Ex-Vikings GM Predicts Team to Overpay for McCarthy After Draft Blunder

The Minnesota Vikings have maintained that acquiring an additional first-round pick from the Houston Texans was a means of having more “flexibility” in their pursuit for a future franchise quarterback.

However, the rest of the NFL isn’t buying it — and why should they? The Vikings parted ways with Kirk Cousins and have positioned themselves to have the best trade package available of any team looking to trade up and land a quarterback in this year’s draft.

But that comes with the stipulation that another team has to be what Kevin O’Connell called “complicit” in a trade.

If the Washington Commanders and New England Patriots do not bend to make a deal and instead select their own quarterback prospect, the Vikings could become desperate.

Former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman predicted the team to overpay to land Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, the No. 4 consensus-ranked quarterback in this year’s draft, in a trade package that would include both their first-round picks and their 2025 first-rounder.

“They’re going to have to give (picks 11 and 23) and their 2025 first, plus some more draft capital,” Spielman said on the “With the First Pick” podcast on April 3. “I think J.J. will be a good pro, but Minnesota will overpay to get him. At this point, they don’t have a choice (given their current QB room).”

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Vikings Must Weigh J.J. McCarthy’s Value vs. Staying at No. 11

If the Vikings came away with McCarthy after the first day of the draft, they achieved what they set out to do since they opted not to re-sign Cousins.

But from a cost analysis perspective: is the gap between McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. worth two additional first-round picks?

The Vikings realistically could select Penix with their No. 11 pick, reinforce the defensive line with the 23rd pick and keep their options open by retaining their 2025 first-round pick.

This is a scenario the Vikings have continued to propagate into the media. Beyond the touting of the “flexibility” trading for the No. 23 pick offers at the NFL owners’ meetings, the Vikings have met privately with Penix, who seems to be a fit for O’Connell’s scheme.

Whether the Vikings are bluffing that they’re comfortable selecting a quarterback outside the top 10 remains to be seen — but they must be mindful that the Denver Broncos (No. 12) and Las Vegas Raiders (No. 13) are also in the market for a quarterback and have an inside lane to trading ahead of the Vikings at No. 11.

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Bears Trade Proposal Blocks Vikings From Landing QB at No. 11

A best-case scenario for the Vikings would be that the pre-draft McCarthy hype is overblown and they could have their pick of McCarthy or Penix at the No. 11 spot.

However, the Chicago Bears, holding the No. 1 and No. 9 picks, could not only land their quarterback of the future in Caleb Williams but also block the Vikings from having their pick of the available quarterbacks at No. 11.

Bleacher Report’s Jake Tansey proposed a trade that would help the Broncos or Raiders land a quarterback at No. 9, effectively leapfrogging the Vikings.

“The rush to land the fourth-best quarterback in the draft could still be on at No. 9 if the Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders fail to move up. Chicago will not do any business with the Vikings, especially if it helps them land their replacement for Kirk Cousins,” Tansey wrote. “That leaves Denver and Las Vegas as the primary options to trade with if the fourth quarterback, likely J.J. McCarthy, is still on the board at No. 9.”

A potential solution for the Bears sabotaging the Vikings draft is for the Vikings to work out a deal to trade for the No. 8 pick with the Atlanta Falcons, ideally for the No. 11 pick and a potential future third-round compensatory pick.

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