicking a field goal.”
Either way, putting the focus on Jackson’s decision-making offers a reminder of the pressure the quarterback is under during a contract year.
Jackson’s Next Contract Depends on Plays Like These
Martz is often a controversial figure because of his failure to replicate the success he had with Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Issac Bruce. Disappointing stints calling offenses for the Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears tarnished his reputation somewhat, but Martz knows the passing game, so when he says the Ravens had the “perfect play’ designed, it’s worth paying attention.
Jackson not spotting a wide-open receiver early in the play’s development counts as a rare miss from a signal-caller who has mostly been on the money this season. In fact, money’s what it’s all about because Jackson is playing on the fifth year of his rookie deal and is in line either for a new contract, the franchise tag or free agency.
The Ravens have yet to offer Jackson the fully guaranteed deal he wants, but their resolve must surely weaken, based on numbers like these from StatMuse:
Yet, while Jackson’s production is off the charts, the Ravens are only 2-2. His miss at the goal-line led to his team dropping a second game in a row at home.
Jackson’s passing stats against the Bills were also modest. He completed 20 of 29 attempts, but for just 144 yards.
If he’s going to get paid at the level he wants, Jackson will need to make more decisive plays to beat contenders in the AFC like the Bills. Without those plays, the Ravens won’t be a playoff team and the front office will have the excuse it needs not to pay up.
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