With the Indianapolis Colts losing six of their last seven games, they appear to be heading for a draft position that gives the franchise an opportunity to select their next franchise quarterback.
But right now, one also can’t rule out the possibility of the Colts again going the veteran signal caller route.
The Athletic’s Jeff Howe connected the Colts to a couple different veteran quarterbacks, most notably, arguably, the top player unsigned for the 2023 season — Lamar Jackson.
“It’s extremely rare for a tagged player to sign elsewhere, but Jackson is a unique case,” Howe wrote. “Some of those teams won’t offer a better situation than the Ravens, but if he’s looking to maximize his value, this may be the way to do it.”
The Baltimore Ravens are likely to place either the exclusive franchise tag or nonexclusive tag on Jackson, who suffered a knee injury in Week 14, this offseason. That will make it difficult for Jackson to leave Baltimore but not impossible.
How Jackson Could Land With Colts
The first of the two tags Baltimore could use on Jackson this offseason — the exclusive franchise tag — does not allow players to negotiate with other teams. If the Ravens tag Jackson in this way, Howe wrote that Jackson is projected to make $45-46 million on the tag.
If the Ravens don’t view Jackson as worth that price, they could place the nonexclusive tag on him, which is projected to be about $30 million. In this situation, the Colts and other teams will have the opportunity to make Jackson a better offer.
The Ravens, though, will still have the chance to match any offer Jackson receives, and if Baltimore declined to match the best offer, Jackson wouldn’t leave for free. Howe wrote Baltimore would recoup two first-round picks from Jackson’s new team.
Would the Colts be willing to depart with two first-rounders for Jackson?
That’s difficult to say. But based on the fact that Indianapolis is probably going to spend its first-rounder on a quarterback anyway, that price isn’t outrageously high. Essentially, the Colts would be spending an extra first-rounder on a proven commodity, which might be appealing for Indianapolis general manager Chris Ballard.
The Colts have the salary cap space and draft capital to make bringing in Jackson a reality if the Ravens don’t place the exclusive franchise tag on the 2019 MVP winner.
Howe estimated it would take a $250 million contract that included at least 80% of the money fully guaranteed to land Jackson.
How Jackson Fits With Colts
To maximize Jackson’s playmaking ability, Indianapolis would need to revamp its entire offense. The Colts have featured more traditional pocket passers for basically their entire history, particularly with Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers starting in two of the last three years.
That wouldn’t necessarily be a problem, though, as with the midseason coaching change, the Colts are expected to see major changes within the organization anyway.
The Colts likely cut Matt Ryan if Jackson comes to Indianapolis. Releasing Ryan saves the Colts more than $17 million in salary cap space although the team will also still be on the hook for $18 million for Ryan during 2023 in that situation.
That would cut into what else the team can do in free agency next year but only for one season.
Does Jackson’s Injury Impact His Free Agency Status?
It’s important to note, though, that Howe connected Jackson to Indianapolis before he suffered a sprained PCL in Week 13. He left the game on December 4 and is considered week-to-week.
Ravens coach John Harbaugh told the media on December 5 that Jackson is “less likely” to play in Week 14.
It will be interesting to see how his recovery potentially impacts his free agency status. The injury risk of Jackson’s style of play was likely a factor in his contract stalemate with the Ravens over the summer and could influence how much Baltimore is willing to offer Jackson for 2023.
Depending on the repercussions of the injury, it could also impact Jackson’s value on the open market.
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