Getty Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst (left) speaks with head coach Matt LaFleur (right) during an OTA practice session in May 2023.
The Green Bay Packers have contended from the beginning that trading Aaron Rodgers wasn’t the start of a rebuild. However, trading one of his good friends could be.
Alex Ballentine of Bleacher Report on Wednesday, July 5, pitched the notion that the Packers lean fully into a competitive rebuild and deal left tackle David Bakhtiari ahead of this season, or perhaps early on in the upcoming campaign should Green Bay struggle out of the gate.
While the choice to do so would be “shocking and unlikely,” in Ballentine’s words, the proposal is bolstered by an internal financial logic.
From a financial perspective, it would clear up a ton of space in 2024. Because we are past June 1, it would spread the dead cap charges over the next two seasons, costing the Packers $19.1 million but saving them $2.2 million against the cap. They would also avoid [Bakhtiari’s] $40.5 million cap hit next season.
Bakhtiari, 31, is still playing at a high level when healthy. He was 12th among all tackles graded by [Pro Football Focus] last season. But there’s a lot of injury history to be worried about. He played 11 games in 2022, one in 2021 and 12 in 2020 due to multiple injuries, including an ACL issue that ended up [requiring] three surgeries.
If things go south quickly or if the team finds itself comfortable with someone else at left tackle, it might be worth exploring a trade.
David Bakhtiari Unlikely Part of Packers’ Long-Term Future
GettyGreen Bay Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari has spoken openly about retirement in recent months.
At the moment, Bakhtiari appears crucial to the Packers’ transition from Rodgers to first-year starter and fourth-year NFL quarterback Jordan Love. But it is hard to envision the five-time All-Pro left tackle protecting Love’s blind side anywhere beyond the 2024 campaign.
As Ballentine mentioned, Bakhtiari has dealt with multiple serious injuries over his decade-long NFL tenure. He doesn’t have a Super Bowl ring, but the left tackle has done a ton of winning. He’s also made a ton of money. He was recently married and became a father, all of which closely preceded Bakhtiari’s first-ever public comments contemplating retirement, which he made in April.
The organization proceeded to trade away Bakhtiari’s wedding officiant and close friend (Rodgers) to the New York Jets just a couple of weeks after the lineman’s retirement rhetoric. Beyond that, Bakhtiari is a prime cut candidate next offseason considering how onerous his contract will be for a team trying to get younger and sleeker, both on the field and the balance sheet, as he enters the final campaign of a four-year, $92 million deal.
Packers Can Try to Replace David Bakhtiari with Yosh Nijman in Long-Term Value Play
GettyOffensive lineman Yosh Nijman of the Green Bay Packers blocks edge rusher Robert Quinn, formerly of the Chicago Bears, during an NFL game in September 2022.
To be clear, Bakhtiari is far and away the best offensive lineman on the Packers’ roster if he’s healthy, though that has become a considerably iffy “if” over the past few seasons.
Green Bay theoretically has the type of depth to replace Bakhtiari, and while the team would be unlikely to find a player with his ceiling — even as a soon-to-be 32-year-old about to embark on his 11th NFL campaign — the discrepancy in compensation between Bakhtiari and his replacement could create a value equation that leans in the Packers’ favor.
Bakhtiari is set to count north of $40 million against the team’s salary cap in 2024. Meanwhile, starting right tackle Yosuah Nijman will play the 2023 season on a $4.3 million second-round tender. He will hit free agency next spring and once he does, David DeChant of The Athletic believes Nijman can bank on $17 million annually, or even more, across a long-term contract.
That reality argues for trading Nijman now to clear his $4-plus million off the books for this year and using that extra cash to build on the roster in some other way. However, if Bakhtiari is truly on the chopping block in 2024, a better play might be the following three-step plan: deal Bakhtiari for significant draft compensation, transition Nijman to start at left tackle and elevate second-year lineman Zach Tom to the role of right tackle.
Tom is already competing with Nijman for snaps on the right side, and the Packers look solid everywhere else across the offensive line. The unit will lose its highest-end talent by trading Bakhtiari, but it will also become considerably cheaper — and arguably more durable — over the next two years.