UFC 120 Preview and Predictions
Get ready for one hell of a run of UFC events over the next twelve weeks. The biggest brand in the business is ready to unravel seven events in the next three months, culminating with UFC 125 on New Year’s Day.
First up in the formidable schedule is the UFC’s return to the O2 Arena in London, featuring eight British fighters over eleven fights. Some are emerging young talents who are looking to establish themselves in the UFC moving forward, while others are household names aiming to climb back up the ladder into title contention.
Then there is the Brit competing in the opening bout of the evening.
The UFC doesn’t employ many fighters with sub .500 records. Off hand, I can’t think of any other than the TUF 10 veteran, and even he will tell you that a win here is the only way he will remain on the roster.
McSweeney makes the move to the light heavyweight division after going 1-1 as a heavyweight. While he objected to some of the shots Travis Browne delivered while earning a stoppage victory in his last bout, the Greg Jackson trainee just hasn’t looked good in the cage. He was undersized as a heavyweight, so perhaps the drop to 205 will bring a little more success, but McSweeney is behind the eight ball heading to this bout.
Maldonao may not be someone you’ve heard of before, but his pedigree should give you some indication of what McSweeney is up against in this one. A member of Team Nogueira, the 30-year-old boasts an impressive 22-0 record as a professional boxer in addition to his 17 wins in 20 MMA encounters.
His last loss came to Alexandre “Cacareco” Ferreira, a fighter you’ll hear from in the UFC shortly, back in 2007. Since then, Maldonado has reeled off ten consecutive wins. To put it another way, the UFC newcomer has earned more consecutive victories than McSweeney has pro fights.
Spencer Fisher (23-6-0) vs. Curt Warburton (6-1-0)
The first of the UK newcomers to debut on this event, Warburton is a Wolfslair trainee who has split three fights with TUF 9 lightweight winner Ross Pearson.
From all appearances, Warburton looks like your typical scrappy Brit, with the majority of his win coming by way of TKO. This is normally the point where I would lament the fact that his wrestling could be the undoing of him, but (1) I have no idea what Warburton’s wrestling is like, and (2) he’s fighting Spencer Fisher.
I know that Spencer Fisher has solid jiu jitsu and could conceivably bring this fight to the ground and show us whether or not Warburton has any wrestling chops to speak of, but that just isn’t what Spencer Fisher does. No, he stands and swings and we love him for it.
“The King” is riding a two-fight losing streak, and despite signing a new four-fight deal earlier in the year, wins are the only way to ensure you remain employed, and that isn’t even always the case. Being the guy that welcomes the new British fighter to the company in his backyard should tell Fisher how much is riding on this bout.
Paul Sass (10-0-0) vs. Mark Holst (8-2-0)
A training partner of UFC lightweight Terry Etim, Sass brings his unbeaten record and penchant for submissions to the Octagon against Canadian Mark Holst. Unfortunately for my fellow countryman, this is his “thanks for helping us out, have a second fight” bout, having filled in against John Gunderson on short notice in his debut.
Unless you’re a native of the United Kingdom, or freakishly tuned into the UK fight scene, chances are you haven’t heard of any of the fighters Sass has beaten on his way to ten-straight wins. What you do need to know is that he has a slick ground game, with nine of this ten wins coming by submission, seven via triangle choke.
Holst has reasonable ground skills as well, holding a purple belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu, and has beaten some reasonable competition on the Canadian scene, but he looks like a lamb to the slaughter here.
You have to think that the UFC would love to cultivate another British talent to trumpet, wouldn’t you?
Steve Cantwell (7-3-0) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (11-0-0)
Welcome back, Steve Cantwell.
The former WEC light heavyweight champion makes his first UFC appearance since dropping the rubber match of his trilogy with Brian Stann in September 2009. A mysterious illness / injury left him on the sidelines for a long time, and while we’re in the business of projecting and predicting fights, let’s first just say it’s nice to see Cantwell back in the cage and back to good health.
That said how do you welcome a guy back from injury with a bout against an unbeaten talent who holds wins over experienced veterans like Kevin Randleman and Travis Wiuff? I know neither of those men are top-shelf talents any longer (if Wiuff ever was), but Nedkov has been pretty impressive in romping to eleven consecutive wins.
