UFC 137: Preview & Predictions

UFC 137 analysis from the opening bout to BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz

After a two week hiatus, the UFC returns tomorrow night, bringing a loaded line-up to the MGM Grand Garden Arena for UFC 137.

Anticipation for this event was massive. It’s still pretty solid, but admittedly, things have cooled a little in the last ten days; that’s what happens when the championship main event in the final week before the fight.

The funny thing — in the “that’s kinda cool,” not a “ha-ha” sense — is that even minus Georges St-Pierre and Carlos Condit, this is still a pretty strong line-up. I get that losing a title bout takes some of the shine off of the proceedings, but don’t sleep on this event just because it’s short a certain French-Canadian champion.

Here’s a look at what you can expect tomorrow night in Las Vegas.

Clifford Starks (7-0) vs. Dustin Jacoby (6-0)

Jacoby hasn’t even stepped into the Octagon yet and his UFC journey has already been a wild one.

The unbeaten 23-year-old stepped up to replace an injured Tim Credeur opposite Brad Tavares. In the wake of GSP’s injury, the duo were promoted to the main card, but that only lasted a day or two. Tavares came down with an injury of his own, got replaced by Starks, and the two neophytes with no losses between them will now kick off the card.

Starks fought just 13 days ago, defeating Artenas Young by unanimous decision. Whether or not that has an impact on his performance could be a determining factor in this fight.

Chris Camozzi (15-4) vs. Francis Carmont (16-7)

The UFC gets a “high five” for bringing back Chris Camozzi.

Despite having won his first two bouts in the organization, the Ultimate Fighter Season 11 alum was released following his loss to Kyle Noke at UFC 127 in February. The 24-year-old middleweight went out and got a good win over tough veteran Joey Villasenor in May, and now he’s back where he belongs.

Camozzi will welcome TriStar product Francis Carmont to the Octagon for the first time. Born in France and training with the talented group in Montreal, Carmont has won all four of his fights since returning from a two-year break from competition. Last time out, he needed just over two minutes to stop UFC veteran Jason Day.

Ramsey Nijem (4-2) vs. Danny Downes (8-2)

After earning a lot of television time and advancing to the finals on Season 13 of The Ultimate Fighter, Nijem was starched by Tony Ferguson in the battle for the six-figure contract. This is a must-win match-up for the charismatic wrestler, who follows many of his fellow cast members down to lightweight for his post-TUF debut.

Downes has earned a reputation as a kid that is tough to put away. The Duke Roufus trainee put up a good fight against Jeremy Stephens on short notice last time, and gets an opponent more his speed this time around.

With the massive collection of talent in the lightweight ranks, neither fighter can afford a second consecutive loss.

Brandon Vera (11-5) vs. Eliot Marshall (10-3)

Everyone knows “The Brandon Vera Story” by now, so instead of rehashing it all, I will simply say this: he’s talked a very big game for a very long time. Now it’s time to show up.

For Marshall, this is another chance at another chance. Despite a 3-0 record heading into the fight, he was released following a loss to Vladimir Matyushenko in march 2010. He won three straight, stepped up on short notice against Luiz Cane, and was punished by the heavy-handed Brazilian.

He’s said it’s “UFC or bust” from here on out, so a win will be the only way for him to keep his fighting career moving forward.

Tyson Griffin (15-5) vs. Bart Palaszewski (35-14)

Our Under the Radar fight for UFC 137, these two former lightweights square off in the 145-pound ranks here, both hoping to make a run at the featherweight title in 2012.

Griffin debuted in the division back at UFC on Versus 4, scoring a majority decision win over Manny Gamburyan. It was a hard, close fight against a former title challenger, and while not necessarily the flashy first impression he was hoping for, it ended his three-fight losing streak.

Finally making his UFC debut after an illness scratched him from UFC 130 in May, Palaszewski is well-rounded and exceptionally experienced. He has proven knockout power and an underrated ground game, and could be an instant contender in the division.

With the shallow talent pool at the top of the featherweight class, the winner of this one will move into “one win away” territory heading into the new year.

Dennis Siver (19-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (16-3)

With the lightweight title situation resolved, the time has come to start sorting out the contenders at the top of the 155-pound division as well, and this bout will aid in that process.

Siver has climbed the ladder in the last two years, stringing together four consecutive wins, most notably defeating George Sotiropoulos at UFC 127. He followed that up with a close decision win over Matt Wiman.

Cerrone has posted three wins in the Octagon already this year, and steps in here to replace Sam Stout. He’s worked his way up the ladder since coming over from the WEC, and has won five straight overall.

