Spotlighting the shooting stars
We’ve reached the halfway point of the year. I don’t know where the time went, either. It was April and I was looking forward to UFC 129 in Toronto, and the next thing I know it’s July.
With fifty percent of the year in the books, the time has come to start looking ahead to what’s in store for the remainder of 2011.
There are some big fights on the horizon, and that doesn’t include the still-unscheduled trilogy bout between Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard.
I want to look at fighters from each division who could make an impact as summer transitions to fall and eventually leads to winter. This isn’t a list of the next big thing in each division; they’re athletes who could make a serious impact on each weight class. They’re fighters worth watching in the second half of 2011. Here are my picks.
Brendan Schaub
Heavyweight: Brendan Schaub
Schaub has another marquee name on his dance card in August, as he travels to Brazil to face Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 134. Schaub is climbing the heavyweight ranks, and a win over Noguiera would move him into the upper reaches of the division.
That is why Schaub is someone you should be watching in the coming months. He’s got the talent to defeat Nogueira, especially considering “Minotauro” is coming off an extended hiatus and a number of injuries. But should he get through the former Pride and UFC champion, Schaub moves alongside the likes of Frank Mir, Roy Nelson and Brock Lesnar in the upper echelon of the division.
How Schaub stacks up at that level is anybody’s guess right now. He’s faired well since losing to Nelson on The Ultimate Fighter Finale, finishing three of his four opponents and slowly making his way up the ladder. But a win over Nogueira puts him in new territory against better competition.
He’s one of a handful of heavyweight prospects who will be looking to further establish themselves in the coming months, and Schaub is the closest to being a contender.
With the division needing new blood and the chance to extend his winning streak to five and add another big name to his list of conquests, keeping on eye on “The Hybrid” is the right thing to do.
For my money, there isn’t a fighter in a more intriguing position right now than Evans. After waiting out the injured Mauricio “Shogun” Rua for the title shot he earned at UFC 114, Evans fell prey to the injury bug himself. And then everything exploded.
His former friend Jon Jones not only replaced him against Rua, but won the belt and said he’d fight Evans, leading to a very public break-up and several days of dirty laundry being aired on Twitter. Evans bolted Greg Jackson’s gym in response, taking long-time coach Mike Van Arsdale and setting up shop with the Imperial Athletics team in Florida.
The friendship-turned-feud was supposed to come to a head in the cage at UFC 133, but Jones was forced out of the bout with a thumb injury that put Evans opposite unbeaten prospect Phil Davis. But Jones skipped surgery and penciled in Evans’ arch enemy Quinton Jackson on his fight card just forty-nine days later.
The former light heavyweight champion is at career crossroads befitting a Robert Frost poem; two roads diverged in a yellow wood, only Evans doesn’t get to just pick which path he takes next.
Davis is far from an easy out; he’s basically Evans circa 2006, only better. His wrestling is superior, he’s a more fluid and dynamic athlete, and he’s made his way to main event status quicker than his UFC 133 counterpart.
If he’s able to defeat Davis, you’d think Evans would be in line for a meeting with the winner of Jones vs. Jackson at UFC 135, but then again, everyone thought he was already in line for a title shot. Should he lose, the former light heavyweight champion could get sent careening down the contenders list, buried beneath Rua, Lyoto Machida, Davis and others.
What takes the intrigue level up to 12 is that Evans has never been one to mince words; expect more Twitter fights and quality quotes in the weeks to come.
UFC middleweight Sonnen
Middleweight: Chael Sonnen
UFC middleweight Sonnen
Speaking of guys who offer up quality quotes…
As soon as the greatest proponent and practitioner of verbal warfare got cleared to fight again, Sonnen was right back behind a microphone sending “fighting words” in the direction of Anderson Silva, Wanderlei Silva and Brazil as a whole. The self-proclaimed “American Gangster” is a reality television show waiting to happen; he can’t seem to keep his persona on pause if a camera is rolling, and we’re the prime beneficiaries.
Sonnen has signed up to fight surging middleweight contender Brian Stann at UFC 136. The bout is expected to be a title eliminator, which should help load the weaponry for another barrage of sarcastic salvos from Sonnen in the weeks to come. Conservative estimates are that between now and October 8 in Houston, Sonnen should be good for at least 57 inflammatory comments and a couple interviews he will later claim he never did.
