UFC 137 The Face-Off: BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz

Finley and Kyte go head-to-head in the UFC 137 headliner

We were all set to roll out a Georges St-Pierre vs. Carlos Condit debate in the UFC 137 edition of The Face-Off, but then GSP went and jacked up his knee.

Now you’ll have to wait a couple months to find out if our two writers stuck with the representative from their respective country of residence or if they cross borders to make their cases.

Having already agreed to break their 3-3 tie by entering into an analytical battle over the UFC 137 main event, Heavy MMA feature writer Duane Finley and lead writer Spencer Kyte are sticking to those terms.

With St-Pierre and Condit out, Nick Diaz and BJ Penn step into the spotlight both on Saturday night and right now.

The Case for B.J Penn (Finley: 3-3, challenger)

There are so many questions that hover around BJ Penn as he heads into the Octagon. Breaking them down has become old hat at this point, so what I’m basing my case around is the fact Penn knows he is walking into an actual fight.

Of all the combatants on the UFC roster, if you had to pick two people who thrive on mixing it up with bad intentions, you could easily narrow said list down to BJ Penn and Nick Diaz.

One of the biggest advantages comes in the fact that Penn, a former champion at both welterweight and lightweight, has consistently stepped into the cage against the best the sport has to offer. While he hasn’t always found success, the level of competition he has faced is far superior to that of his opponent.

As cliché as it sounds, a motivated Penn is one of the most dangerous men in the sport, and there is no question he is up for this bout with Diaz.

While motivation and experience will be huge benefits for B.J., the key to winning this fight will come from his chin and skill set.

Penn is regarded to have some of the best boxing in MMA, and this will come in handy against Diaz, who may just be the best pugilist in the game.

Diaz throws punches in bunches, mixing up the strength behind them, as it constantly keeps his opponents off guard. This will be difficult against Penn due to the Hawaiian’s head movement and cast iron chin.

The same cannot be said for Diaz, as he has been rocked and dropped a few times inside of the cage. Throughout a legendary career, Penn has never been put down and I don’t see it happening in this fight.

Mix in the fact both men have outstanding ground games, and I see this fight turning into a fireworks display featuring two sets of four-ounce gloves.

If Penn walks to the cage slapping himself in the face and talking gibberish, it is going to be a rough night for Nick Diaz. Penn comes in, puts his power on Diaz, and this fight ends half way through the second round via TKO.

That’s how I see it and that’s how it’s going down — Hilo rejoices and the Face-Off belt leaves Las Vegas with me.

The Case for Nick Diaz (Kyte: 3-3, defending champion)

Stylistically, these two are similar fighters, with both having very good boxing and exceptional jiu-jitsu.

Yes, Penn has a better chin than Diaz, but unlike the Hawaiian, Diaz doesn’t need a knockout to win this fight.

With those similarities in place, determining who will emerge victorious in this one comes down to things like endurance, heart, and drive, and I think Nick Diaz leads the way in all those categories.

You’re not going to tire Diaz out over three rounds. Even if this was a five-round fight, I would have zero questions about Diaz’s endurance in the 24th minute; the guy runs triathlons in his spare time, and does well.

You can’t say the same for Penn. His gas tank has always been a question mark, and while he showed some stamina in his final couple fights at lightweight, he’s never really shown it at welterweight.

He tired dramatically in the final round of his UFC 127 battle with Jon Fitch, and you can be certain that Diaz is going to push the pace harder in the opening two rounds than Fitch did in Australia.

I know it sounds a little ridiculous for me to speculate about the heart and drive of a fighter, especially one as enigmatic as Nick Diaz, but I truly believe he wants to prove people wrong with his performance.

The guy has been getting dogged — deservedly so — for the last couple months, not to mention having guys like me question the strength of his record during his Strikeforce days. This is his chance to step into the Octagon against a legitimate quality opponent and shut people up.

For a guy like Diaz, that strikes me as something that is deeply motivating.

There is nothing similar connected to this fight for Penn. He’s said all the same things about living up to his potential and blah blah blah leading up to this fight, but if he couldn’t get himself fully psyched up to face GSP a second time, why should I believe he’ll do things differently for Diaz?

Here’s the thing: I don’t see Penn knocking Diaz out like he did Matt Hughes, and I don’t think he can submit him either.

That means we’re looking at a protracted battle over 15 minutes, and those odds favor Diaz and his punches-in-bunches, cardio-for-days style.

It will be entertaining — and hopefully feature some in-fight trash talking too — and it will end with Diaz winning a unanimous decision, and me defending my title once again.