Alistair Overeem Gets Slight Edge Over Brock Lesnar in UFC Undisputed Simulation

UFC Undisputed 3’s Brock Lesnar, left, and Alistair Overeem

Ex-Strikeforce champ wins 13 of 25 simulations

The oddsmakers believe the Brock Lesnar–Alistair Overeem fight will be close, and for what it’s worth, a video game agrees.

THQ, makers of the last two UFC video games as well as the third installment, UFC Undisputed 3, ran a simulation on the heavyweight showdown that is the main event at UFC 141, and the results seemed to be right in line with the current odds in the fight. Overeem is a slight favorite over Lesnar, checking in around -140 to -150 at most online sportsbooks; Lesnar ranges from +110 to +125.

THQ ran 25 simulations using in-game artificial intelligence, and after 25 fights Overeem held just a 13-12 edge. But the final conclusion was a prediction of a knockout for the former Strikeforce heavyweight champ at 4:38 of the first round.

Some other facts from the game simulation:

* Lesnar, a former NCAA champion wrestler, attempted a total of 287 takedowns, or about 11.5 per fight.
* The game claims the two fighters rocked each other an equal amount of times.
* Two of Lesnar’s 12 wins came by arm triangle submissions – the same way he beat Shane Carwin at UFC 116, his last victory before losing the UFC heavyweight title to Cain Velasquez at UFC 121.
* Overeem reversed Lesnar’s dominant ground position an average of two times per fight.
* Of Overeem’s 13 wins in the simulation, 12 came by knockout – a staggering 92 percent.

Lesnar and Overeem fight at UFC 141 on Dec. 30 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. The winner is expected to get a shot at Junior dos Santos, who beat Velasquez for the title last month. UFC Undisputed 3, which ups the ante from the last two versions by adding a Pride mode, releases for Xbox and PlayStation 3 on Feb. 14.