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UFC 127: Preview & Predictions

Spencer Fisher

Previewing the action from this Saturday’s Australian event

If anyone needs further proof that mixed martial arts and the sports most successful organization, the UFC, are truly a global phenomenon, look no further than this weekend’s event from Sydney, Australia.

After making their first voyage to the other side of the world last February, the UFC returns for their second sold out show at the Acer Arena. While the event reaches the North American audience at the standard viewing times (10 EST/7 PST), that means more than 17,000 rabid MMA fans from Australia are giving up their Sunday morning (and probably taking it easier on Saturday night) in order to fill the venue.

Though that happens in countless other sports as well – most notably in both American and European football – it speaks to the growing connection the sport is making with audiences around the globe.

So too does the diverse fight card on tap in The Land Down Under.

Tiequan Zhang (12-1-0) vs. Jason Reinhardt (20-1-0)

This contest was originally supposed to take place at WEC 51, but Reinhardt was forced from the bout after failing an eye exam. Instead, Zhang fought Pablo Garza in his North American debut, submitting the TUF 12 hopeful in the opening round.

“The Mongolian Wolf” has since lost some of his momentum and his unbeaten record, thanks to Duke Roufus trainee Danny Downes, but remains an intriguing addition to the lightweight ranks and a fighter with great marketability as the UFC continues their expansion into Asia.

It’s really hard to know what to make of Reinhardt and his shiny 20-1 record. While I’ve said time-and-again that compiling such an impressive record is an accomplishment no matter where you’re fighting, you also need to look beyond the wins and losses to see the bigger picture.

Reinhardt’s lone loss came against the one opponent on his resume that fight fans will actually know, UFC lightweight vet Joe Lauzon, while all of his victories have come against unknowns across a collection of regional shows. He also hasn’t been in the cage in over three years, recording his last victory in January 2008.

That layoff doesn’t necessarily make Reinhardt a lame duck opponent, but in my opinion, it certainly shifts the odds in Zhang’s favor.

Anthony Perosh (10-6-0) vs. Tom Blackledge (10-6-0)

You have to give it up to Australian veteran Anthony Perosh.

The 38-year-old filled in for late scratch Ben Rothwell at the UFC’s debut show in his native land last year, stepping in against Mirko Cro Cop and taking a serious beating in the process. He followed up the loss by undergoing knee surgery, and returns to fight again this time around, welcoming Wolfslair product Blackledge to the UFC.

A training partner of UFC stalwarts Quinton Jackson and Cheick Kongo, amongst others, Blackledge coaches alongside Jackson during Season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter. He was signed by the UFC back in early 2010 and was expected to make his debut in October at UFC 120, but pulled out the bout for unknown reasons.

He comes in on a two-fight winning streak, but his last ten fights show an interesting pattern; two wins, two losses, in succession the whole way through, dating back to the fourth of his personal best five-fight winning streak.

While Perosh hasn’t fought since losing to Cro Cop at UFC 120, Blackledge will have some cage rust to shake off as well, having last stepped into the cage in August 2009.

This is the definition of a pick’em fight.

Maciej Jewtuszko (8-0-0) vs. Curt Warburton (6-2-0)

A pair of lightweights who look to be headed in opposite directions meet here as the unbeaten Jewtuszko faces the second of three Wolfslair products on the card.

The undefeated Pole make quite a splash in his Zuffa debut, knocking out knockout artist Anthony Njokuani at WEC 50 last August. He was slated to face Ricardo Lamas at WEC 53, but was forced to withdraw due to a hand injury, and returns here looking to keep his momentum moving forward.

For Warburton, this is a do-or-die outing, having lost his promotional debut at UFC 120 against Spencer Fisher. While he took “The King” to the cards, the depth of the lightweight division demands that the Brit get back in the win column.

Jewtuszko appears to be comfortable wherever the fight takes place; he’s split his eight wins down the middle, half by way of stoppage, the others by submission. Warburton is more keen on keeping the fight standing and working his boxing, so it will be interesting to see if his opponent will indulge or bring the fight to the floor where he has the edge.

Mark Hunt (5-7-0) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (21-3-0)

“The Super Samoan” is on his last legs as a fighter, having dropped six straight over the last four-plus years, including a 63-second defeat at the hands of Sean McCorkle at UFC 119 last September.

The truth of the matter is that the wildly popular New Zealander was still contractually owed fights when the UFC purchased the assets of Pride several years ago, and this bout could serve as a great going away party for Hunt.

This should also be Tuchscherer’s final opportunity to impress inside the Octagon as well, as the former YAMMA Pit Fighting finalist has gone 1-2 in three fights. His lone win was a controversial majority decision over thrice-released Tim Hague, a decision Joe Rogan classified as one of the worst decisions he’s ever seen.

