UFC 135: Jones vs. Rampage Preview & Predictions

Breaking down the action from The Mile High City

We’ve got a compact ten-fight lineup for UFC 135, headlined by the UFC light heavyweight title bout between Jon Jones and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson.

Just like Saturday night, we’ll work our way through to the main event, stopping at every fight along the way to let you know a little about some of the fighters you might not be familiar with, and what to expect when the cage door closes.

James Te Huna (12-5) vs. Ricardo Romero (11-2)

A meeting of two light heavyweights coming off losses kicks off the UFC 135 festivities in Denver.

Te Huna was in over his head last time out, losing to emerging star Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 127 back in February. Considering “The Mauler” is now making a push for the top 10, this fight is much more the New Zealander’s speed.

After a solid debut that saw him battle through a busted jaw to finish Seth Petruzelli, Romero came crashing back down to Earth in just 21 last time out. Kyle Kingsbury starched him, and now Romero—like Te Huna—needs to get back into the win column.

Who controls things on the ground will determine the winner. Romero has solid jiu-jitsu and we’ve seen Te Huna fall prey to submissions before, but if the Kiwi can maintain top control, he has the strength/power/size to grind out a win.

Takeya Mizugaki (14-6-2) vs. Cole Escovedo (17-7)

Mizugaki is consistent in his inconsistency, if that makes any sense. He alternates wins and losses, moving between marginal talents (wins) and the bantamweight elite (losses), and the pattern looks to continue here.

After losing to former champ Brian Bowles in July, the solid-but-unspectacular Japanese fighter comes back down the ladder to face Escovedo in hopes of getting back into the win column and avoiding the axe.

This is Escovedo’s “Thank You” fight after having stepped in on short notice to face Renan Barao earlier in the year. He’s lost three of his last four, and while the other two were outside of the UFC, they came against current UFC talents, so a loss would be the end of the line.

We should get a solid stand-up battle here, as Mizugaki has been keen on keeping fights standing since debuting under the Zuffa banner at WEC 40. Escovedo’s best asset is his striking, so that will suit him just fine.

Winner stays, loser most likely leaves town, so both men should come out firing.

Junior Assuncao (12-4) vs. Eddie Yagin (15-4-1)

The elder of The Fighting Assuncaos, Junior returns to the UFC after a four year hiatus, riding a six fight winning streak.

He’s down at a more natural weight after going 1-2 at lightweight in his first UFC run, and like his brothers—Raphael and Freddy—has a dangerous combination of good hands and slick submission skills.

Yagin makes his UFC debut on the heals of an impressive submission win over former Bellator champ Joe Soto at the start of August. A compact combatant, Yagin has a solid all-around game, and should be riding high off the Soto win coming into this one.

While I’m sure something higher up on the card will end up taking home the award, this is my pick for Fight of the Night. Both guys are good everywhere, and with the featherweight ranks soon to fill out thanks to TUF 14, winning is the only way to stay on the roster.

Nick Ring (12-0) vs. Tim Boetsch (13-4)

This bout got the Under the Radar treatment for this card, as it amazes me that few people are talking about this match-up.

Ring dominated James Head at UFC 131, scoring a third round submission win to remain unbeaten. It also eased the memory of his controversial win over Riki Fukuda from earlier in the year.

A former light heavyweight, Boetsch made his middleweight debut at UFC 130 and tossed Kendall Grove around the cage. “The Barbarian” is one of those guys who doesn’t have any real dominant skill; he’s just a beast of a man with great power and size, especially for the 185-pound division.

The winner of this becomes a fighter to watch in the middleweight ranks heading into 2012, at least in my books.

Tony Ferguson (11-2) vs. Aaron Riley (30-12-1)

Despite being just 30-years-old, Riley is a grizzled veteran who has fought everywhere during his career. He’s unofficially the guy who welcomes TUF grads to the Octagon, as Ferguson is the third former cast member he’s fought over his last four opponents.

This is a solid test for the Season 13 winner, as Riley is good everywhere and comes into this fight well-prepared after spending the last three months training with Team Jackson.

Ferguson showed a good blend of wrestling and hands during the last season, and will need to continue developing in both areas to become a threat in the deep lightweight division, and beating Riley would be a good start.

