Getty The Giants are one of the most predictable teams in the NFL in this key area.
Predictability is a killer in the NFL, and the New York Giants are beginning to resemble a victim. Despite a 7-4 start that’s confounded expectations, back-to-back defeats to the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys suggest the Giants could be hitting a wall.
The main problem is restricted to a key area where the Giants are becoming dangerously predictable on one side of the ball. An analyst has accused Big Blue of “making it too easy” for opponents to gameplan for a growing weakness.
Giants Too Predictable
To say Giants’ defensive coordinator Don ‘Wink’ Martindale is fond of man coverage is an understatement. He’s calling it more than half the time, according to Haley English of Pro Football Focus, who pointed out how “regardless of their opponent, Giants’ consistent man-coverage rate above 50% is making it too easy for offenses to plan.”
Only the Giants and Los Angeles Chargers “still remained heavy man-coverage users” during Week 12, “a big one for zone coverage, as the league played it nearly 5% more than in Week 11.”
The rigid fidelity to Martindale’s familiar formula cost the Giants during the 28-20 defeat to the Cowboys, who “tore up” man coverage on Thanksgiving Day. English called on Martindale and the Giants “to start tailoring their gameplan to the opponent’s weaknesses.”
That’s sound advice, but it would be just as helpful if Martindale started adjusting his scheme based on his own unit’s weaknesses. Injuries decimated the secondary against the Cowboys, with starting cornerbacks Adoree’ Jackson and Fabian Moreua both out.
Their absences didn’t stop former Baltimore Ravens DC Martindale from blitzing in front of man coverage played by reserves like Rodarius Williams, Nick McCloud and Cordale Flott. The results were predictable and led Hall of Fame tight end Shannon Sharpe to accuse Martindale of “dumb coaching.”
Why would Giants DC play all this man cov with your starting 2 DBs out? That’s dumb coaching
Sharpe’s not the only who has questioned Martindale’s tactics.
Questions Increasing About Tired Scheme
Isolating inexperienced defensive backs against pass-catchers as talented as Cowboys’ trio CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz put the Giants at a distinct disadvantage.
Lamb in particular feasted on recurring coverage looks and a matchup against Darnay Holmes in the slot. The Giants’ fourth-round pick in the 2020 draft did not fare well. Nor did Martindale’s preoccupation with sending the blitz.
The Cowboys knew Lamb was the perfect answer to Giants’ blitzing, per Next Gen Stats:
CeeDee Lamb continued his success against the blitz in Week 12, catching 5 of 8 targets for 81 yards.
Lamb has been the Cowboys’ go-to player on “hot routes” this season, earning a target on a league-high 41% of his routes against the blitz.
Martindale’s unwillingness to break from the blitz was doubly frustrating. Aside from knowing how often Lamb beats pressure, the Giants also didn’t get home with their extra rushers, failing to notch “a sack for the second straight game and the fourth time this season. Their 20 sacks are the eighth fewest in the league,” according to Dan Duggan of The Athletic.
Soft pressure and over-used coverage add up to bad things for pro defenses. So it proved for the Giants, who let the Cowboys feast on third downs and in the red zone, per Duggan:
Red-zone D and third-down D had been key pieces of the Giants’ success. Cowboys converted 7-of-11 third downs and all four of their red zone trips today.
Wink not throwing some change-ups on third down with a depleted secondary was questionable today.
He also noted “the Lions were 4-for-5 in the red zone in their 31-18 win over the Giants” in Week 11. Significantly, Duggan revealed how Martindale’s time with the Ravens was ultimately doomed by “clashes with head coach John Harbaugh over a refusal to make schematic adjustments when injuries hit the secondary.”
The Ravens missed the playoffs last season after collapsing down the stretch, largely because a secondary without injured corners Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey allowed a league-high 4,742 yards through the air.
Martindale’s history is repeating itself, particularly in clutch situations. The most damning is on third-and-long, when Next Gen Stats detailed the Giants play 2-Man coverage “at the 3rd-highest rate” in the league.
Blitz, blitz and blitz again. Keep on lining up in man coverage. Rinse and repeat. The Giants need Martindale to riff with the formula or risk fatally undermining the team’s playoff hopes.
He helped the Giants surprise people earlier this season with a creative mix of coverage and disguise, so Martindale shouldn’t be short of a few new ideas for the run-in.