Colts vs. Bucs Prediction: Tampa Tries to Make it Three Straight Wins

Getty Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Indianapolis Colts played their way out of the AFC South race last Sunday with a gut-wrenching 31-17 loss to the Tennessee Titans. The deciding play came on a field goal attempt in the fourth quarter. With the game tied at 17-17, Adam Vinatieri’s attempt was blocked and returned by Tennessee for what would prove to be the game-winning touchdown. Indy now needs to not only beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday but also get some help if they want to vault back into the postseason race.

The Bucs have been one of the worst ATS teams in the NFL this season covering just four times in 12 games. There has also been an abundance of points scored with the over hitting nine times. The Colts expect to have leading rusher Marlon Mack back on Sunday after missing the past two games with a broken hand.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Bucs a 59.1% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s matchup between the Colts and Bucs.

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Colts vs. Bucs Game Details

Date: Sunday, December 8
Time: 1:00 pm
Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
TV: CBS
Spread: Jets -3.5
Total: 47

*All lines, odds, and trends are courtesy of Covers & The Action Network

Line Movement

This line opened at Bucs -1 and has been bet up to Bucs -3.5 with the slight majority of the bets and majority of the money on Tampa Bay. This line is correlated to the action and is moving with the market.

Betting Trends

• Colts are 6-6 SU and 6-5-1 ATS this season
• Bucs are 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS this season
• Over is 7-5 in Colts games this season
• Over is 9-3 in Bucs games this season

Analysis & Picks

The Bucs have been an enigma wrapped in a riddle this season. Jameis Winston could win the Triple Crown and lead the league in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and interceptions, which would be a rare fitting feat for the volatile quarterback. The Colts will be without two key pieces on offense Sunday as wide receiver T.Y. Hilton will sit due to a calf injury and kicker Adam Vinatieri is out with a left knee injury. Vinatieri has struggled mightily this season and is making just 68% of his field goals. Chase McLaughlin will try to fill the void on special teams for Indy but place-kicking could be another adventure on Sunday. McLaughlin is 13-for-17 on field goals this season kicking for the Chargers and Rams. Hilton’s absence will be much more noticeable and look for Tampa’s defense to take away the run with limited play-makers up top for Jacoby Brissett to throw to. The Bucs broke out of their shell last week and played a complete game against the Jaguars, beating their in-state rival 28-11. This feels like another good spot to back Winston in a low-pressure situation against a team with little hope of the postseason.

PICK: Bucs -3

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