Getty The Giants could lose a key free agent to a division rival ready to "overpay."
No team wants to lose a key starter to a division rival, but the New York Giants may change their minds if one of their regular NFC East foes “would overpay for a free agent in 2023.”
Spotrac.com editor and co-founder Michael Ginnitti believes the Washington Commanders would do just that. He told the Ross Tucker Football Podcast why the Commanders “would overpay” to take Daniel Jones “away from the Giants, leaving them with essentially nothing.”
“I think there is a team like Washington who would overpay to get Daniel Jones…”
Could the Commanders swoop in like @spotrac suggests if the Giants don’t either franchise or sign Jones to a new contract this offseason?
It’s a bleak prospect for the Giants to consider, especially after Jones has finally proved himself a credible starting quarterback in the NFL. The problem is his future isn’t the only looming issue facing general manager Joe Schoen, who must also decide what to do with bluechip running back Saquon Barkley.
Rival Has Plenty of Incentive to Pursue Giants’ Starter
Weakening a direct rival wouldn’t be the Commanders’ only incentive for pursuing Jones. Washington needs a long-term answer at football’s most important position after trying recycle veteran stop-gaps like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Carson Wentz, only to have to rely on journeyman backup Taylor Heinicke.
The latter is a free agent after this season, while questions persist about Wentz. He lost his job to Heinicke earlier this campaign, but has since been reinstalled as the starter, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport:
Sources: #Commanders coach Ron Rivera has decided that QB Carson Wentz is now their starter against the #Browns. He’s informed the QBs of his move.
Turnovers have plagued both passers, with Wentz throwing six interceptions and losing a fumble before suffering finger and bicep injuries against the Chicago Bears in Week 6. Heinicke has hardly fared any better, tossing six picks and losing five fumbles in nine starts.
He coughed the ball up twice in Week 15, inadvertently helping the Giants win 20-12 at FedEXField. Kayvon Thibodeaux’s strip-sack and subsequent recovery in the end zone gifted Big Blue a touchdown, but Heinicke’s fumble after being hit by Dexter Lawrence II deep in the red zone was just as costly because it took points off the board for the hosts:
On 3rd & 4, Taylor Heinicke sacked by Dexter Lawrence .. NYG challenge the play for a fumble
#Giants 17 #Commanders 12 4th
Mistakes like this used to blight Jones, but he’s cleaned up his act and is protecting the football better in 2022. He’s thrown just five interceptions and lost three fumbles during 15 starts this season.
Cutting down the turnovers is one thing, but Jones is also a more accurate passer since Brian Daboll became head coach of the Giants. On his watch, Jones has completed 298 of 448 attempts, good for a 66.5 completion percentage.
Jones is making quicker reads and finding his intended targets more often, both in and out of the pocket. The latter area is where Jones has made the most strides in his fourth season, according to ESPN’s Jordan Raanan:
This Year: 504 yards passing,
6 TD, 0 INT 63.3% completion
2019-21: 709 yards passing,
3 TD, 4 INT, 50.0% completion
Commanders’ head coach Ron Rivera would surely welcome the chance to work with a passer as increasingly efficient as Jones. Rivera would also likely see the Giants starter as a fit because of his mobility.
Jones has rushed for career-highs in yards (617), and touchdowns with five. Rivera has ample experience helping a dual-threat QB thrive from his days with Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers.
Jones could find a home in Washington, but the same reasons the Commanders would pay up, also explain why the Giants need to keep him in the fold. The only problem is working out how to do just that.
Not Easy to Make Room for Returning Starters
How does Schoen approach his dilemma with Jones? He could use the franchise tag, but the potential cost is “$31,497,000,” according to Over The Cap.
The Giants are projected to have $56,875,105 worth of room under the salary cap, but tagging Jones would take a hefty chunk out of the pie. Especially with Barkley still needing a deal.
Using the tag on Jones would make Barkley a prime candidate to get a long-term contract. The problem is he wants terms on a par with the league’s top running backs, per Rapoport and Mike Garafolo, including Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers, who earns $16 million annually.
Paying Barkley what he wants after tagging Jones would suddenly leave the Giants watching the pursestrings instead of plugging the many other holes on the roster. Those problem positions include the interior of the offensive line, cornerback and wide receiver.
Recruiting fresh talent at those spots would be easy if the Commanders offered a king’s ransom for Jones. Yet, it’s more likely the Giants will follow Ginnitti’s projection and offer $66 million over three years, perhaps after restructuring the deal for backup Tyrod Taylor.
Combined with tagging Barkley for $12,632,000, this approach would be cheaper than attempting to sign a replacement QB then seeing Jones twice a season playing for a rival able to help him continue his recent upward trend.