UFC 125: Punch Drunk Preview

Check out our complete breakdown of all the UFC 125 fights

With Christmas (and Boxing Day shopping) over with and the extended family members back sleeping in their own beds, the time is right to tackle the breakdown of the UFC’s first event of 2011, UFC 125: Resolution.

A couple of compelling match-ups that were each slated in the co-main event slot at one point or another were scuttled by injuries, but the event is still high on entertaining pairings and features a main event with all the intrigue you need to start a new year of fistic fireworks off with a bang.

Jacob Volkmann (11-2-0) vs. Antonio McKee (25-3-2)

Having a guy whose nickname is “Christmas” kick off this card just seems right, as Volkmann makes his third appearance in the lightweight division, and welcomes newcomer Antonio McKee to the UFC.

After losing a pair of tough contests to start his UFC career, Volkmann dropped to the 155-pound ranks and has had reasonable success, earning a pair of decision wins in his two fights. The move to the deepest division in the organization also gave the Minnesota Martial Arts product an opportunity to compete against less daunting competition than he faced as a welterweight; Ronnys Torres and Paul Kelly are both tough, but pale in comparison to Paulo Thiago and Martin Kampmann.

McKee will tell you that he can beat all of those guys, and Volkmann, and B.J. Penn, Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, probably all in the same night. To his credit, the 41-year-old former MFC lightweight champion is riding a 15-fight unbeaten streak into his debut. That being said, the best competition he’s faced in that stretch is a toss-up between Marcus Aurelio, Delson Heleno and Carlo Prater…

The veteran is a tremendous wrestler who has used his suffocating top game to control his opposition in the process of amassing his impressive unbeaten streak. While he lived up to his word and finished Luiciano Azevedo in his last outing, McKee has made no promises to retire heading into this one, so expect his wrestling game to be on full display.

Daniel Roberts (11-1-0) vs. Greg Soto (8-1-0)

This one could be a lot more interesting than people think.

Roberts was welcomed to the UFC by a big left hand from John Howard that knocked him out cold back in March, but since then, “Ninja” has not only put together back-to-back wins, he’s shown the grappling skills that have earned him numerous regional and national accolades along the way. In his last outing, Roberts made short work of Mike Guymon, catching “The Joker” in a quick anaconda choke and earning Submission of the Night honors for under a minute of work.

A student of Kurt Pellegrino, Soto has also bounced back from a rough start to his UFC career. Filling in on short notice against Matthew Riddle at UFC 111, the New Jersey native was dominated in the opening two rounds before an illegal upkick earned him a disqualification in the third. The BJJ brown belt bounced back with a win over TUF 9 veteran Nick Osipczak at UFC 118, and looks to keep building on that success here.

Soto has a strong grappling game of his own, which means this one could go one of two ways; either we get a solid mat-based struggle between two grapplers looking for dominant position and possible submissions, or their grappling cancels each other out and they fling haymakers until one man falls or the fifteen minutes elapses. Both sound good to me.

Mike Brown (24-6-0) vs. Diego Nunes (15-1-0)

I want to start a “Remember Mike Brown” campaign, as the former featherweight champion has became the forgotten man in the WEC and remains relegated to preliminary card action now that he’s back in the UFC.

It wasn’t all that long ago that the American Top Team product was the top 145-pound fighter in the world, but two high-profile, one-sided loses in three fights sent Brown tumbling down the divisional ladder. He started his climb back up the rankings with a first-round win over Cole Province at WEC 51 and looks to continue his return to contender status against Nunes here.

A member of Team Nogueira, Nunes is a decision machine with what my wife likes to call “Little Boy hair,” a heavy part on one side swept across the forehead. His record is very impressive and he’s beaten some quality opposition in the process of amassing his 15 wins, but for all his success, Nunes hasn’t been able to get beyond mid-card status.

The reason he has stayed planted on the preliminary portion of the card is that there is nothing overwhelming about Nunes’ approach in the cage; he doesn’t have great grappling or big power, just solid skills in both areas and the cardio to grind on you for 15 minutes if necessary. Truthfully, with the brighter spotlights and bigger paydays in the UFC, something tells me that a loss might make Nunes expendable.

Phil Baroni (13-12-0) vs. Brad Tavares (6-0-0)

Speaking of guys who should be considered expendable…

“The New York Bad Ass” returns in hopes of keeping his record from reaching the .500 mark for his career. Baroni is a great quote and entertaining guy before the cage door closes, but being a professional fighter is about what you do once you’re in the cage, and lately, Baroni just hasn’t performed. He’s moving back up to middleweight after a five-fight stint at welterweight, a move that will hopefully help his conditioning, as Baroni looked like a punching bag with legs last time out against Amir Sadollah.

