UFC Fight Night 25 Preview & Predictions

Breaking down the Battle on the Bayou

Any Saturday night where you get to watch 12 free UFC fights is a good Saturday night.

I know some of the names are completely foreign to people; there are even a handful of guys that I haven’t seen before, and that’s rare. Of course, two years ago when Jon Jones made his UFC debut there weren’t a ton of people who knew who he was either.

While there isn’t a future light heavyweight champion in this group—in part because there are no fights above middleweight on the card—there are some new names to watch and a few fights that should be exciting.

Besides, they’re free, and free is awesome.

Justin Edwards (6-1) vs. Jorge Lopez (11-1)

If you were one of the handful of people who loyally watched The Ultimate Fighter last season, you’ll remember Edwards as the miniature Randy Couture who replaced Myles Jury in the very first episode.

Lopez is a Wanderlei Silva protege who has rattle off ten consecutive wins. The one knock against him is that he doesn’t have the killer instinct of his mentor, though few can match Wand in that regard.

This is a good test for both. Edwards will test Lopez’s takedown defense, and need to show that he can withstand the Muay Thai assault Lopez will surely unleash, particularly on his legs.

Mike Lullo (8-3) vs. Robert Peralta (14-3)

This is Lullo’s “Thanks for Helping Us Out” fight; a second cup of coffee in the bigs for a guy who took a fight late last time out and lost. Not only did Lullo lose his bout, he got his legs chopped out from under him by Edson Barboza.

He was supposed to meet Mackens Semerzier here, but “Mack da Menace” got hurt. Peralta makes his UFC debut in his place, six months removed from earning a split decision victory over Dream featherweight champ Hiroyuki Takaya at the Diaz vs. Daley event.

Lullo benefits by being back down at his natural weight class and putting in a full camp, but Peralta is a tough kid with a good pedigree and better wins on his resume.

TJ Waldburger (13-6) vs. Mike Stumpf (11-2)

Even before the last minute change in opponents, this was a must win fight for Waldburger. He scored a tepid decision win over the unimpressive David Mitchell in his debut, then got starched by Johny Hendricks in Seattle. Now that he’s facing Stumpf on five days notice, the “you’ve gotta show us something” factor has gone way up.

Conversely, Stumpf has got nothing to lose here, except the fight itself. He’s stepping up late, which should buy him another opportunity down the line, and isn’t in so far over his head that a win is completely out of the question.

Waldburger has some good wins on his record that I can’t really fathom after having watched him live in Seattle; the thought of him beating Pat Healy and Brian Foster doesn’t compute for me right now. Regardless, he needs re-live those efforts here or else he’ll be back on the Texas regional circuit for his next fight.

Clay Harvison (9-3) vs. Seth Baczynski (13-6)

With 13 seasons in the books, there are plenty of TUF alumni kicking around to fill-in when half of an all-TUF battle goes down with an injury.

Harvison, a member of last season’s cast who topped the previously discussed Justin Edwards in the finale, was supposed to fight Season 9 finalist DaMarques Johsnon. With “Darkness” forced out, Season 11 cast member Baczynski steps up in his place.

Now training out of Power MMA with Ryan Bader and company, Baczynski was won back-to-back fights since losing to Brad Tavares on the Seaosn 11 finale, including handing TriStar product Alex Garcia the first loss of his career.

These two should put together a good scrap here. Harvison showed heart and moxie fighting through a mangled finger last season, and Baczynski has been impressive since regrouping after being on the show.

Ken Stone (9-3) vs. Donny Walker (15-7)

Welcome to the only “Loser Leaves Town” match on tomorrow night’s card.

Walker debuted a couple events back, losing to Jeff Hougland at UFC 132. Though he had his moments, Walker’s conditioning failed him and he didn’t really mount any prolonged attacks in dropping a unanimous decision at the start of July.

Things have been even worse for Stone, who signed with the WEC sporting a 9-1 record and has yet to see the second round while losing twice.

Eddie Wineland knocked him out with a powerslam on the last WEC show back in December, then he was tabbed to welcome Scott Jorgensen back to the cage for the first time since he his title fight against Dominick Cruz; “Young Guns” dropped him with 59 seconds left in the first.

Both guys should know the stakes are high in this one. Here’s hoping that sense of urgency creates a quality encounter.

Matt Riddle (5-2) vs. Lance Benoist (5-0)

I have to admit—I’m pretty intrigued by this match-up.

Despite his bad hair and the feeling in my gut that tells me he pops his collar, Riddle has looked solid since emerging off of TUF 7 three years ago. He and Sean Pierson combined for what should have been Fight of the Night at UFC 124, and he’s a pretty stiff test for the unbeaten UFC newcomer Benoist.

