Getty Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers walks off the field after the New York Jets recovered a fumble in the second quarter of a game at Lambeau Field on October 16, 2022 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
Welcome to Heavy In The Trenches, a weekly Wednesday column by Heavy NFL insider Matt Lombardo, bringing you insight on the latest storylines and rumblings around the league. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattLombardoNFL.
Six games into the season, the Green Bay Packers are badly out of sync.
Over the past two weeks alone, since halftime of Green Bay’s shocking 27-22 loss to the New York Giants in London, the Packers have scored just 10 points combined. Meanwhile, reigning MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers has tossed just 1 touchdown and been sacked 7.0 times over the past six quarters.
Green Bay entered this season with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, viewed as one of the most complete rosters in the NFC, with one of the all-time great quarterbacks leading the charge. But, off to a 3-3 start, already trailing the division-leading Minnesota Vikings by two games with one loss to their archrivals already on the ledger, is it time to worry about Rodgers and the Packers? Heavy spoke to current NFL coaches, executives, and scouts to get a sense of how worried Green Bay should be.
“I really think the Packers are going to be fine,” a long-time NFL personnel evaluator told Heavy. “People have to remember, it’s a marathon, not a sprint. They can still get back in this thing. It’s a long way from over.”
In other words, R-E-L-A-X. Sound familiar?
Will that mentality work again?
While the Packers have the luxury of time, with 11 more games remaining, Green Bay faces the seventh-toughest remaining schedule. The Packers’ opponents boast a .556 winning percentage as Rodgers and company have contests looming against NFL heavyweights like the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams and AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans.
“They still have the quarterback,” the evaluator stressed. “That’s what matters the most. Veterans like Aaron, now that there are 17 games, 18 weekends, this season lasts forever. They know when to hit it and not hit it, not to peak too early. I think veteran teams like Green Bay will be fine. That quarterback makes everyone around him better.”
Rodgers certainly has a lengthy track record of regular season success, leading the Packers to the NFL playoffs 11 times with a Super Bowl title and four NFC Championship Game losses. However, Davante Adams isn’t walking out of that tunnel and onto the Frozen Tundra.
Rookie wide receivers Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson’s maiden NFL voyage have certainly had moments that should inspire belief this offense make a playoff push, but neither has produced more than 73 receiving yards in a single game, and Doubs’ 4 total touchdowns ties Allen Lazard for the team-high.
“They may win with those receivers someday,” an NFC executive told Heavy. “Not sure they’re good enough today.”
Green Bay’s concerns aren’t limited to head coach Matt LaFleur and Rodgers not being on the same page, or growing pains with a suddenly young receiving corps. Defensively, this was thought to be one of the most talented and complete units in the league. Even the Packers’ defense has underperformed.
For the past two weeks, the Packers have looked like a broken team.
“They’re awful right now,” a current NFL coach told Heavy, on the condition of anonymity to speak freely about another team. “They’re bad on defense, bad on offense. Maybe the biggest problem is that when players talk about retirement; like Rodgers and Brady have, they already have one foot out the door. That’s just been my experience.”
Beyond an uncharacteristically inconsistent start to the season for Rodgers (Rodgers ranks 15th in passing yards and 10th in touchdown passes), Green Bay’s issues certainly seem to run deeper.
Expected to be Green Bay’s backbone and one of the deepest defenses in the league, the Packers’ defense has been neither.
Entering Week 7, the Packers are allowing 20.5 points per game (15th in the NFL), teams are running at will on the Packers as Green Bay’s rushing defense is allowing 135.2 rushing yards per game (27th in the NFL), and the Packers rank 20th in total DVOA at Football Outsiders, a metric that measures the success or failure of every single play while adjusting for strength of schedule.
There might not be any quick or easy fixes for what ails the Packers; other than time. Maybe.
“It seems like all three phases are problematic for them right now,” an AFC South scout told Heavy. “Special teams have been a major problem going back to the playoffs last year, the offense isn’t sustaining drives, which leads to the defense getting worn down.
“The Jets bullied them in all three phases on Sunday. What’s stopping other teams, even more talented teams from doing the same?”
Green Bay head coach Matt LeFleur, Rodgers and the Packers better figure that out. In a hurry.
Chase Claypool’s Resurgence Lifts Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense desperately needed a spark.
One week removed from one of the more lopsided losses in Steelers history, a 38-3 dismantling at the hands of the Bills, and leading 10-9 at halftime but with the offense largely stuck in neutral, Chase Claypool had his strongest performance of the season.
Catching all seven of his targets, including five in the second half, Claypool saved his best for last; a six-yard touchdown reception from quarterback Mitchell Trubisky with 3:43 remaining that was the eventual game-winner, Pittsburgh 20, Tom Brady’s Buccaneers 18.
“It really was much-needed,” Claypool told Heavy, during an October 18 appearance on Heavy’s The Matt Lombardo Show, appearing on behalf of Tide. “The win itself. And, it was a good performance on top of that. It was super nice to be able to put that full game together as a team. A big weight was lifted off our shoulders, a little bit.”
While it was Trubisky who hit Claypool for the game-winner, first-round rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett is Pittsburgh’s biggest reason for optimism and best hope for a bright future in the Iron City.
In three appearances this season, while the results might not have indicated it, Pickett has looked the part and looked comfortable with the poise of a veteran in the pocket. Pickett has completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 514 yards with one touchdown to four interceptions and rushing for 41 yards and two scores.
Claypool has spent a significant amount of time running routes for Pickett, as the two went through minicamp and training camp leading into this season. He says it’s easy to see Pickett’s potential.
“The biggest thing that Kenny [Pickett] has going for him is his confidence,” Claypool said. “Especially in his game-play. He’s one of the most confident dudes that I’ve ever met. I think you kind of need to have that when you’re a quarterback. Especially for a team like the Steelers, because things aren’t always going to be easy.”