Both guys have shown power in the past, but Tuchscherer has yet to showcase it under the UFC banner and it’s been so long since Hunt was effective in any combat sports competition that you really can’t predict what you’re going to get from him. Fighting front of a partisan crowd should give him a boost, but his UFC 119 performance was so uninspired that there is really no way to be sure.

Nick Ring (10-0-0) vs. Riki Fukuda (17-4-0)

This is a fight I really like and hope to see on the broadcast and features the first of two former HeavyMMA.com guest bloggers in action.

After a breakout performance on Season 11 of The Ultimate Fighter, Ring finally makes his debut in the Octagon after recovering from another operation on his knee. The unbeaten Canadian is a charismatic and amiable addition to the middleweight roster, but hasn’t fought since October 2009 and has never faced anyone as dangerous as Fukuda.

The former DEEP middleweight champion, Fukuda is making his Octagon debut as well, and brings a seven-fight winning streak of his own into the cage. He holds notable wins over DEEP welterweight champ Yuya Shirai and Murilo “Ninja” Rua, as well as loses to Jackson’s product Joey Villasenor and UFC vet Joe Doerksen.

With both making their debuts, the first fight jitters cancel out and this becomes a battle to see who dictates the terms of the fight. Fukuda is a shoot wrestler who will look to get inside, dominate the clinch and keep Ring close, while the Canadian’s aim will be to maintain space and use his kickboxing and Muay Thai.

James Te-Huna (12-4-0) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (10-1-0)

Former Heavy.com guest blogger Te-Huna makes his second appearance in the Octagon, returning to fight in front of the home fans after scoring a victory in the opening bout of the evening last year against Igor Pokrajac.

While he was slated to return to the cage in October, Te-Huna was forced to withdraw from that bout with Tom Blackledge due to injury, meaning he’s been out of action since defeating Pokrajac at UFC 120 last February. The 29-year-old New Zealander has put together a six-fight winning streak since losing to current Bellator middleweight champ Hector Lombard, but faces his toughest test of late this time around.

Swedish prospect Gustafsson has been beaten just once in 11 bouts, that defeat coming to rising light heavyweight prospect Phil Davis at UFC 112. He bounced back from that setback to submit Cyrille Diabate at UFC 120 in October, and has outstanding power to compliment his developing submission game.

While Gustafsson will have a three-inch height advantage, it is Te-Huna who sports the longer reach, and should be the heavier of the two when the cage door closes. Standing with the Swede has proven to be dangerous, so expect to see the crowd favorite try to get inside and utilize his wrestling.

Ross Pearson (11-4-0) vs. Spencer Fisher (24-6-0)

Easily the most compelling matchup on the undercard, this lightweight affair could mean the end of the line for one of these well-liked, highly-skilled competitors.

Fisher comes into this bout following a unanimous decision victory over Curt Warburton at UFC 120 in Germany, a win that staved off a three-fight losing streak. The former Miletich Fighting Systems product is extremely hard to put away and has a vast offensive tool box at his disposal; of his 24 wins, Fisher has 10 knockouts and nine submissions to go along with five decisions.

Despite winning the lightweight competition on Season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter, England’s Pearson could be fighting for a job in this one.

He was dominated in his last outing, tapping to a Cole Miller rear-naked choke at Fight Night 22 in Austin last September. Working in his favor are a pair of impressive wins over Aaron Riley and Dennis Siver, but as with everyone competing at 155-pounds in the UFC, a two-fight losing streak in the incredibly deep division is playing with fire.

With jobs potentially on the line and a pair of well-rounded competitors stepping into the cage, this should turn out to be one of the more entertaining bouts of the evening.

Kyle Noke (18-4-1) vs. Chris Camozzi (14-3-0)

A pair of TUF 11 alums meet in this one, with both bringing four-fight winning streaks to the table.

Camozzi was forced to withdraw after earning a place in the house in a hard-fought battle with Victor O’Donnell, but has since rebounded with wins over James Hammortree at the Finale last June, and a split decision win over newcomer Dong Yi Yang at UFC 121. The 24-year-old Camozzi has solid Muay Thai and a developing jiu jitsu game, but will face his toughest test to date in this one.

A veteran of the sport with wins over fellow UFC 127 fighters George Sotiropoulos and Brian Ebersole, Noke fights on home soil for the first time in nearly three years. Now training with the elite team at Jackson’s in Albuquerque, the former bodyguard of the late “Crocodile Hunter” Steve Irwin has finished each of his two fights since emerging from Season 11 as a potential middleweight to watch.

While neither fighter is at the point of being considered a contender, this is a bout to determine which of these two takes the next step up the ladder, and kicks off the main card with the first of three consecutive bouts featuring hometown favorites.

Chris Lytle (30-17-5) vs. Brian Ebersole (46-19-1, 1 NC)

When these two veterans take the cage on Sunday morning in Sydney, they will bring 112 combined fights with them inside the Octagon. To put that in perspective for you, the remaining 8 fighters on the main card have a combined 179 fights amongst them.

