UFC 132 Preview & Predictions

Breaking down the bouts that make up Saturday’s fight card

Saturday night, UFC 132 brings to a close a tremendous run of six consecutive weekends with a premiere mixed martial arts event on the calendar.

UFC 130 may have missed the mark to start of this extended run, and Strikeforce’s voyage to the Lone Star State left people wanting more. That being said, the last UFC pay-per-view hit all the marks and Sunday’s event on Versus ended with an a thunderous bang courtesy of Cheick Kongo.

Picking up where Pittsburgh left off, UFC 132 boasts a main card headlined by the first ever UFC bantamweight title fight, an historic moment dwarfed by the dislike the warring parties have for one another.

From the potentially epic brawl that could erupt between Wanderlei Silva and Chris Leben to what could be Tito Ortiz’s final fight in the UFC, the main card is full of enticing story lines. I haven’t even mentioned the fact that the next welterweight title contender could be determine as well..

The cloudy race for top contender status in the lightweight division could continue getting clearer with the trio of competitive contests slated for Saturday night, one on the main card and the others showcased on Spike TV.

All in all, UFC 132 has the markings of a marquee event capable of producing some 4th of July fireworks a couple days early.

Jeff Hougland (9-4) vs. Donny Walker (15-6)

I’m sorry, who?

No one saw the announcement of this bantamweight bout coming when the UFC added Hougland and Walker to the lineup. While new fighters enter the fray all the time, they’re usually guys who are on somebody’s radar. Neither of these men fit that bill.

For what it’s worth, Hougland is putting together an interesting career. He started out 1-4 including a loss to Strikeforce lightweight champ Gilbert Melendez at WEC 6. He then proceeded to rattle off four straight wins, take four years off, and come back to add four more victories to his record. “Hellbound” has finished each of his last four opponents by submission in the opening round, and has never gone to a decision in his career.

Walker is a 31-year-old from Cleveland who brings a seven fight winning streak of his own into his Octagon debut. Included in those conquests is Bellator tournament semifinalist Kenny Foster.

While he’s got the most name brand win of the two newcomers, it doesn’t help Walker’s odds that four of the six losses he’s suffered have come by submission, and Hougland almost always win by forcing his opponent to tap.

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Anthony Njokuani (13-5) vs. Andre Winner (11-5-1)

There is little chance of someone getting submitted in this one, as Nigerian-born kickboxer Njoukani meets British boxer Winner. Of course, now that I’ve said that, watch somebody connect on a Peruvian necktie or a gogoplata or something.

Chances are though that neither guy will be going out of their comfort zones too much, as both are in desperate need of a win. Some believed Njokuani deserved the nod in his last fight with Edson Barboza. Regardless of your views on the verdict, a loss here would move him to 1-4 over his last five fights and that’s not a good look for anyone.

Winner is in a similar boat, bringing a two fight skid into this one. After showing all kinds of potential on Season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter and through his first two post-TUF appearances, Winner’s grappling deficiency has been exploited in his last two.

Getting wrestled to a decision by Nik Lentz is one thing; having German striker Dennis Siver take you down, tap your arm in a body triangle and choke you out is something entirely different.

Both fighters have their back against the wall, which should prompt them to come out swinging. I’ve probably just jinxed it again, meaning we’ll get a sluggish grind from two guys who can’t really wrestle.

Brad Tavares (7-0) vs. Aaron Simpson (8-2)

Tucked away on the undercard, far away from the spotlight is this little gem; the kind of fight I get hyped for each and every event.

Tavares is a talented striker best known for his time on Season 11 of The Ultimate Fighter. He kneed former prospect Jordan Smith into oblivion to get into the house, and knocked veteran Phil Baroni out of the UFC with one in his first fight away from the Reality TV franchise.

Simpson became a feel good story early in his UFC run; an older guy getting into the sport later than most, cruising out to a 7-0 start to his career. Then “The A-Train” got knocked off the rails by Leben. Mark Munoz handed him a second straight defeat five months later before Simpson literally wrestled out a win against Mario Miranda this past March.

The reason I like fights like this so much is because I think Simpson is a guy who people put too much stock into and Tavares is a kid who isn’t getting enough credit. Simpson could end up wrestling away another decision, but Tavares has all kinds of knockout power, and if Simpson comes in sloppy, it’s lights out.

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe I’m right. We’ll find out Saturday night.

Brian Bowles (9-1) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (14-5-2)

Takeya Mizugaki is the Arn Anderson of the UFC.

Where are my wrestling fans that remember Arn Anderson? “The Enforcer”? Anybody?

“Double A” was a great worker, technically proficient, capable of putting on a great show every time he took to the ring, but he was never the star attraction. As a founding and long-time member of The Four Horseman, Anderson played wingman to Ric Flair. He was a tag team specialist, and the only singles title he won was the NWA/WCW Television title, the equivalent to the Intercontinental belt in the WWE.