The Bulgarian was supposed to debut against Rodney Wallace a couple months back at UFC 117, but a late injury gave Phil Davis that layup instead. While Cantwell is a reasonable test for a debuting fighter, this looks like a very winnable fight for an intriguing prospect on the rise.
Rob Broughton (14-5-1) vs. Vinicius Queiroz (5-1-0)
There isn’t a lot to talk about here.
Broughton is another Wolfslair product who has earned four-straight victories and holds wins over James Thompson, Robert Berry, Neil Grove and “Butterbean.” Yes, I just wanted to mention a fighter competing on a UFC card who holds a win over Eric Esch.
A Chute Boxe student who holds a brown belt in jiu jitsu under Fabricio Werdum, Queiroz is the first fighter from the famous Brazilian school to compete in the UFC since his jiu jitsu coach was knocked into oblivion by Junior dos Santos.
Cyrille Diabate (16-6-1) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (9-1-0)
This is actually a really interesting fight to me.
Diabate debuted with an impressive knockout of Luis Cane at UFC 114 after getting dropped in the opening seconds of the bout. A coach on Dan Henderson’s TUF 9 team, Diabate is a talented striker who knows how to use his length to his advantage.
His Swedish counterpart also debuted with a splash, knocking out Jared Hamman at UFC 105 before getting choked out by Phil Davis in April. Gustafsson has big power in his hands, and only gives up one-inch to the six-foot-six-inch Frenchman.
Another win for Diabate would certainly move him up the ladder and make him an interesting addition to the highly-competitive upper ranks of the light heavyweight division. Gustafsson would need another win or two to make the jump as well, but the Swede is a young talent who is dangerous for any 205-pound competitor to stand with.
I actually had high hopes for Wilks coming off of his win over DaMarques Johnson on Season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter. Not that I thought he would emerge as a future champion, but he looked to have a solid all-around game that could propel him beyond being a British fighter on British cards.
So far, I think I’m wrong.
Wilks has been unimpressive since beating Johnson, losing to Matt Brown in his post-TUF debut before earning a unanimous decision win over Peter Sobotta at UFC 115 in a bout that was far from memorable. The California-based welterweight doesn’t fight with any real sense of urgency, and when your skills aren’t worlds beyond your opponent’s, that is a recipe for disaster.
Unlike Wilks, Patrick did impress in Vancouver, winning his organizational debut over Ricardo Funch by second round submission, a guillotine choke that should have earned the Mississauga native a Fight Night bonus if not for Mirko Cro Cop’s lobbying for the prize.
Anyway, the 12-1 talent has not lost a contest since dropping a decision to former UFC middleweight mainstay Drew McFedries in June 2002. If that’s not enough to convince you of his talents, Patrick also survived being put into a medically-induced coma for two days after getting tazered following an event in Gatineau, Quebec in July 2009.
Somehow, I don’t think anything he’ll encounter in the cage could be quite as bad as getting tazed.
Cheick Kongo (15-6-1) vs. Travis Browne (10-0-0)
He’s been fighting for the UFC long enough that we don’t need to go into great detail about Cheick Kongo. After twelve fights with the organization, there are no secrets to the Wolfslair products approach in the cage.
The muscular man who will offer up 47,000 “heart-tap salutes” to the crowd on his way to the cage is a powerful striker with an allergy to the ground, though he did deliver a couple takedowns of his own against Paul Buentello. Still, it’s not like Kongo is going to come out and pull guard or shoot for a single-leg; he’s swinging and Browne doesn’t want to be on the end of one.
Unbeaten through ten professional bouts, Browne was impressive in his UFC debut, bludgeoning James McSweeney out of the heavyweight division. The Hawaiian trains with the Alliance MMA team that includes Joey Beltran, Brandon Vera and WEC champ Dominick Cruz, and brings a purple belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu to go along with the heavy hands we’ve already seen him display.
Chances are we’ll see a little more of his ground game this time around, and a win over Kongo could put him in line for some more interesting and challenging matchups in the new year.
