Getty Jalen Hurts projects to see his stats improve this year, based on Vegas totals.
The most important theme throughout Philadelphia Eagles training camp was the trajectory of quarterback Jalen Hurts and how his play would go a long way toward dictating how good the Eagles are this season. The opinions of analysts and talking heads about just how good he’ll be varied, but one group of experts expects him to trend upward: Vegas bookmakers.
Their odds say Hurts will have a better season than last year, as will new receiver A.J. Brown. However, the sports books project wide receiver DeVonta Smith, tight end Dallas Goedert and cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry to take a step back statistically in 2022.
Here’s a look at some of the projections based on player prop lines at the BetMGM Sportsbook.
QB: Jalen Hurts Trends Up in Passing, Down in Rushing
Last season, Hurts threw for 3,144 yards, 16 touchdowns and 9 interceptions while rushing for 784 yards and 10 scores. This season, the bookmakers are setting a higher over/under for Hurts through the air. Their numbers are 3,599.5 yards, 22.5 touchdowns, and 10.5 interceptions.
They expect Hurts to rush for 699.5 yards and 8.5 touchdowns. That’s a slight pullback from last season, but overall they have Hurts accounting for about 4,300 yards of offense and 31 touchdowns, versus 3,928 yards and 26 scores last year.
It makes sense to expect more through the air and less on the ground, as the Eagles have acquired additional passing targets for Hurts, 24. He already has passed one key test as a franchise quarterback.
RB: Miles Sanders Expected to Surpass Last Year’s Stats
Last year running back Miles Sanders picked up 754 yards on 137 attempts but failed to find the end zone. The previous year he racked up 867 yards and 6 scores, and BetMGM expects him to regain his 2020 form. They set the total at 849.5 yards and 4.5 touchdowns.
Sanders has averaged 5.3 and 5.5 yards per carry, respectively, the last two years, and at 25 years old there’s no reason to expect a drop-off. But he’s managed to stay on the field for more than 12 games only once, and that was during his rookie year in 2019.
The question here seems to be more about whether Sanders can stay healthy. If he plays a full season, he should easily top the yardage number. Touchdowns for running backs involve a bit more luck in terms of how many goal-to-go situations arise for them.
WR: A.J. Brown Expected to Revert to 2020 Form
In 2021, Brown appeared in 13 games with 63 receptions for 869 yards and five touchdowns. In 2020, he appeared in 14 games and went for 70 catches, 1,075 yards and 11 scores. The totals indicate that Brown is expected to put up similar numbers, at least in terms of catches and yards.
They’ve set his over/under at 70.5 receptions for 1,024.5 yards, with 6.5 touchdowns.
WR: DeVonta Smith Projected to Regress Statistically
Oddsmakers project lower numbers for Smith, but that’s because he could be targeted fewer times now that Brown is in the fold. Vegas expects Smith to fail to improve upon his rookie season, when he had 64 catches for 916 yards and five touchdowns.
They’ve set his totals at 63.5 receptions, 874.5 yards and 5.5 touchdowns. Smith could draw more favorable matchups this year with Brown often likely to draw the attention of opponents’ top cornerbacks, but Brown’s presence also means Smith won’t be the top wide receiver any more and may not get the 104 targets he received last season.
TE: Dallas Goedert Predicted to See Yardage Decline
A lot of people expect a breakout year for Goedert, a 27-year-old tight end, but Vegas doesn’t share the same sentiment. Coming off a 56-catch, 830-yard four-touchdown season, BetMGM has set his over/under at 60.5 receptions, 649.5 yards and 4.5 touchdowns.
This likely has a lot to do with Brown’s addition, as well. Goedert was targeted 76 times last year, and that could go down. That said, Hurts is likely to attempt more than the 432 passes he tossed last season, so there could be more to go around than expected.
CB: Darius Slay Projected Below His Career Average as Starter
Slay, a 31-year-old cornerback, nabbed three interceptions last season and has averaged 3.4 per year over the last five seasons. and 2.9 a year since becoming a starter. But BetMGM set his number in 2022 at 2.5, indicating a slight decline from last year and a significant decline from his last five years.
That said, Slay’s eight interceptions in 2017 could reasonably be viewed as an outlier, and if you toss those, 2.5 seems about in line with his performance. However, a revamped pass rushing unit and an upgraded secondary could see more opposing quarterbacks under pressure and without easy targets. That could mean more passes thrown at Slay, and more opportunities for interceptions.
CB: James Bradberry Projected Below His Last 3 Years
Bradberry, the former Carolina Panthers and New York Giants cornerback, picked off three passes each in 2019 and 2020, and four last season. But BetMGM set his number at just 2.5 this year.
This Eagles defense seems poised for a strong year, and their pass rush and secondary both saw significant investments through free agency, the draft and trades. Bradberry, 29, should get plenty of opportunities to turn opposing quarterbacks over, so this one is a bit of a head-scratcher.
Eagles Now Favored to Win Division
On September 6, the Eagles and Dallas Cowboys were neck-and-neck in the betting odds for the division title. Now the Eagles are slight favorites, with FanDuel moving them to +130 and dropping the Cowboys to +155, as of noon Eastern time on September 7. That implies around a 42% chance for the Eagles and a 39% chance for the Cowboys. Slight favorites, but favorites indeed.
Here’s a look at what the Vegas win totals say about the Eagles game-by-game schedule.