Redskins Playoff Chances: Washington’s Updated Week 16 Outlook

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Washington Redskins RB Adrian Peterson

The Washington Redskins have work to do when it comes to their NFL playoff hopes, and the odds aren’t currently in their favor. After the loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 16, the Redskiins moved to 7-8 on the season. Next up, they draw the Philadelphia Eagles but are going to need help on Sunday to remain in the mix. Barring the outcome of the Week 16 action, there’s an outside chance a matchup between the Redskins and Eagles could decide a playoff berth.

We’re going to dive into the current playoff outlook and Washington’s chances to go dancing when Week 17 wraps up. The loss to the Titans on Saturday was a tough one and will ultimately leave the team having to sweat out Sunday’s action.

Let’s start with the NFC standings and then evaluate the odds and chances of the Redskins making the postseason.

*Note: Updated odds/chances for Redskins’ playoff outlook below.

NFC Playoff Standings

The Redskins (and Eagles) find themselves in a tough spot due to the tie which the Minnesota Vikings picked up in Week 2 against the Green Bay Packers. They also could have a chance to catch the Seattle Seahawks, but that’s a major long shot.

The path to the postseason gets cloudy for the Redskins now, as one Vikings loss will no longer be enough. But if they moved into a tiebreak situation with the Seahawks (requiring two losses for Seattle), it would come down to either conference record or won-lost-tied percentage in common games. Entering Week 16, Seattle holds a one-game edge in conference record (7-4 vs. 6-5), so the best-case scenario is the tiebreak going one step further.

For those curious, here’s a look at an overview of how the tiebreakers work for Wild Card seeding, courtesy of NFL.com.

Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.

Washington fans won’t want to bet on making it into the postseason on the above tiebreakers so the focus will be on surpassing Minnesota. It’s worth noting both teams in the current Wild Card spots do have tough games ahead. Specifically, the Seahawks play the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16 while the Vikings face the Chicago Bears in the final game, although Matt Nagy could rest players.

Redskins’ Playoff Chances

Prior to Saturday’s game against the Titans, the Redskins held an 18 percent chance to earn the final Wild Card spot. They also had a two percent chance at both the No. 5 and No. 4 seeds (winning the NFC East), per Playoff Status. The most likely scenario according to the odds pointed to Washington landing on the outside of the playoffs looking in (79 percent).

Update: The Redskins have been removed from postseason contention.

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