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As the 2024 NFL season comes to a close, the complexion of the compensatory pick formula is nearly finalized — and it appears the Minnesota Vikings will receive a needed top-100 draft pick for April’s draft.
On January 21, Over The Cap’s Nick Korte published his final compensatory pick projection and has Minnesota landing a third-round pick in exchange for Kirk Cousins‘ departure.
ESPN’s Kevin Seifert said the compensatory pick would be in the middle of the third round around pick No. 97.
Teams qualify for compensatory picks by losing more qualifying free agents than they gain. Last offseason, the Vikings lost six qualifying free agents and signed five. Given the stature of Cousins’ four-year, $180 million deal, his contract was the sixth and final unmatched deal that should net Minnesota a third-round pick.
The Vikings have only three picks entering the draft — a first-round pick and a pair of fifth-rounders. A third-round pick would provide a foothold into Day 2 of the draft that Minnesota would otherwise have trouble becoming players in.
Poised to pick 24th overall in the upcoming draft, the Vikings are projected to have two top-100 picks that hopefully will become contributors next season.
Vikings Must Put Young Players to the Test
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GettyVikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah
In last year’s draft, the Vikings made several moves to land first-round rookies J.J. McCarthy and Dallas Turner, neither of whom were impact players in their first seasons.
Minnesota traded its 2024 second-, third- and fourth-round picks for the rights to the No. 17 pick to land Turner, while McCarthy required giving up a fifth-rounder to move from No. 11 to No. 10 in a trade with the New York Jets.
The Vikings have many roster holes to fill with 19 unrestricted free agents who played 100 or more snaps. According to Over The Cap, the Vikings have over 45% of their offensive and defensive snaps poised to leave in free agency — the most of any team in the league.
Minnesota is prepared to fill those spots with the sixth-most cap space to spend in March free agency.
However, there will be an onus on younger players to step up.
Turner’s rookie year was overshadowed by playing behind a pair of Pro Bowl edge rushers in Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, who both return for the 2025 season. Turner should still see an expanded role, likely in place of Pat Jones II, poised for free agency after being selected in the third round of the 2021 draft.
Missing the entire 2024 season after tearing his ACL in training camp, Mekhi Blackmon should fill one starting cornerback spot for a secondary with just one of five starters set to return in 2025.
Meanwhile, the hope of McCarthy winning the starting job at quarterback would be a boon to the entire Vikings roster.
J.J. McCarthy’s Readiness Preserves Vikings’ Roster-Building Potential
GettyJ.J. McCarthy #9 of the Minnesota Vikings warms up before a preseason game against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Last season, the Vikings splurged in free agency with the future cap space saved from not re-signing Cousins.
It resulted in many meaningful signings that transformed the defense overnight. Minnesota can do more of the same by not paying Sam Darnold.
However, Darnold opened the Vikings’ contention window by putting forth a Pro Bowl-caliber season — and Minnesota must meet those expectations in 2025.
If the Vikings are confident McCarthy can operate the offense at a similar level to Darnold in Year 1, they would benefit from using almost all their cap space to fortify the roster.
However, if Minnesota is unsure and wants the higher degree of certainty with Darnold, it’s going to cost either the $41 million franchise tag that would eat over half of their available cap space to use in free agency.
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