It’s so hard to know what to expect from a guy like Benoist in this one. Has he won all of his fights inside the the first round because he’s that good or because he’s been fighting scrubs? Of the five men he’s beaten, none are overly distinguished, so we’ll all find out tomorrow night whether he’s legit or just a good regional talent.

Evan Dunham (11-2) vs. Shamar Bailey (12-3)

After winning his fight against Ryan McGillivray at the Season 13 Finale in June, Bailey now makes the move down to lightweight. It’s a good choice for the undersized wrestler, but one that present a tough test right out the gate in the form of Dunham.

It hasn’t even been a year since Dunham was considered a rising star in the division. He got gypped out of a win against Sean Sherk at UFC 119, then was fed a beating by Melvin Guillard at Fight for the Troops 2. He’s battled injuries since and fallen into the background, but gets the chance to earn a good win here.

This could be a make-or-break fight for both fighters. Losing three straight would be hard to survive for Dunham, and Dana White was no fan of Bailey’s efforts last year on TUF, so he’ll need to do more than grind out a win from top position if he wants to earn a little job security.

Cody McKenzie (12-1) vs. Vagner Rocha

The Guy Fawkes of the UFC returns to face a fellow submission specialist in this one, and hopefully Rocha offers more in his second appearance than he did in his first.

Facing Donald Cerrone on short notice is a tall order, so I’ll cut Rocha some slack. That said, he looked thoroughly disinterested in engaging in that contest, and needs to step it up this time around.

After somehow scoring yet another win by guillotine in his TUF 12 Finale bout with Aaron Wilkinson, McKenzie put up a heck of a fight in a losing effort against Yves Edwards last January, sharing Fight of the Night honors with the veteran for his troubles.

If you’re not a grappling fan, this might be when you want to go get everything set up for the fights on Spike TV.

Alan Belcher (16-6) vs. Jason MacDonald (25-14)

Returning from a detached retina that put his career in jeopardy, Belcher hopes to pick up where he left off prior to the injury. His back-to-back wins over Patrick Cote and Wilson Gouveia had him climbing the middleweight rankings, and a win here would get him moving up the ladder once again.

For MacDonald, this is a chance to get a good win over a talent opponent who may not be all the way back just quite yet. The Canadian looked good in his own comeback fight at UFC 129, subbing Ryan Jensen in the first round, and has the ground game to catch Belcher if he get sloppy at any point along the way.

This bout is also the rubber match in the continuing battle between myself and Duane Finley in our ongoing series The Face-Off, so you better believe I’ll be watching intently.

Jonathan Brookins (12-3) vs. Erik Koch (12-1)

This is such an awesome fight. My personal opinion is that it should have been the co-main event, but that’s just me.

Brookins drops back down to featherweight as he finally getting back in the cage after having won TUF 12. The meditative Floridian showed tremendous composure and strong jiu-jitsu in running the table on TUF, and he’ll need to show more of the same here as Koch is a serious test.

A 22-year-old Duke Roufus student, Koch’s only loss in his career came to featherweight title contender Chad Mendes. He’s rattled off three straight wins since then, all in the first round, the last two netting him the Knockout of the Night bonus.

Koch is on the fringe of being a contender, and a win for Brookins would put him there as well.

Court McGee (13-1) vs. Dongi Yang (10-1)

The man with the best beard in the UFC returns to try to collect his second win since winning Season 11 of The Ultimate Fighter.

McGee looked good in beating Ryan Jensen in his post-TUF debut. He lost the opening round handily, but battled back nicely in the second and forced Jensen to tap in the third.

Yang has gone 1-1 in his two trips to the Octagon, losing a split decision to Chris Camozzi in his debut before dropping Rob Kimmons back in March. He went 9-0 with nine finishes prior to arriving in the UFC, so he has the talent to test McGee in this one.

Jake Shields (26-5-1) vs. Jake Ellenberger (24-5)

In the last decade, Shields is 20-3-1. He’s 15-1 in the previous six years, his only loss coming to Georges St-Pierre at UFC 129. It doesn’t get said enough, so allow me to say it: Jake Shields is bad ass.

Look at who he’s beaten in those past six years before you try to argue otherwise.

That’s what makes this fight so appealing. Shields is unquestionably a top 5 welterweight—top 3 even—but Ellenberger looks to have the skills to hand him a second consecutive loss. He’s like a mini Dan Henderson; power in both hands, good wrestling, hard to put away.

Some people might not like it, but I think this is a great main event for a free show on Spike.

Enjoy the fights!