If his cardio isn’t up to snuff, “The Best Evah” could once again be pulling the punching bag routine, as Tavares is an emerging talent. Fighting of the theTapouT Training Cente, Tavares is coached by Shawn Tompkins, and my fellow Canadian is pretty high on his charge. The young Hawaiian showed flashes of potential during his time on Season 11 of The Ultimate Fighter, advancing to the semifinals before losing to eventual winner Court McGee.

Tavares won his UFC debut at the TUF 11 Finale, earning an unquestioned win over Seth Baczynski in a rematch of their quarterfinal contest that ended in controversy during the season. The 23-year-old has shown good hands thus far in this career and will get the chance to put them on display again opposite Baroni.

Josh Grispi (14-1-0) vs. Dustin Poirier (8-1-0)

Honestly, you couldn’t blame Grispi if he’s a little ornery heading into this bout. Before Jose Aldo was forced to withdraw due to a neck / back injury, Grispi was all set to make his UFC debut in the co-main event slot, competing for the featherweight championship. Now he’s been relegated to the preliminary card, and a loss could cost him his shot at the gold.

Grispi has been on the featherweight radar for a while, but a couple of extended layoffs due to injuries slowed his progress. He’s beaten some of the best the featherweight division has to offer – Mark Hominick, L.C. Davis – and hasn’t lost in ten fights, yet he remains an underrated prospect and contender. Now that the featherweights are fighting under the UFC banner, that should change, and Grispi’s penchant for quick and impressive finishes should make him a household name in no time.

That is if he’s able to get by Poirier first.

After suffering his first professional setback in his WEC debut – a unanimous decision loss to Danny Castillo at WEC 50 – Poirier bounced back in November with a first-round knockout win over Zach Micklewright; the Louisiana native needed less than a minute to earn the victory.

While stepping in for a fallen champion could be considered big shoes to fill, the flipside is that Poirier enters the Octagon free of expectations or pressure. Grispi is the one who stands to lose a title shot if he comes up short, while Poirier gets the biggest fight of his career and a chance to insert himself into the title picture with a win.

Marcus Davis (17-7-0) vs. Jeremy Stephens (18-6-0)

I have really enjoyed watching Davis compete over the years, but at age 37 and sporting a 1-3 record over his last four fights, this move to lightweight smells a bad decision for a desperate veteran who can’t bring himself to walk away.

I would understand if Davis had been getting dominated by much bigger opposition as a welterweight, but that isn’t the case; save for the Ben Saunders bout, Davis lost to both Nate Diaz and Dan Hardy because they were younger, faster opponents and all-in-all better fighters. Shedding an additional 15 pounds doesn’t change the fact that “The Irish Hand Grenade” isn’t as dangerous or durable as he once was.

It is fitting that Davis is making his lightweight debut against Stephens, as I see a lot of the veteran in his younger opponent. Stephens likes to stand-and-bang, with extra emphasis on the bang; outside of Kamal Shalorus, I can’t think of anyone who throws more power shots than Stephens.

After a frustrating loss to Melvin Guilllard where he didn’t get to expend much of his punching power, Stephens asked to be the one to welcome Davis to his new division, knowing his elder would engage from the opening bell.

I just hope I’m completely wrong about Davis and his decision to drop down because if Diaz can leave him looking like someone repeatedly smashed him in the face with a steel chair, Stephens could do the same, if not worse.

Clay Guida (27-11-0) vs. Takanori Gomi (32-6-0)

This is actually a perfect pairing to have as the initial pay-per-view offering of 2011 for a number of reasons.

For starters, Guida has never been in a boring fight in his life, and his between rounds belching is always a good time.

Additionally, the freakishly energetic RV enthusiast is the perfect opponent to push Gomi to his limits and help us determine whether “The Fireball Kid” is going to spend the next year chasing down the lightweight championship or trying to tread water amongst the sharks in the division.

In his two UFC appearances, we’ve seen two different versions of Gomi. The first was overmatched against the improved wrestling of Kenny Florian, beaten for two rounds before being choked out by the MMA Live analyst. Four months later, Gomi showed the quick and powerful hands that made him a threat in Japan, catching Tyson Griffin on the chin, sending him chasing face-down to the canvas in just 64 seconds.

There is only so much room in the middle of the lightweight division, especially with the influx of talent coming from the WEC, so both Guida and Gomi need to start the year with an impressive performance if they hope to rise above the masses in 2011.

Nate Diaz (13-5-0) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (13-0-1, 1 NC)

Why does this feel like the welterweight version of Diaz’s fight with Clay Guida?

After impressing during Season 5 of The Ultimate Fighter and putting together a couple of quality wins in the lightweight division, the kid from Stockton stepped up in competition and fell flat. Three losses in four fights followed, all of which came to tough grapplers who smothered Diaz.

Now that he’s had a couple of quality appearances in the welterweight division, fights that were tailor-made to showcase everything good in the Diaz arsenal, he’s matched up with someone who isn’t going to stand-and-trade, someone who has the ability to grind him into a loss.

