UFC 131 Preview & Predictions

Analyzing the UFC 131 fight card from top to bottom

I understand completely how some people look at this injury-ravaged event and see a flop waiting to happen. Without Brock Lesnar’s name attached to it, UFC 131 is forced to forge on with Shane Carwin and Junior dos Santos as the main draw and a host of low to middle level stars in tow.

Like I said, I can see why some people are panning this event before the first fighter has even been introduced.

Call me a perpetual optimist or perhaps even a little delusional, but I see an opportunity for those low to middle level stars to shine and a trio of fights with real championship implications.

UFC 131 may not be filled with a who’s who of the UFC elite, but even the last few cards that boasted the best pre-fight cards on paper (UFC 112 for instance) ended up underwhelming. So how come a collection of lesser known athletes can’t end up overachieving?

Michihiro Omigawa (12-9-1) vs. Darren Elkins (12-2)

While Omigawa’s plummet back to preliminary card status isn’t as bad as Scott Jorgensen’s, it’s still a pretty serious fall nonetheless.

Jorgensen lost a title fight to Dominick Cruz before facing Ken Stone on the undercard of last week’s TUF 13 Finale. For Omigawa, a loss to #1 contender Chad Mendes in his UFC return earned him a chance to face Elkins before most of the fans will have entered the arena.

Despite his placement, Omigawa is still a quality featherweight. Losing to Mendes isn’t all that bad, you know, since he’s beaten everyone he’s faced to date. The Japanese judoka was able to deal with the Team Alpha Male member’s combination of power and wrestling, but those things won’t be as big a problem here.

His 0-3 record in the UFC scares me a little, especially since no one from Japan has come over and been overly impressive since the fall of Pride, but you’ve got to give a guy who spent the better part of the last two years in the top 10 the benefit of the doubt.

Elkins doesn’t have that same cache, unfortunately, and needs this win to remain on the roster. He “won” his debut when Duane Ludwig shattered his ankle, and lasted just 41 seconds against Charles Oliveira in his follow up.

Perhaps the move to featherweight is a better fit. He’ll certainly be the bigger of the two and can look to Mendes’ success as a blueprint to victory, as he too comes from a wrestling base. But until he earns a win off his own efforts and not another man’s misfortune, it’s hard to see how Elkins comes away victorious in this fight.

Joey Beltran (12-5) vs. Aaron Rosa (16-3)

Zombies are big right now, and Beltran was described as such by Pat Barry after the California native would not stop coming forward during their January matchup.

Having lost two in a row, Beltran desperately needs a win here. He’s 2-2 in the UFC, but with consecutive defeats and wins over guys who have gone a combined 1-5 in six UFC appearances, you don’t want to mess with the “lose three straight and you’re out” theory.

Rosa makes his UFC debut as a result of the reshuffling that happened when Lesnar was forced off the card; Beltran’s original opponent, Dave Herman, took Carwin’s spot when Carwin stepped in for Lesnar.

A veteran of Strikeforce and various regional promotions, the biggest win of Rosa’s career came against TUF 10 alum Abe Wagner in March. That sentence should give you some indication of what his long-term potential (or lack thereof) looks like.

That being said, all of Beltran’s fights to date have been entertaining, save for his debut win over Rolles Gracie, but that wasn’t his fault. His zombie-like resiliency and propensity for standing in the pocket and trading with his opponent makes him a fan favorite, and we should get more of that here.

Dustin Poirier (9-1) vs. Jason Young (8-3)

Young is a British kickboxer making his UFC debut as a replacement for the injured Rani Yahya. He earned a unanimous decision victory over BJJ black belt Jorge Britto in April on the first MMA card to be held in Ontario, and has lost just once (to UFC competitor Paul Sass) in his last five fights.

That being said, Poirier is the featured attraction in this one.

READ SPENCER KYTE’S EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH DUSTIN POIRIER

Six months after announcing his presence in the featherweight division by derailing Josh Grispi‘s title hopes, the Louisiana native and one of the stars of the documentary film Fightville is back to continue his climb up the 145 pound rankings.

Poirier is a quietly charismatic kid with a world of potential. In addition to the solid hands he’s shown through three fights in Zuffa-owned organizations, he’s got solid jiu-jitsu, decent wrestling, and fighting instincts that can’t be taught. He also hits really, really hard. As he said when we spoke before this bout, he doesn’t worry so much about game plans, focusing instead on doing whatever it takes to win the fight.