Even if he didn’t have a fight on the horizon, Sonnen would be the selection here. He’s awesome/crazy/annoying/amazing all bundled into one, and you can’t help but pay attention to him.
Welterweight: Charlie Brenneman
You know what sucks about pulling off a big upset and garnering all kinds of attention the process? The expectations heading into the encore.
Brenneman earned Rocky comparisons for stepping in late against Rick Story and coming away with a unanimous decision victory. It was by far the biggest win of his career. As impressive as the victory was, the pressure is now on Brenneman to deliver once again.
If the fight against Story was his debut single – his MMA Jagged Little Pill or Cracked Rear View – Brenneman needs to submit a better sophomore effort than Alanis or Hootie if he wants to remain in the limelight. Beating a newly minted top ten opponent like Story puts Brenneman in line for a biggish name next – think Anthony Johnson or Martin Kampmann, not Jon Fitch or B.J. Penn – and whoever he faces, Brenneman will need to prove his upset of Story wasn’t a fluke.
Should he be able to do that, “The Spaniard” should end 2011 in the welterweight top 10.
On August 14, Henderson will help determine what becomes of the cluster of UFC lightweight contenders. His bout with Jim Miller holds the key to either clearing up the congestion or adding another car to the crumpled heap of challengers piling on one another after each event.
The reason I chose Henderson and not Miller is simple: if Miller wins, he fights for the title and we start sorting out the rest of the wreckage. It’s an entirely different matter if Henderson wins.
A win for the former WEC champ catapults him into a small group of fighters patiently waiting to see what happens next. Along with Melvin Guillard, Clay Guida, and Dennis Siver, Henderson would have to play wait and see while the UFC makes some decisions about the division.
He’s got the talent to pull off the upset. His wrestling is solid, his cardio is top notch, and his striking has steadily improved over the last few years. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s a decedent of Gumby, a lineage that makes him impervious to submissions.
Anthony Pettis got the lion’s share of the attention when the WEC lightweight joined the UFC roster, but it’s Henderson who already has a win in the Octagon under his belt and a chance to earn his way into contention with second serving of victory next month.
One of these days, a fighter is going to come over from Japan and live up to the hype. Everyone coming to the UFC from the Japan circuit has long since passed their prime. Or maybe they were never that good to begin with. The pressure is on Hioki to be that fighter.
A perennial top 5 featherweight, the former Shooto and Sengoku champion holds wins over Bellator tournament semifinalists Ronnie Mann and Marlon Sandro, and a pair of victories over UFC 129 title challenger Mark Hominick. At age 27 and boasting a 12-1-1 record over his last 14 fights, Hioki is firmly entrenched in his prime and the best hope for reversing the trend of underachieving Japanese imports.
If that weren’t pressure enough, there is the added onus of being the lone man many feel could possibly beat reigning featherweight champion Jose Aldo. As a new addition to the UFC, the 145 pound ranks aren’t exactly overflowing with proven commodities, which explains Kenny Florian’s one-fight climb to the top of the list of contenders.
Hioki, however, has proven his mettle, albeit outside of the organization. He shouldn’t be more than a win or two away from championship contention, which makes his fall debut all the more important.
Joseph Benavidez
Bantamweight: Joseph Benavidez
I want to start a milk carton campaign with a picture of Benavidez on the side since it seems like just about everyone has forgotten about the second best bantamweight in the world.
Yeah, I said it. And you’re not going to argue, because you know I’m right.
Benavidez has lost twice in his career, but only to one man. The trouble is that said man sits atop the bantamweight division. With a pair of losses to Dominick Cruz already on his resume, Benavidez currently resides in “Rich Franklin Territory,” forced to beat up everyone else with only slim hopes of getting a title shot.
A win over Eddie Wineland on the next UFC on Versus event in August would be his third straight, and would put him in line for a title shot under normal circumstances. But he’s not operating under normal circumstances.
The twist in all this is that the second the UFC rolls out the flyweight division, Benavidez becomes the best flyweight on the roster. Knowing that fact, you’d think he would get featured a little more; help build his name so that when he moves to 125 pounds and vies for the title there, fans will know the division’s elite in advance.
For now, he’ll keep on racking up wins while being mired in anonymity and a state of permanent contender purgatory. Hopefully that changes some time soon; Benavidez is too talented to be relegated to undercards and Facebook fights.