With myriad issues on offense, in a football-crazed market, Pickett may have some growing pains to go through this season. Pickett’s confidence, and reliable receivers like Claypool, star Diontae Johnson and impact rookie George Pickens could prove the foundation for future success in Pittsburgh.
Power Rankings
1. Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)
2. Buffalo Bills (5-1)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (4-2)
4. Minnesota Vikings (5-1)
5. Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)
6. New York Giants (5-1)
7. New York Jets (4-2)
8. Los Angeles Chargers( 4-2)
9. Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3)
Quote of the Week
“I think guys that are living off the Super Bowl are living in a fantasy land, You’ve gotta get your hands dirty and go to work like everybody else.” – Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles
Much like the Green Bay Packers, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the luxury of playing in a division that seemingly offers little resistance on the path to the postseason.
But, if the Buccaneers are going to make a run at a second Super Bowl berth in the past three years, it’s probably time to wake up. Or catch the first flight out of “fantasy land.”
After watching for six weeks, some aren’t convinced the Buccaneers will be able to simply flick a switch this time around.
“Two years ago Tampa was the team to beat in the NFC, and maybe the whole league, because of the quarterback,” a former NFL general manager told Heavy. “But the quarterback is old, starting to fall apart a bit, and going south in a hurry.”
Brady is certainly trying to hang on, but he has taken significant punishment in the pocket the past several weeks against the Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, and Pittsburgh Steelers.
In those three contests alone, Brady has absorbed 14 quarterback hits. The cumulative effect started to show itself Sunday in Pittsburgh, as Brady managed just 25-of-40 passing for 243 yards and a touchdown against the NFL’s 29th-ranked passing defense.
While Brady enters Week 7 as the No. 5 leading passer in the NFL, his total yards only tell part of the story. Brady currently ranks just 24th in Yards Per Attempt, the measure most teams must succinctly judge quarterbacks by. He’s also been sacked 9 times, putting him on pace for the 10th most sacks he’s absorbed in a season … at age 45.
“They’re trying to survive with Tom Brady,” the ex-GM said. “And they can’t. They’re not going to.”
Even if Brady is beginning to decline, after hoisting the Lombardi Trophy six times, the Buccaneers still have some of the pieces in place to make a second-half surge, presuming the likes of receivers Chris Godwin and Julio Jones can get and stay healthy.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Buccaneers boast the No. 3 ranked defensive DVOA in the league — a metric that evaluates the success or failure of every play, while adjusting for strength of schedule, but Tampa’s offense comes in at just No. 16.
“When it comes to defensive coaches,” an NFC quarterbacks coach told Heavy. “There’s Todd Bowles, and there’s everybody else. He’s legitimately that good.”
Bowles is certainly a defensive mastermind, as illustrated by his game plan to shut down Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2021 Super Bowl. But, Brady and the offense need to start pulling their weight or they just may drag Tampa down.
Final Thought
I’m all-in on Brian Daboll’s New York Giants.
It would be easy to look at the Giants’ fast 5-1 start, which now includes victories at the Titans, in London over the Packers, and against Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens, and chalk it up to Daboll’s aggressiveness driving a winning culture that’s feeding on results.
But, that would sell the job this coaching staff is doing significantly short.
Winning begets winning, there is little doubt about that, but what Daboll, defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale, offensive coordinator Mike Kafka and staff have been able to get out of this particular roster from a results and improvement standpoint have been remarkable.
Pro Football Focus points out the Giants’ offensive line has kept Daniel Jones clean on 53.5% of his dropbacks, and that Jones has been prolific when blitzed as when teams don’t bring extra pressure; two touchdowns and zero interceptions when blitz, three touchdowns and two interceptions with a clean pocket.
Moreover, on offense, Kafka has tapped into one of Jones’ strengths, the play-action pass, with Jones producing a 91.9 grade in those situations with three touchdowns to zero picks.
Saquon Barkley has returned to form, largely within a scheme that emphasizes getting him the football in space. As a result, Barkley is now averaging a whopping 3.47 yards after contact per attempt and has already rattled off 13 explosive runs of 10 yards or more, while forcing 20 missed tackles.
This coaching staff is coaching to its players’ strengths, regardless of talent or lack thereof across the roster.
Defensively, Martindale’s troops have made huge plays at the end of games in consecutive weeks against playoff-caliber rosters; a Julian Love interception that dashed the Ravens’ hopes, and safety Xavier McKinney screaming off the edge to bat down an Aaron Rodgers 4th down pass to cap New York’s upset of the Packers in London.
Daboll has the Giants believing. This staff has found a way to put its players in positions via timely blitzes and smart aggressive offensive play calls, to make the biggest plays in the game’s biggest moments.
New York’s culture was set during a training camp practice in August 2022, when Daboll tore up the 25-play red-zone period script, opting instead to run the ball on upwards of 20-plus plays, simply to send a message.
According to a league source, that message was simple; “this is going to be a tough and physical football team.”
So far, Daboll’s Giants are exactly that.
The Giants have a puncher’s chance, because outside of the division rival Philadelphia Eagles, the NFC presents nothing but opportunity. And New York’s schedule may offer the biggest opportunity of all to climb into — and remain a player in the postseason race.
Over the next six weeks alone, the Giants’ opponents; the Jaguars, Seahawks, Texans, Cowboys, and Commanders boast a combined 13-20-1 record.
With five wins already tucked safely away, even if New York only wins its next three games over this stretch, the NFC Wild Card is a very reasonable and realistic expectation for this team in a conference that is wide open.
The Giants brand of football travels. The playoffs, for the first time since 2016 just may be the final destination.