He needs to make sure that Young doesn’t do to him what he did to Grispi at the start of the year. This is a no-lose situation for the Brit, while Poirier has his place as an up-and-comer on the line in a fight that won’t really move him any further up the rankings. Both guys like to stand and trade strikes more than anything, and I expect them to do just that in this one.

This is my pick for Fight of the Night.

Nick Ring (11-0) vs. James Head (7-1)

We all know that the originality level for MMA nicknames falls somewhere between MTV re-booting Teen Wolf with a Twilight twist and the 483 guys named “Pitbull,” but these two rank one-two on the “Really?” scale.

It’s bad enough that Ring goes by “The Promise,” but the fact that Head and his team held a Twitter contest to select his nickname and landed on “Mr. Potato” manages to trump the even the Canadian’s high school schlock moniker. Yep, you’re going to hear Bruce Buffer say the words, “James `Mr. Potato’ Head” on Saturday afternoon.

It should also be noted that when the first and only real meaningful thing you want to talk about is the combatants poor choice of nicknames, you’re not looking at fight that carries much weight.

Ring was gifted a win in his UFC debut in February. After Riki Fukuda edged him out in two of three rounds on just about everyone’s scorecards, the judges in Australia made Ring the victor, which gives him this second chance to make a first impression. He’s beaten some decent Canadian competition over the years, and padded his stats against some cans as well, and has to have an impressive showing here or else it’s back to the regional circuit for Ring.

Head earns his first crack at the UFC on the strength of a win over former middleweight prospect Gerald Harris back in February. It was the biggest win of his relatively young career, and one that he absolutely has to build upon here if he hopes to remain on the roster.

Krzysztof Soszynski (25-11) vs. Mike Massenzio (12-4)

Just four days before he’ll step into the Octagon, Soszynski gets another change in opponent, as Massenzio replaced Igor Pokrajac and becomes the third opponent “The Polish Experiment” has been lined up against for UFC 131.

There really isn’t a lot that can be said about a fight that undergoes a facelift this late in the game. Massenzio is a tough kid who had a 1-2 run in the UFC. He missed the entire 2009 year due to injury and earned Fight of the Night honors with Brian Stann in his comeback fight, but coming out on the losing side of things got him released. He’s since earned a win on the regional circuit, and bumps up to light heavyweight for this one.

Soszynski has become arguably the most popular fighter to come off Season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter; yes, I think he’s more popular than Ryan Bader. He’s as scrappy as they come, as his two battles with Stephan Bonnar proved, and will need to adjust to a new stylistic matchup in this one on very short notice. He has a definite edge in this fight because he went through a full training camp in preparation for it – even if the camp was for a different opponent.

This fight is now a must-win situation for Soszynski. Four days isn’t a lot of time for Massenzio to game plan and get into much better shape than he’s been walking around in, so Soszynski needs to have a solid performance or else he’ll come under heavy criticism. He was favored to beat Pokrajac, and becomes an even bigger favorite now with the late change, and while upsets happen all the time, Soszynski doesn’t want to be on the wrong end of one here.

Jesse Bongfeldt (15-4-1) vs. Chris Weidman (5-0)

Like a number of fights on this card, this clash of middleweight prospects isn’t getting the respect it deserves.

Weidman is widely regarded as the best 185 pound prospect in the UFC and one of the top overall prospects in the sport. He looked solid in his UFC debut, defeating Alessio Sakara on short notice back in March, and comes into this bout as a late replacement again. At the very least, you have to applaud his willing to take whatever fights are offered to him.

For Bongfeldt, this is a chance to claim Weidman’s spot in on the prospect list by earning his first UFC win; he debuted at UFC 124 in December and battled back to earn a draw against Rafael Natal.

While he’s short on experience in the UFC, Bongfeldt holds wins over UFC vets Sean Pierson and TJ Grant, and has long been considered one of the top middleweight competitors in all of Canada.

He also could teach Nick Ring and James Head a thing or two about picking an awesome nickname; Jesse “Water” Bongfeldt…that’s a top 5 nickname. No doubt about it.

Weidman is an All-American wrestler and he’ll want to keep this fight on the ground as much as possible. While Bongfeldt has registered nine of his 15 wins by way of submission, he’s more of an opportunistic submission artist than anything else. He has the edge in the stand-up game, if only because Weidman has spent much more time developing his grappling game.

Because of the lack of depth in the middleweight ranks, the winner of this one takes a big step forward in the division and could be looking at a relatively well-known opponent next time out.

Sam Stout (16-6) vs. Yves Edwards (40-16)

This pairing of veteran UFC lightweights should turn out to be an entertaining affair.

