Getty University of North Carolina Drake Maye.
Three weeks from the 2024 NFL draft, the feeling on who the Washington Commanders should take at the No. 2 overall pick is now anybody’s guess.
The Athletic released a poll of anonymous NFL personnel on April 5 that showed there is no clear favorite among the quarterbacks who will be available at No. 2.
“The Athletic polled seven team executives, coaches and scouts over the past week for an updated evaluation of the QB class,” wrote The Athletic’s Jeff Howe. “Specifically, they were asked what they believed the Commanders would do at No. 2. Three of them believed (Jayden) Daniels would be the pick. Two thought it would be (Drake) Maye. One predicted (J.J.) McCarthy. The last executive, who is not selecting in the top 10, didn’t offer a prediction but said a trade-down would be the wisest choice.”
One month ago, The Athletic polled a dozen NFL personnel and Maye was an overwhelming favorite. So what’s changed in the last month?
Workouts Changed Perception of Quarterbacks
Perhaps no player has seen his draft stock rise from the end of the college football season heading into the draft more than Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy is coming off an undefeated season and leading the Wolverines to the CFP national championship but is a dark horse to leap up to either the Commanders at No. 2 overall or the Patriots at No. 3 overall.
The latest PFF mock draft from Brad Spielberger has the Commanders taking Maye. ESPN’s Field Yates has Daniels heading to the Commanders.
“Forecasting who the Commanders will take is a bit trickier, as the team has not tipped its hand in any meaningful way,” Yates wrote. “So I’ll go with Daniels, the second-ranked player on my board regardless of position, to replace Sam Howell after the trade to Seattle. Daniels was the best player in college football last season, winning the Heisman Trophy, and he blends rare mobility with excellent pocket passing. He averaged more rushing yards per carry (8.4) than any other FBS player in 2023 and led the nation in QBR (95.6).”
Jayden Daniels Has Experience, Drake Maye Has Upside
Daniels started an incredible 55 games across five seasons at Arizona State and LSU and had a virtuoso, Heisman Trophy-winning season in 2023 as he threw for 3,812 yards, 40 touchdowns and 4 interceptions while rushing for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Maye started 26 games over 2022 and 2023 at North Carolina and went 17-9. His numbers were demonstrably worse almost all the way across the board as a junior compared to his sophomore season in 2022. Maye played in two less games in 2023 and threw for two more interceptions. He also threw for less yards and 14 less touchdowns.
“Challenging evaluation with top-flight measurables and tools but inconsistencies that create a lower floor,” wrote NFL analyst Lance Zierlein. “Maye’s size and arm talent jump off the tape immediately. He can make every throw, but he will try to make throws that he shouldn’t have attempted. The gunslinger mentality creates a fearlessness that can turn into interceptions, but it will also allow him to win in tight windows and make splash throws that get crowds (and evaluators) on their feet. … The combination of traits and tape make him a boom/bust prospect who might need patient management and coaching to help shepherd him toward his potential.