Why am I telling you all this? Well, that’s the way I see Mizugaki. If they introduced a belt for the best non-headlining fighters to challenge for, it would be his. The trouble is that belt doesn’t exist, and Mizugaki is left to alternate wins over the best of the non-championship bunch with losses to the bantamweight elite. From this moment on, I’m hereby bestowing the nickname “The Enforcer” on the Japanese fighter.

The trouble for “The Enforcer” in this one is that he’s facing one of those elite fighters that have given him so much trouble.

Bowles is a former bantamweight champion making just his second appearance since losing the belt to Cruz in March 2010.

Finally at full health, Bowles beat Damacio Page in the exact same time and fashion he did the first time in their second meeting. He’s fallen out of the title talk a little because of his time on the sidelines, but a win here puts him right back in the hunt.

George Sotiropoulos (14-3) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (14-5)

For the love of all things right in the world, please let these two highly skilled and talented jiu-jitsu players do battle on the ground.

If this fight hits the canvas, it could be beautiful and compelling; two quality black belts fishing for submissions, fighting for position, and showing the artistry of high level jiu-jitsu. If it stays standing, get ready for some relatively ugly kickboxing.

Sotiropoulos is one loss removed from an eight fight winning streak and being within spitting distance of a lightweight title shot. Dennis Siver scuttled all that at UFC 127 – in the Aussie’s backyard no less — leaving “Sots” to regroup and start all over.

Last time we saw dos Anjos, Clay Guida was grinding a shoulder into his face against the cage, earning a submission win at UFC 117. While we were a little confused initially, it turned out that Guida had broken the Brazilian’s jaw. Finally ready to return, he gets a chance to make a quick impact in the rankings by upsetting Sotiropoulos in this one.

The ground is where they’re both most comfortable, so I really hope it goes there. Bad kickboxing sucks.

Melvin Guillard (27-8) vs. Shane Roller (10-3)

No disrespect to Siver and Matt Wiman, but this fight should be kicking off the main card. There is no telling what is going to happen in this one, which makes it a must-see for Saturday night.

Guillard has explosive striking and is slippery quick. He’s unbeaten since moving his training to Albuquerque, won four straight and seven of his last eight, and starched Siver in 36 seconds when they met three years ago. Last time out, he buzz-sawed his way through Evan Dunham, finishing the promising prospect with a barrage of knees and punches along the cage.

Roller brings a wrestling base and successful collegiate career with him into the cage, however, he showed in his last appearance that he’s packing a pretty solid right hand as well.

The former Oklahoma State standout walloped Thiago Tavares at UFC Live in Louisville, and brings a nice little two fight winning streak into this one. He’s won five of his last six, the only hiccup being a three round struggle with Anthony Pettis at WEC 50.

The deciding factor in this one could be which fighter is able to use their sneaky talent the best. While everyone talks about Roller’s wrestling and right hand, he’s got submission game that has been coming along nicely over the last few years.

Conversely, no one ever seems to remember that Guillard was a state wrestling champion in high school, probably because he either uses it defensively or to hand over fights to Nate Diaz.

Matt Wiman (13-5) vs. Dennis Siver (18-7)

Here’s why I slagged this bout just a minute ago:

Wiman has won three-in-a-row, but one of those was the wonky Mac Danzig fight at UFC 115 and another was a win over Shane Nelson. Siver, meanwhile, is coming off a big upset over Sotiropoulos, but outside of that, his biggest win is Spencer Fisher.

Here’s why I’ll slag this bout again right now: I have a feeling it is going to be a horrible start to the pay-per-view.

Listen, there is a huge difference between Siver fending off Sotiropoulos’ attempts to bring their fight to the ground and doing the same against Wiman. A guy like Wiman with a wrestling base brings a very different setup to his takedowns, and he’s got much more fluid stand-up than Sotiropoulos too.

As always, I could be wrong. Siver could have morphed into the lightweight, German Chuck Liddell who can’t be taken down and wings all kinds of awesomeness at you from crazy angles, but I’m not sold.

If he proves me wrong here, I’ll never slag him again. If he doesn’t and this fight goes the way I think it will — grind central to a decision win for Wiman – expect a rousing chorus of “I Told You So” in Monday’s 10 Things We Learned column.

Carlos Condit (26-5) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (14-0-1)

Meet the two men vying for the chance to challenge Georges St. Pierre for the welterweight title after he’s done disposing of Nick Diaz.

The unbeaten Kim gets absolutely no love from the vast majority because he’s (1) a judoka who out-grapples opponents, (2) a bit of a blanket at times, and (3) hasn’t come close to finishing a fight in three years.