John Hathaway (14-0-0) vs. Mike Pyle (19-7-1)
Hathaway’s victory over Diego Sanchez at UFC 114 was a coming out party for the emerging British welterweight. Now, “The Hitman” has to prove he can keep doing it by beating a tougher-than –you-think talent in Mike “Quicksand” Pyle.
On the surface, this looks like a step back for the unbeaten Briton; following up his domination of the well-known and favored former TUF winner with a bout against Pyle, but the veteran member of the Xtreme Couture team is a stiff test, especially if taken lightly.
Pyle has alternated wins and losses since joining the UFC, and enters off his most impressive performance to date, a third round submission of Jesse Lennox in the debut bout at UFC 115 in Vancouver. A slick jiu jitsu specialist, Pyle is the kind of guy who can give you fits on the ground if you’re not prepared.
Fortunately for John Hathaway, he’s a little different than most British MMA fighters, in that he actually has some wrestling in his toolbox. While not an elite-level wrestler by any stretch, Hathaway more than held his own with highly-regarded welterweight wrestler Rick Story at UFC 99 in Cologne, Germany last year and stuffed Sanchez’s takedown attempts back in April.
A win for the young Brit puts him into the lower-end mix of things at 170; he’s not quite ready for the cream of the crop, but his days of fighting journeyman and up-and-comers will be over.
For Pyle, this is a chance to make good on all the “he’s the best guy in the gym in training” talk you hear from Xtreme Couture in advance of his bouts. He needs to perform at his best in the Octagon and on a consistent basis.
Dan Hardy (23-7-0) vs. Carlos Condit (25-5-0)
This fight is going to tell us a lot about both fighters and maybe even give us a little insight on how things could shape up in the welterweight division moving forward.
This will be Hardy’s first appearance since having his ass handed to him by Georges St-Pierre back in March, and the cocky Brit won’t want to let his countryman down. He has repeatedly gotten the better of opponents who have wanted to stand with him, and while the one-punch knockout power may not be there, he’ll certainly batter you into oblivion if you give him the chance.
There was a time when Carlos Condit was considered the future king of the 170-pound division, back when he was tearing apart welterweights in the WEC. Since being merged into the UFC, “The Natural Born Killer” has had three entertaining, but uneven performances, coming away with a 2-1 record in the process.
While he has a decent ground game, thanks to his long, wiry frame, Condit likes to stand-and-trade, a practice that has gotten him in trouble in each of his three UFC bouts. Last time out, Condit started exceptionally slow against Rory MacDonald and was down on every scorecard in the building before pouring it on in the third round and securing a stoppage. That won’t work against Hardy.
Looking ahead to 2011, the winner of this contest has to be considered on a short list of contenders for the welterweight title. At the very least, whoever emerges victorious will have a number of quality bouts available to him once things across the division play out. Expect names like Fitch, Koscheck, Kampmann and Shields to be mentioned alongside these two in 2011.
Every so often, you’ve gotta just sit back and enjoy a fight like this. There is nothing at stake, neither guy is angling for a title shot (or should be considered for one), and you have a seriously polarizing figure like Michael Bisping to either cheer for or cheer against. This is the definition of a “Fun Fight.”
Bisping is coming off a steady three-round win over Dan Miller at UFC 114 where he was able to show off his technical boxing and continually-improving grappling skills. One of few fighter that you either love or hate, Bisping believes he is a middleweight contender and could convince a few people of the same with an impressive win over Akiyama here.
The extremely popular Akiyama enters off his entertaining performance with Chris Leben on the UFC 116 undercard. While the bout was one of the best of the year, Akiyama has yet to deliver an overly-impressive performance since joining the UFC as a high-profile acquisition last summer. Both of his bouts have been middle-of-the-road affairs which featured flashes of brilliance, but nothing sustained.
I viewed his last fight with Leben as a chance for Akiyama to prove his worth and renew that notion now. It may not be a must-win situation, but it certainly is a “put on a good show” scenario facing “Sexyama” in England.
In case you missed it, check out the rest of the team’s thoughts on UFC 120 with the debut of the Heavy MMA Podcast.