The winner of this one gets added to the group that includes Jim Miller, Anthony Pettis, and Joe Lauzon one step behind top contenders Ben Henderson and Clay Guida.

Scott Jorgensen (12-4) vs. Jeff Curran (33-13-1)

Jorgensen is one of the many incredibly talented bantamweights who is getting a bit of a raw deal since the move to the UFC.

His only loss over his last seven fights came in the final WEC bantamweight title fight in December 2010. He steamrolled Ken Stone back in June, and is still buried on the preliminary portion of this event, welcoming veteran Jeff Curran back to the big leagues.

Curran has put together a 4-1 record since dropping his final four fights int he WEC and being released. He is as savvy as they come and very skilled on the ground, but hasn’t had much success against quality competition in recent years.

Still, the 34-year-old has the ground game to give Jorgensen fits if he makes the mistake of going to the floor with “The Big Frog.”

Hatsu Hioki (24-4-2) vs. George Roop (12-7-1)

I know there are a lot of people wondering how in the hell George Roop makes it onto a pay-per-view card, but this is all about his opponent.

Hioki is the consesus #2 featherweight in the world, with a pair of wins over Mark Hominick from their days in Montreal’s TKO organization, as well as victories over Takeshi Inoue and Marlon Sandro. My assumption is that this fight is on the main card so that if (when?) Hioki defeats Roop, fans will have had the chance to see the next man to challenge Jose Aldo for the featherweight title.

Of course, Roop can throw a monkey wrench into things with another explosive finish like the one he delivered against “The Korean Zombie” back in the WEC. The former Ultimate Fighter cast member notched a good win over Josh Grispi last time out, and his length is very problematic in the 145-pound division.

That said, Roop is 4-4-1 over his last nine fights against mostly middle-tier competition. Hioki has proven himself to be the real deal thus far, and this feels like an introductory bout before moving him into the title picture opposite Aldo in 2012.

Mirko Cro Cop (27-9-2) vs. Roy Nelson (15-6)

This is one of those fights that makes me mad because the name value of the fighters gains them main card real estate despite the fact that they’re a combined 0-4 in the last calendar year.

I also don’t know why you don’t save Cro Cop for the February show in Japan? He seems to fight every six or seven months, so he mostly likely won’t be ready to return by then, even if he comes through this one with a clean bill of health. Of course, after his last two sluggish performances, I didn’t expect to see him back in the Octagon at all.

Nelson really needs a good performance here. His first two fights in the UFC moved him up the ladder, but he’s come crashing down in his last two. There are ways to justify each — Junior dos Santos has bludgeoned everyone, and he had walking pneumonia at UFC 130 in May — but at the end of the day, if he can’t put together a quality effort against Cro Cop, he’s in serious trouble.

Cheick Kongo (16-6-2) vs. Matt Mitrione (5-0)

If you’re not excited for this one, there is something wrong with you. Seriously.

Kongo is coming off his damn-near-finished knockout win over Pat Barry at UFC on Versus 4 in Pittsburgh, and would be riding a three-fight winning streak if he didn’t grab Travis Browne’s shorts so much at UFC 120. Still, he’s 2-0-1 since losing back-to-back fights to close out 2009, and the toughest test to date — by far — for Mitrione.

There isn’t anyone who thought that coming off TUF 10, Matt Mitrione would be the last member of that cast to suffer a loss in the Octagon. Most people didn’t expect much out of the former NFL defensive lineman, but he’s shown tremendous athleticism and development since then, stopping back-to-back opponents while wining all five of his fights.

The winner of this one becomes the best of the not-quite-contenders-yet set, a group that includes Browne, Nelson, and Brendan Schaub, all of whom are potential opponents for the winner as well.

BJ Penn (16-7-2) vs. Nick Diaz (25-7)

I too would have liked to see Diaz face Georges St-Pierre — or St- Pierre battle Carlos Condit for that matter.

Ultimately, I think a bout with Penn is an even better match-up for Diaz in his UFC return. It’s a better stylistic match-up for him, and f he loses, we won’t have to listen to excuses about GSP holding him down and not being a real fighter.

Penn will bring the fight to the former Strikeforce champion, and has a very comparable style with excellent boxing and a very slick ground game.

Diaz will have two inches in the height department and a four-inch reach advantage, both of which he’ll have to use to his advantage against the game former lightweight and welterweight champion.

The winner moves a step closer to title contention and the loser remains a force in the welterweight ranks.