Former NFL GM Reveals Potential Trade Price for Baker Mayfield

Getty Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Randy Mueller, the 2000 NFL Executive of the Year, brings over 30 years of experience in the football business, including stints as the general manager of Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. With Heavy, Mueller breaks down the NFL from a front office perspective. You can follow Randy on Twitter @RandyMueller_

When it comes to Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield, perception is a problem.

This is the time of year that NFL teams are all in the business of selling hope, optimism and misdirecting perceptions. 

The Seattle Seahawks attempted to sell just that with team leaders sharing glowing thoughts on their newest addition at QB, Drew Lock. The Atlanta Falcons’ turn is coming soon as well, now in damage control having traded Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts after the franchise’s failed recruitment of Deshaun Watson.

With the game of musical chairs continuing to play out in the NFL QB market, one of the prevailing questions permeating NFL narratives is what will become of Mayfield. 

Will he be traded or will the Browns hang on to the former No. 1 pick as insurance against the newly acquired Watson, who is sure to be handed a suspension at some point by the NFL league office? Trust me, with 22 civil lawsuits pending, the decision makers in the high castle on Park Avenue will no doubt supply their own verdict to the case that has stirred public opinion and perception like few others in the history of the league. 

But, here are the perceptions that will affect what the Browns are able to receive back in compensation for Mayfield, if they decide to move the former Heisman Trophy winner.

The latest Browns news straight to your inbox! Subscribe to the Heavy on Browns newsletter here!

NFL Evaluators ‘Have Always Had Doubt’ About Mayfield

After Mayfield’s latest social media outburst, it’s easy to ask: Is his brash, emotional, impulsive and sometimes thin-skinned personality going to be a problem in the locker room going forward? And how do those traits play in leading a building full of grown men?

You’d have to view this with skepticism after his first four years in the league. The other hurdle of perception is that Mayfield and his camp believe he deserves a top-dollar contract extension in line with the current QB market. One that most recently saw Super Bowl winner Matthew Stafford secure a four-year, $160 million deal with $135 million in guarantees.

The expectations that come with being the first pick in the draft might shape public perception, but in NFL buildings around the league, evaluators have always had doubt. 

There were many people (me included) who not only didn’t see Mayfield as the best player or even the best QB in the 2018 draft. He was clearly not perceived as the consensus top pick around the league.

Most inside the league thought he was over-drafted then — so after four years, the perception of him as an NFL QB probably puts him in the $18-25 million per year range — and skepticism still exists, depending on who you ask. 

Who is looking to elevate their team to $18-25 million status at the QB position? This is where perception meets reality. Even without Ryan, the Falcons have already ruled themselves out of the Mayfield sweepstakes right now, according to ESPN’s Diana Russini.

How Much Could the Browns Get in Return for Mayfield?

It’s going to be hard for Mayfield to now change the perception that he has created with his off-the-field step-by-step diary of his emotional state. His leadership style and path to re-establish himself in an NFL team-builder’s eyes will take time.  Especially when you consider his current contract, which has only one year (his fifth-year option) remaining on it, adding to the hurdles that will be tough to move.

And let’s face it, it’s going to be awkward for Mayfield to move — doesn’t he live in the Browns stadium?

Mayfield’s play on the field, despite what the numbers say — 26 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in 2021 — has been inconsistent and his skill set definitely comes with a less-than-ideal lower ceiling.

Playing QB in the NFL usually comes back to being comfortable in the pocket, with vision and the ability to process with chaos around you. Standing at six feet tall with an average arm and athletic ability for the position at the NFL level, the challenges are real for Mayfield. Still, he is probably better than what we saw in 2021. His injuries no doubt affected him. 

That being said, the Browns are probably looking at a day 3 draft pick when other teams package perceptions with reality on Mayfield. If the Browns indeed look to move him, teams to consider might only be looking for a one-year bridge deal to a future answer at the position.

With a 2022 salary cap number of $18.8 million, that will be a limited market.  

READ NEXT: Former NFL GM: Why Tom Brady’s Return Puts Major Pressure on Aaron Rodgers