Matt Nagy Cites Lack of Turnovers When Asked About Offense

Matt Nagy very likely be coaching his final game with the Chicago Bears when the team heads to Minnesota to face the Vikings Week 18.

The Bears have won two straight, beating two very bad teams in the New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks, but they are 22-26 since Nagy went 12-4 and won Coach of the Year his first season as head coach in 2018. He inherited a defense that finished first in the NFL in points allowed that year (17.7) — a defense that featured players like Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks in their respective primes.

The Bears also led the league in takeaways in 2018 with 36, a number that fell to 19 in 2019, 18 in 2020 and is down to 16 this season.

Nagy was brought in to give Chicago a formidable offensive attack, and he was also tasked with developing ex-Bears QB Mitch Trubisky. Neither of those things happened over his four seasons leading the team, and when he was asked about his squad’s offensive shortcomings, Nagy pointed at the declining defense, instead.

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Nagy on Turnover Margin: ‘That Matters’

Chicago is currently -11 in turnover margin, which is 28th out of 32 teams. The Bears are also 28th in total offense (304.3 ypg) and last in passing offense (183.8 ypg) this season, and they’re averaging under 18 points a game for the second time in Nagy’s tenure.

The team has scored 20 or fewer points in 31 of the 66 games Nagy has coached, and when Adam Hoge of NBC Sports asked him on January 3 why his offense never really took off in Chicago, the Bears coach gave the kind of meandering answer he has become known for.

“I think as the years go on there’s a lot of things that happen and for different reasons,” Nagy began. “I think every year is different whether it’s by position, whether it’s by schematics and whether it’s by opponents that you play,” he said, before bringing the defense into it. “I mean, you can take it to the next level if you look at in 2018 and you see the amount of turnovers and defensive touchdowns and special teams touchdowns regardless of how it affects the offense it can affect the team you know, complementary football in all three phases,” he said, adding:

There’s one big stat that matters, in the end, no matter what team you’re talking about: What’s the turnover margin? Do you take the football away on defense? And do you respect the football on offense? … You can have fun today and look at a good stat and check out the turnover margins in the NFL right now, and I’ll bet you there’s some playoff teams in the top 10. That matters. … You look at the Cincinnati Bengals game at the beginning of the season, we had four takeaways. And then there’s some times you go through a drought. That’s normal. That happens. When you go through a drought on defense and you don’t get takeaways, offensively, you’ve got to respect the football and you’ve got to score touchdowns. When you can get those three phases to have complementary football in the turnover margin category, you’ll have a higher percentage chance of winning.

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Nagy Is Fortunate He Inherited the Defense He Did

Nagy also discussed the difficulties of working with three different defensive coordinators (Vic Fangio in 2018, Chuck Pagano in 2019-20 and Sean Desai in 2021) in his four-year tenure — but he never mentioned the ways his struggling offensive units have put his aging defense in increasingly tough spots.

“The closest Nagy came to honing in on what he believes to be the answer for the Bears going 22-26 in the last three seasons was when he pointed out — carefully and in his typically roundabout manner — the instability on defense after his first season and the decline in takeaways. … Nagy also made sure to note the upheaval caused by having three defensive coordinators,” Jason Lieser of The Chicago Sun-Times wrote on January 3.

The truth is, Nagy is fortunate to have inherited the defense he did. Chicago’s defense was a large reason it went 12-4 in his first year, which led to Fangio’s departure, as he left for a head coaching gig in Denver. Nagy has been graceful in other areas, but when it comes to admitting his own offensive failures, he could use a bit of work.