While Stout has never managed to make his way beyond the middle of the 155 pound division, he routinely delivers exciting fights. His two wars with Spencer Fisher still deliver to this day, he’s earned Fight of the Night honors in three of his last four outings, and is impossible to knockout; “Hands of Stone” also has an iron jaw.

Meanwhile, Edwards returned to the UFC with a win over TUF 12 alum Cody McKenzie back in January, the 40th of his lengthy career. The man who introduced “thugjitsu” into the lexicon of martial arts styles used in the Octagon has won three straight and six of his last seven, with an almost equal number of wins by way of knockout (15) and submission (16) to date.

Stout will look to make this a kickboxing match, as he always done, and Edwards should do everything in his power to get this fight to the ground. Though he’s solid enough on the feet, he has a distinct edge over Stout on the ground, where Stout’s heavy hands and iron chin are less of a factor.

Stout looks to even his record in UFC’s on Canadian soil with a win here. The popular Canuck is 1-2 thus far in three trips to the Octagon in Montreal; this will be his first time competing in Vancouver.

For what it’s worth, Edwards is 1-0 in Canada, having earned a victory over Derrick Noble at MFC 24 in February 2010.

Donald Cerrone (14-3) vs. Vagner Rocha (6-1)

Yes, I’m disappointed that we’re not going to get to see Cerrone step into the cage with Mac Danzig. In a grudge that surfaced out of nowhere, Danzig asked for a fight with the former WEC contender, and since “Cowboy” is never one to back down, we were going to have ourselves an old fashion gunfight (not literally) here. It just wasn’t meant to be.

Danzig got hurt and has been replaced with Rocha, a skilled jiu jitsu practitioner who trains under 2009 ADCC champion Pablo Popovitch.

Much like the fight between Dustin Poirier and Jason Young, this is a serious trap fight for Cerrone, and that makes it interesting, at least to me.

When the WEC merger was announced, Cerrone headed up my list of crossover fighters who could become successful in part because of his skill, but also because of his bad boy charisma and propensity for saying things that generate heat.

So far, he’s come through on both ends, earning a second round submission over Paul Kelly in his debut and running his mouth just enough to irritate Danzig into asking for this fight in the first place.

As confident as Cerrone is on the ground, he needs to stick to his kickboxing roots in this one. He tends to get sloppy on the ground more than he does when he’s standing, and a momentarily break in concentration on the canvas against Rocha could lead to an upset loss. Just like Poirier, Cerrone doesn’t have a great deal to gain from a win here, other than the fact that you have to keep winning to keep moving forward.

For Rocha, this is his audition for a long-term spot on the UFC lightweight roster, and he needs to make the most of it. The 155 pound division is the deepest in the organization, so breaking through an securing a spot is harder than it would be in the middleweight or heavyweight divisions.

Demian Maia (14-2) vs. Mark Munoz (10-2)

Two weeks ago at UFC 130, we had a main event that featured a top 5 light heavyweight (Quinton Jackson) facing a another top 20 guy (Matt Hamill) and a bunch of people were genuinely interested in the outcome.

Now we have a clash between a top 5 middleweight (Maia) and an opponent who lands inside the top 20 (Munoz) and hardly anyone is batting an eye. Does “Rampage” really generate that much interest?

These two are 13-3 combined in the UFC with their only losses coming to the reigning champion, the current #1 contender, and the former #1 contender. That’s a far better pairing than anything we had at UFC 130, yet this fight has gotten absolutely no attention. Why is that?

Maia remains one of the best jiu-jitsu stylists in the sport today, a submission wizard who has worked hard since losing to Anderson Silva at UFC 112 to develop his hands. While he’s far from a finished product and will never be considered a knockout artist, he’s shown improvement, and adding hands to his unparalleled ground game makes him even more dangerous.

What I love about this fight is that Munoz is not only pretty darn good on the ground himself – he’s a two-time Division-I All-American and former National champion at Oklahoma State – but he’s also got fight-changing power in his hands.

With Silva set to clean out the division if he defeats Yushin Okami in August, the winner of this could be looking at a meeting with UFC 130 winner Brian Stann for place at the top of the division; TUF 14 coaches Jason “Mayhem” Miller and Michael Bisping probably factor in there somewhere too.

This fight looks like an upset waiting to happen to me, as Munoz is strong enough to not get dragged to the ground by Maia, and has the knockout power to end his night with one well-placed shot. Of course, Chael Sonnen had a tremendous collegiate wrestling background as well, and Maia still managed to finish that fight inside the first round.

Dave Herman (20-2) vs. Jon Olav Einemo (6-1)

What can I say? I like heavyweight fights. I think most people do.

