St. John’s is a completely different program from the days Chris Mullin was leading the Red Storm to the Final Four as a player. In 1985, he scored nearly 20 points a game and led the team to a No. 1 ranking, which led to his first-round selection in the NBA Draft to the Golden State Warriors.
21 years later, he took the mantle as head coach. While he inherited an NCAA Tournament squad from 2015, he also saw 11 players depart before the season even began. Naturally with such depletion, his first team went just 8-24.
Fast forward to today, and he has the Red Storm at 20-11 and knocking on the door of another turn at the Big Dance. With a 3-game losing streak to end Big East play, Mullin and company are desperate for a win tonight against last-place DePaul (9:30 p.m. EST, FS1) in the Big East Tournament.
The Blue Demons provided one of these losses, topping St. John’s 92-83 in Chicago on March 3.
Let’s take a look at the Johnnies’ NCAA Tournament profile and bracketology outlook, including a peek at best wins and losses.
St. John’s NCAA Tournament Resume
The Red Storm jumped out to a 14-1 start, which included wins over No. 31 VCU and No. 29 Marquette (according to the NET rankings). Outside of the overtime and neutral-site win over the Rams, the non-conference is underwhelming. No other other than Rutgers ranks in the top-100 (the Knights ranking No. 100 exactly).
Duke also blasted them by 30.
Conference season saw some gems balanced out by some really embarrassing blunders. On the brighter side, the Red Storm swept Markus Howard and Marquette, while also snagging a win over No. 25 Villanova.
On the negative side, they have an 8-10 mark overall in Big East play. That includes sweeps by No. 75 Providence, No. 102 DePaul and No. 70 Xavier. A split if 1 or 2 of those series likely makes St. John’s tournament discussion about seeding rather than simply making it.
St. John’s Bracketology Breakdown
ESPN’s John Gasaway stated that he’s not so sure the Red Storm are actually in the field of 68.
With St. John’s, we’re confronted with a classic case where the danger might be understated by the numbers. If you were told that the Johnnies were tapped as a likely No. 10 seed before they lost by 13 at Xavier, you would probably conclude that the team will still be fine in terms of getting an at-large bid. Bubble Watch isn’t so sure. Chris Mullin’s guys closed the season by losing four of their past five games to finish at 20-11. The Storm’s NET ranking is in the 60s, and the signature one-point win at Marquette has been dropping in value for the past two weeks.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had the Gaels as one of his “Last Four Byes” in his latest Bracketology. That means a No. 11 seed in the Midwest Regional, pitting the Johnnies against Buffalo in Tulsa. Texas Tech and Georgia State would be waiting on the other side of the pod.
Jerry Palm of CBS Sports presents a similar scenario, placing them as the 11-seed out of the South Regional versus Cincinnati. Michael Beller of SI.com said that St. John’s has to beat both DePaul and Marquette in the conference quarterfinals to stand a chance.
The only way St. John’s will feel totally safe on Selection Sunday is if it beats Marquette in the Big East quarterfinals on Thursday. To get there, the Red Storm will first have to take care of DePaul. They lost at DePaul two weekends ago, so there is some risk here. A loss to the Blue Demons would have St. John’s at-large hopes in serious jeopardy.
Bracket Matrix aggregates several prognostications from across the internet. The Gaels appear on just 90 of them (out of 112), and average out to an 10.61. That would mean either an 10 or 11-seed with a smattering of 12’s.
With 3 chances to get over the top against DePaul, who is just 15-14 and 7-11 in the Big East, St. John’s absolutely wouldn’t deserve a bid if it got swept.
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St. John’s March Madness: NCAA Tournament Chances for Red Storm