Crazy.

While Lytle undoubtedly feels a little letdown in not facing Carlos Condit as originally planned, the resurgent veteran will undoubtedly bring his A-Game in this one, as he always does. The Indiana firefighter has spoken of his desire to face Georges St. Pierre in the future, and needs to run his current winning streak to five if he has any hopes of that happening.

After sometimes sacrificing victory for the sake of putting on an exciting performance for the crowd, Lytle has found a way to blend the two over his last four bouts; he’s still a highly-entertaining fighter, but the 36-year-old has also started playing to his strengths a little more, and should continue to do so here.

Ebersole gets the chance of a lifetime here, stepping in for the injured Condit on the main card in his UFC debut. An American who has primarily fought in Australia over the last four-plus years, Ebersole has lost just once in his last 12 bouts and is 16-3-1 over his last 20, though he hasn’t defeated a fighter of Lytle’s standing in some time.

George Sotiropoulos (14-2-0) vs. Dennis Siver (17-7-0)

Undefeated in the UFC, Sotiropoulos is one of a handful of lightweights currently waiting for things to shake out at the top of the division. Having earned consecutive victories over Joe Lauzon, Kurt Pellegrino and Joe Stevenson dating back to last year’s Australian debut, the 33-year-old jiu jitsu black belt looks to add a seventh-straight win inside the Octagon to his resume and maintain his place in the upper echelon of the 155-pound division.

While some groaned when this fight was announced, believing Siver to be a step back on the difficulty scale for Sotiropoulos, the German kickboxer has put together back-to-back wins and is 5-1 over his last six appearances in the UFC. Though he hasn’t faced the same level of competition as his Australian opponent, Siver has steadily been improving his jiu jistu as a complimentary weapon to his striking, and showed his development last time out, submitting Andre Winner in the opening round.

This is the quintessential trap fight for Sotiropoulos; a bout in front of a partisan crowd against a fighter many expect him to easily defeat. While it could very well play out that way, Siver could certainly play the spoiler here.

Michael Bisping (20-3-0) vs. Jorge Rivera (19-7-0)

Let’s just get this over with right now: Rivera’s videos antagonizing Bisping have been awesome, and listening to the obviously rattled Bisping respond has increased the interest in this fight tenfold.

Everything Bisping has said leading up to this fight has merit; he has faced better competition than his opponent and does have the better all-around skill set. The knock against the TUF 3 winner, in addition to his lack of knockout power, has been his inability to win the big one as of yet; he shines against solid competition, but is 0-3 in fights with proven commodities Wanderlei Silva, Dan Henderson and Rashad Evans.

While Rivera isn’t on the same level as the three men who have beaten Bisping to this point in his career, he is a cagey veteran with serious knockout power, not to mention having gotten into Bisping’s head.

Rivera may have won the battle leading up to the fight, but he’s got his work cut out for him once the cage door closes. This would be the biggest win of his lengthy career and catapult him higher in the rankings than he’s been before, two things that could certainly weigh heavily on a fighter.

That said, Rivera has endured personal tragedies in his life that are paramount to anything he can experience in the cage, and should come in relaxed and looking to back-up his outstanding string of viral jabs at Bisping in this one.

B.J. Penn (16-7-1) vs. Jon Fitch (23-3-0, 1 NC)

For some people, this fight is the antithesis of anything they want to see in the cage; perennial contender and grinder extraordinaire Fitch against the polarizing and enigmatic Penn.

For others, this is a must-see match-up between not only two of the top welterweights in the sport, but two of the best pound-for-pound competitors in mixed martial arts.

Love him or hate him, Penn is a sublime talent capable of beating just about anyone on any given night. He was fit and focused for his meeting with Matt Hughes at UFC 123 and it showed in the fight; Penn dropped the former welterweight champion in just 21 seconds.

After starting his career 2-2 with a No Contest against Team Dagger alum Solomon Hutcherson, Fitch has gone 21-1 over his last 22 fights.

Let me say that again: Fitch is 21-1 over his last 22 fights, the lone loss coming to welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre.

As with Penn, it’s impossible to deny Fitch’s talents; while you can dislike his wrestling-based style and seven consecutive wins by decision, the American Kickboxing Academy product has beaten a list of quality opponents inside the cage and is unquestionably one of the very best welterweights in the world.

While it probably pained Dana White a little to admit it earlier this month, this bout will produce the next title challenger in the welterweight division, or at least one of them, depending on how the UFC decides to proceed if St. Pierre beats Jake Shields and vacates the belt after UFC 129.

Both fighters have a great deal of respect for each other and want to prove that they’re deserving of another crack at the welterweight crown. All those elements should combine to produce a very entertaining main event.

More Heavy on UFC News

Check out Spencer Kyte's complete preview of tomorrow's UFC 127 event in Sydney.