I’m not saying you have to finish fights to get recognition, but Kim hits the trifecta for turning off fans. He gains back a couple points for awkwardly proclaiming he wanted to fight GSP after Nate Diaz nearly stole a win from him in the final round at UFC 125, but not enough.

He’s like Lyoto Machida heading into the Thiago Silva fight. Almost gave away a win against Tito, unbeaten but no big wins, zero “Oh Wow!” moments. Then he goes out, blasts Silva right at the close of the opening round, and not only is all forgotten, but he’s given a heavy push.

Would the same kind of solid finish do the same for Kim?

The final WEC welterweight champion, Condit lands on the complete opposite side of the spectrum from his opponent. The guy is one of the all-time exciting fighters — that’s right, I said it — and has delivered four pretty impressive performances since coming to play with the big boys.

He’s made no bones about being ready to challenge his teammate if given the opportunity — which I’m sure Dana White likes to hear – and is coming off a wicked counter-hook knockout of Dan Hardy back in October 2010.

Another memorable outing here, and he could be making his UFC main event debut in 2012.

Ryan Bader (12-1) vs. Tito Ortiz (15-8)

This fight makes no sense to me whatsoever.

Despite the fact that Tito has done the same fantastic job he’s always done of (1) selling the fight and (2) selling himself, that facts remain the same.

Ortiz hasn’t won since 2006 and his last two victories came against the pumped up, broken down remains of Ken Shamrock. He’s lost three straight, is winless in five, and is coming off a fight where he lost to the confirmed gatekeeper of the light heavyweight division, Matt Hamill.

What in there sounds compelling enough to put him in the middle of a pay-per-view card and makes Bader ask for this fight?

Listen, I completely understand the cache Ortiz’s name still carries with casual fans, and the elfish amount of marketability it give Bader if he’s the guy to finally retire “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy,” but it’s not like Bader isn’t already a well-known commodity.

He won Season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter and is coming off a trio of main card appearances on pay-per-view events. Everyone remembers him smashing on Keith Jardine, he beat “Little Nog” in the co-main event of UFC 119, and lost to Jon Jones just under four months ago. How much more recognizable does the kid want to be?

Personally, I think the risk is greater than the reward here. While I don’t see Bader having any trouble with Ortiz, he stands to lose much more than he gains should Ortiz manage to pull off the upset.

Unless he ends this quick or in impressive fashion, I can’t see a win doing much for Bader’s standing and prospects at this point.

Wanderlei Silva (30-10-1) vs. Chris Leben (25-7)

slobberknocker: a fierce and violent fight amongst two people, or a number of participants that eventually turns into a full-fledged donnybrook

Call it a slobberknocker, a donnybrook or anything else you want; at the end of the day, this one is going to be a serious brawl with two guys who want nothing more than to give and take punishment for the sake of entertaining the fans.

No wonder Silva is one of the most universally beloved fighters in the sport. As for Leben, his penchant for punching people in the face while eating his fair share of knuckle sandwiches has him walking to the Octagon for the 18th time.

He’s tied with Michael Bisping for the most wins by a fighter who has never challenged for a title with eleven, and has made one less trip to the cage than GSP.

Neither of those stats really mean anything here. No stat does, actually. This one comes down to who lands the harder punch first.

If both fighters were in their prime, I’d be pegging this as Fight of the Year. Since they’re both on the wrong side of that line, whoever makes solid impact with the sweet spot first is getting their hand raised.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with this kind of fight, and I’ll be watching intently at home on Saturday night; I just don’t want people to read too much into whatever transpires.

Both guys are on the fringes of contention, and making a run at the title is about as likely this fight being an uneventful wrestling match.

Dominick Cruz (17-1) vs. Urijah Faber (25-4)

Unlike the previous fight, this one is overflowing with drama and impact and meaning. Where to start?

Faber is the only man to ever defeat Cruz, submitting him in just 98 seconds way back at WEC 26 when both were fighting as featherweights. At the time, Faber was the defending champion and on his way to becoming the poster boy for the organization.

Now Cruz is the defending champion with the potential to become one of the breakthrough stars of the UFC, trying to fend off the advances of the resurgent Faber.

Did I mention they hate each other?

Hate probably isn’t the right word; it’s more like an overall disdain for everything about the other. It’s led to some awesome pre-fight banter and should boil over to produce an epic encounter in the cage on Saturday night.

Additionally, this is an “All Growed Up” moment for the WEC. Cruz and Faber are the inaugural two former WEC competitors to headline a UFC event, bringing the lighter weights to the biggest stage in the sport for the for the first time.

If you’re one of those people (like me) who spent the last two or three years telling anyone who would listen – and all kinds of people who wouldn’t – that they needed to see how awesome the WEC and their fighters were, you’ve got to feel a little warm and fuzzy inside.

At least I do. Maybe I’m just weird like that?

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