There is something about two big dudes going toe-to-toe that just speaks to us. Boxing is always at its best when the heavyweight division is thriving, and the same goes for the UFC. With the division currently in a state of flux due to injuries (Cain Velasquez, Lesnar), inconsistency (Roy Nelson) or a combination of both (Rodrigo Nogueira), Herman and Einemo have a chance to earn themselves a permanent place on the roster with a good showing here.

I’m really intrigued to see what Einemo brings to the table in this one. In addition to liking heavyweight fights, I’m also partial to high level grappling, and that is Einemo’s calling card. He’s the only man to beat Roger Gracie in ADCC competition and won the heavyweight division at the illustrious grappling event back in 2003.

He hasn’t competed there since and hasn’t fought in MMA since 2006, so it is quite possible that he’s accumulated a great deal of rust while sitting on the sidelines. That being said, he should still have a huge advantage over Herman on the ground. The only question is whether he can get the fight there.

Herman has been one of the better heavyweight prospects in the sport for the last couple years, beating up a collection of has-beens and  like Don Frye and “Kiss” Nakao in various smaller promotions.

This is his first chance to step into the big leagues, and with the injury to Lesnar, he gets a more prominent spot on the card in a more favorable matchup. Herman’s striking skills play better against Einemo here on the main card than they would have against Beltran on the preliminary portion.

Yes, it is rare that we see two fighters making their UFC debuts featured so prominently on the pay-per-view portion of an event, but it’s not as if the UFC planned it out this way. In honor of the fallen TUF 13 coach who caused the retooling of the fight card, let’s just say this is their way of making chicken salad out of chicken, well, you know.

Kenny Florian (14-5) vs. Diego Nunes (16-1)

Glass half empty: Florian twice failed to capture the UFC lightweight title and lost a title eliminator bout to Gray Maynard, so he’s cutting to featherweight for the first time in hopes of making a run at Jose Aldo and the 145 pound title.

Glass half full: Two-time former title contender and perennial top 10 lightweight Florian makes his featherweight debut, giving the division a recognizable name that will help showcase the abundance of talent that goes relatively unnoticed in the lighter ranks.

Barman’s truth: Florian is looking for a way to stay relevant after missing his opportunities at lightweight, but he also serves as a quality name against Nunes, a fighter with a great record and absolutely zero traction with casual fans as of this point. A win over Florian changes that, of course, which is why this pairing makes perfect sense.

Florian is still a solid competitor and a popular fighter thanks to his time on The Ultimate Fighter and ESPN’s MMA Live, and it will be interesting to see how his body responds to dropping an additional ten pounds in this one. I know from speaking to him leading up to this fight that he didn’t do a practice cut, so keep on eye on the weigh-ins to see how he looks.

In terms of skills, he’s an instant contender in the featherweight division, which makes this move a smart one for him, provided the cut doesn’t take too much out of him.

Nunes has won three straight and five out of six between the UFC and WEC to climb into quietly climb into contention in the featherweight ranks. He enters this fight of a split decision victory over former champ Mike Brown, a win that has lost some of its shine with Brown having slumped badly in recent years.

Still, at 16-1, you have to recognize that Nunes is a legitimate top 10 contender and difficult test for Florian in his featherweight debut. With Aldo on the sidelines and the list of elite contenders being incredibly short (read: Chad Mendes), the winner of this could find themselves no more than one fight away from challenging for the title.

If Florian wins, don’t be surprised if he gets his wish and even ends up jumping Mendes and facing Aldo once he’s health. Fair or not, it’s a much more marketable fight, but he’s got to get through Nunes first.

Shane Carwin (12-1) vs. Junior dos Santos (12-1)

While neither man is close to being the pay-per-view draw that Lesnar is, a lot of people think this is a more entertaining fight, and it’s easy to see why.

Both Carwin and dos Santos are knockout artists who like to stand in the center of the cage and throw bombs. As much as I was curious to see how Lesnar rebounded from his loss to Velasquez and dealt with the power of dos Santos, I’m equally intrigued by the potential for an epic heavyweight slugfest where both guys have legitimate one-punch power.

I could get all super-analyst here and say that it would be a good time for Carwin to return to his Division-II National champion wrestling roots or dos Santos to break out some of that Team Nogueira jiu jitsu he’s purported to have, but let’s be realistic: it ain’t happening.

The referee will tell them to fight, they’ll walk to the center of the cage, start throwing bombs and won’t stop until one of them is looking up at the lights.

And it’s going to be awesome.