Getty New York Jets defensive lineman Bryce Huff trying to make a play during an NFL game.
A New York Jets star pass rusher is poised to receive a massive payday from someone in 2024.
Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus released his contract projections for the top 100 free agents for this upcoming offseason. Defensive lineman Bryce Huff is predicted to land a three-year deal for $40 million.
That deal projects to average $13.33 million per season, including over $28 million in total guarantees.
Complicated Huff Decision Awaits the Jets This Offseason
Huff, 25, is scheduled to hit the open market for the first time during his professional career. That new projected contract would give the former Memphis product a well-deserved pay raise.
Huff is playing on the one-year restricted free-agent tender for $4.3 million this year. Even the $13.33 million average he is projected to receive would make him the No. 17 highest-paid pass rusher in football, per Over The Cap.
Although Spielberger mentioned in his piece that this will be a “nuanced negotiation” between Huff and the Jets.
On one hand, he is young, has a lot of potential, is adored by the analytical crowd, but he lacks the raw production that is normally a prerequisite to getting paid.
“Still, there’s a reason the team that developed the former undrafted free agent and sees him every day doesn’t like to deploy him against the run and hasn’t made much of an effort on an extension,” Spielberger explained.
Although this season Huff is finally getting on the field. He has appeared in 399 snaps [most of his career] and is playing 42% of the defensive reps.
Evaluating Huff Contract Projections, Jets Decision
If that is what Huff will command contract-wise, that is super reasonable.
Those projections would pay Huff even less than Carl Lawson got back in 2021 from the Jets. During that offseason, the former Auburn product signed a three-year deal for $45 million and that included $30 million in guarantees.
Interestingly Lawson is a similar evaluation to Huff.
Huff is listed at 6-foot-3, 255 pounds. Lawson is listed at 6-foot-2, 265 pounds. Neither player has ever had a double-digit sack season in their careers, but they both have done well in the advanced pressure analytics.
The Jets weren’t afraid to cough up money for Lawson despite the lack of some of those gaudy numbers. Perhaps that could be the case again with Huff.
However, everyone gets overpaid in free agency. Especially when you consider the pass rusher position and Huff’s age (25 he will turn 26 ahead of the 2024 season).
Even though Huff isn’t a perfect player, there is a strong chance a bidding war could ensue for his services on the open market when multiple teams get involved.
The only way the Jets could prevent that possibility is by dipping into the franchise tag. According to Over The Cap projections, a defensive end is projected to receive $23.34 million on the tag in 2024.
That would be a hefty price to pay, but without the tags, the Jets have no other means at their disposal to prevent Huff from reaching unrestricted free agency.
The Jets have another player waiting in the wings in former first-rounder Will McDonald. If Huff leaves, the team already has a man ready to step into that role. However, with how often the Jets like to rotate defensive linemen, there seems to be plenty of room for multiple guys if the team decides to fit it in the budget.