Kim has flown under the radar in the welterweight division thanks to only a couple of marketable fights (Karo Parisyan and Amir Sadollah) and injuries holding up his return to the cage. While he may not be a household name, the South Korean “Stun Gun” is a talent to be watched in the welterweight division this coming year.

A black belt judoka, Kim has the size and strength to control Diaz in the clinch and against the cage, a strategy he used successfully against Sadollah. While far from flashy, Kim is extremely effective at implementing his style and controlling the action. He’s difficult to take down and will have an advantage in the measurable points with Diaz.

While they’re of similar size and stature, and both will weigh-in somewhere around the 170-pound limit, Kim will be the bigger of the two in every way on Saturday night, and that could be the ultimate difference maker.

Brandon Vera (11-5-0) vs. Thiago Silva (14-2-0)

Though I know it won’t be the case, there is a part of me that wants to see the loser of this fight handed a pink slip on Monday morning. Not that I have any kind of personal vendetta or hatred for either man, but they’re simply middle-of-the-pack talents who have been forced upon us one-too-many times for my liking and I don’t want to have to endure another round of it leading up to their next fight.

This time two years ago, Silva stood across the cage from Lyoto Machida, both men sporting unblemished records, and only one poised to advance into championship contention. Machida dropped Silva at the close of the opening round, and you know what happened from there.

Last year was a scuttled year for Silva, as he fought just once thanks to a lingering back injury that almost caused him to miss that lone bout in the first place. He lost to Rashad Evans at UFC 108 and spent the remainder of the year dealing with his back troubles, and now he’s more than a year removed from his last win and looking down the barrel of a two-fight losing streak.

The situation is even worse for Vera, the once-hyped star who failed to live up to the advanced billing offered by both the organization and the fighter himself. Having once boasted that he would wear the light heavyweight and heavyweight belts at the same time, Vera has come up well short of those standards. Last time out, Jon Jones literally smashed his face in, leaving “The Truth” with multiple facial fractures that required surgery and a lengthy time on the sidelines to recover.

Both have shown flashes of talent and potential, but it is hard to get behind either fighter when we’ve seen them propped up on promotional material only to come up short on a number of occasions. Neither is a world-beater or going to ascend much higher than their current standing in the division; as such, wouldn’t it just be easier to have one good-but-not-great light heavyweight amongst the rank-and-file?

photo by James Law/Heavy.com

Chris Leben (25-6-0) vs. Brian Stann (9-3-0)

The 2010 Comeback Fighter of the Year (at least on my ballot) gets a chance to keep the hot-streak rolling on the opening day of 2011.

After underwhelming in his back-from-suspension fight against Jake Rosholt, Leben rattled off three-straight wins in 2010, including his impressive two wins in two weeks performance in the summer. Just when you thought “The Crippler” was completely embracing his disappointing, underachieving role in the division, he goes out and looks terrific against both Aaron Simpson and Yoshihiro Akiyama in the span of 14 days.

Stann looked solid in his middleweight debut, catching Mike Massenzio in a triangle during the third round of their August encounter. As former WEC light heavyweight champion and decorated Marine, Stann is an easily marketed fighter who has shown improving all-around skills since he began training in Albuquerque with Greg Jackson and his team of coaches.

While Leben has viewed this bout as a step back after his impressive summer, Stann has the opportunity to throw his name into the discussion near the top of the division with a win, and the stylistic match-up isn’t all that bad. Both men prefer throwing hands and have solid-but-unspectacular ground games in reserve, which means we should end up with an old fashioned donnybrook on our hands.

Frankie Edgar (13-1-0) vs. Gray Maynard (10-0-0, 1 NC)

It would be very easy to look at the first meeting between these two, a meeting that Maynard dominated, and expect the same outcome in the sequel. But if Hollywood has taught us anything about sequels, it’s that while the characters remain the same and the plots may be similar, there are always a few twists and turns along the way that differentiate the follow-up from the first installment.

There is no denying that Maynard is a tremendous wrestler who has used his dominant top game to work his way into a title shot. Regardless of how little you like watching him fight, the former Michigan State Spartan keeps coming out on the right side of the scorecards and good things happen when you keep winning. His boxing has been improving for some time under the guidance of Gil Martinez, and while his size and strength edge was the difference in his initial meeting with Edgar, this time it could be Maynard’s downfall.

Where Maynard has remained roughly the same fighter since he handed Edgar the lone loss of his career, the UFC lightweight champion has evolved into the dynamic fighter who twice defeated the man considered the best lightweight ever.

Since losing to Maynard, Edgar has improved his boxing, both his footwork and striking, to the point that people have forgotten he began his career as a quality wrestler. “The Answer” darts in-and-out better than anyone not named Dominick Cruz, scoring points and avoiding damage at the same time. While he tried to wrestle with Maynard the last time around, expect the champion to employ a stick-and-move strategy similar to the one he utilized against Penn.

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