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There is a pattern developing in the NFL. Each of the last two Super Bowls have been won by teams with veteran quarterbacks playing their first season with the organization. First, Tom Brady did it with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020 and then Matthew Stafford repeated the feat with the Los Angeles Rams in February.
This upcoming season, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson, depending upon the length of his suspension, are the veteran quarterbacks aiming to win a championship in their first season with a new team. Despite Brady and Stafford’s success, NFL analyst Brent Sobleski of Bleacher Report argued the odds are stacked against any quarterback becoming the third straight signal caller to lead their brand new team to the Super Bowl.
“Recency bias will tell everyone that it can be done again,” Sobleski wrote. “Don’t count on it, though.
“An individual look at each situation with a new high-profile starter shows how they’re not necessarily in a better position today, next year or in five years than they previously were.”
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Colts ‘Fall Short’ Against the AFC Elite?
Sobleski argued that the Indianapolis Colts don’t necessarily need Ryan to compete for an MVP trophy but be “a steadying force” following the three years of upheaval since Andrew Luck’s retirement.
It’s curious that Sobleski made that argument because that’s why the acquisition of Ryan has been mostly commended this offseason. At 37 years old, Ryan is a long shot to win another MVP award, but he can still be a consistent force, as he’s thrown for at least 3,900 yards and 20 touchdowns in each of the last 11 seasons.
Sobleski, though, basically argued Ryan won’t lead the Colts to a Super Bowl because he and the Indianapolis receivers will not make up an offense as explosive as the best teams in the AFC.
Colts head coach Frank Reich spoke confidently about the team’s wide receivers when talking to reporters at OTAs on June 1. But Indianapolis is still expected to be a run-first offense with the NFL’s 2021 leading rusher Jonathan Taylor in the backfield.
How the Colts passing game gels is one of the question marks for the team heading into training camp. But if the team’s air attack is slow developing, it might not be because of the Colts new signal caller.
Short-Term Promise for Colts
As doubtful as Sobleski is that Ryan can lead Indianapolis on a deep playoff run, he wrote that Indianapolis does have “short-term promise.” A big reason for that promise is because of Indianapolis’ division rivals.
“With Derrick Henry coming off a foot injury, A.J. Brown being traded to the Philadelphia Eagles and holes at left guard and right tackle, the Tennessee Titans are prime regression candidate,” Sobleski wrote. “The Colts can take the division crown from their rival, and Ryan will be a big part of any success they experience.”
Although Sobleski expressed his questions about Ryan remaining an NFL starter beyond 2022, it would also help Indianapolis’ cause if Ryan can be the team’s starting quarterback for longer than one season. The Colts haven’t had the same player start behind center in Week 1 of back-to-back seasons since Luck in 2015 and 2016.
Colts owner Jim Irsay told beat writer Nate Atkins of The Indianapolis Star on April 30 that the organization sees Ryan as the team’s potential starting quarterback for three years.
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