Mark Hunt (6-7) vs. Ben Rothwell (31-7)

While this isn’t a fight with serious implications in the deepening heavyweight division, it should be entertaining, as both Hunt and Rothwell are true heavyweights, and they’re each in desperate need of a win.

Hunt broke his four-and-a-half year, six-fight losing streak last time out, knocking out Chris Tuchscherer in violent fashion at UFC 127. He’s riding out the end of his old Pride contract, and essentially needs to keep winning to keep fighting in the UFC.

This marks the first fight for Rothwell since decisioning Gilbert Yvel at UFC 115 in June 2010. He tore his ACL and suffered a deviated septum in the bout, and has been healing and rebuilding himself ever since.

Rothwell is the more well-rounded of the two, but the time away and Hunt’s one-punch power can’t be overlooked. Hunt will need to do everything in his power to keep this standing if he has any chance of winning.

Nate Diaz (13-7) vs. Takanori Gomi (32-7)

Check out The Face-Off: Diaz vs. Gomi for further analysis

This one is like the lightweight version of the Hunt-Rothwell fight, in that it has no real barring on the lightweight rankings, but it should still be pretty fun to watch.

The younger Diaz returns to lightweight after losing two straight at 170. I would be more excited about the move if he didn’t leave the division on a 1-3 skid. Fighting at ’55 saps him of much of his power, and while he has very good jiu-jitsu, he’s never found a way to really set it up well.

Once the best lightweight on the planet, Gomi is no longer “The Fireball Kid” of old. He still has knockout power—ask Tyson Griffin—but he’s too keen reliant on throwing big punches, which usually leaves him exhausted after the opening five minutes.

Still, this is a compelling contest, given the Diaz-Gomi history, and the fact tat Nate, like his brother Nick, will talk an inordinate amount of junk before, during, and after the fight.

Travis Browne (11-0-1) vs. Rob Broughton (15-5-1)

I would call this a trap fight for Browne, who is coming off an impressive finish of Stefan Struve.

Broughton is unheralded and relatively unknown, but still very dangerous, which leaves Browne with much to lose and little to gain. For the record, he’s in no way overlooking the Briton and is prepared for a war on Saturday night.

The unbeaten Hawaiian did his training camp at Jackson’s in Albuquerque this time around, and raved about it when we spoke last week. He has excellent striking and an underrated ground game honed during his time working with Master Lloyd Irvin and the Alliance MMA team.

Broughton is a bear of a man who brings a five-fight winning streak into this one. He choked out Vinicius Queiroz in his UFC debut in October of last year, and has won eight of ten overall.

A win for Browne should mean a step up to face the bigger names next time out, while an upset for Broughton puts him on the map moving forward.

Matt Hughes (45-8) vs. Josh Koscheck (15-5)

Like Koscheck, I’ve wanted to see this fight for a long time. I don’t know why the AKA guys always called out Hughes—I’m sure there is some story behind it—but I’m happy to see it finally go down this weekend.

We’ve seen two very different version of Hughes in his last two fights. He got popped and put away quickly by BJ Penn last time out, but did the same to Ricardo Almeida the fight before that. While he’s always prepared and always in shape, it’s hard to know if Hughes has enough left in the tank to get by a top 10 welterweight.

On the other side of things, how much can we expect from Koscheck on 19 days notice? He’s the more athletic of the two and the more diverse striker, but getting back in shape and hard sparring in the gym is not the same as having Hughes standing across from you trying to dominate you.

Personally, I like this fight more than the original bout, and am looking forward to finally seeing it happen.

Jon Jones (13-1) vs. Quinton Jackson (32-8)

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: every Jon Jones fight is a must-see fight. The fact that there is legit heat between these two only ups the ante.

The light heavyweight champion could become one of the best ever if he continues performing the way his has to date. He is one of the most well-rounded and talented fighters in the sport today, and he’s just 24-years-old. There really is no measurable ceiling for “Bones” at this point.

While everyone knows what to expect from Jackson, the wild card is his conditioning and focus. He says this is the hardest he’s trained for a fight in his career, and he seems intent on stopping Jones’ ascension, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the best “Rampage” we’ve seen in years on Saturday night.

But will that be enough?

That’s the question that will have us all tuning in tomorrow night.