With a 4-10-1 record, it’s looking more likely by the day that the Indianapolis Colts will end up with a top-five selection in the 2023 NFL Draft.
On December 28, ESPN’s Football Power Index gave them a good chance to do so with a 70.4% probability. Just two days later, football analytics website Football Outsiders followed suit, giving the Colts a solid 65.9% chance to end up within the top five.
Indianapolis started its season with a 3-2-1 record, including a win against one of the league’s best teams in the Kansas City Chiefs, to make an early mark in the AFC South. Fast forward to Week 17, however, the losses have piled up.
The Colts have lost five straight, including seven of their last eight games.
Indy’s Road to a Current Top Five Pick
Within the losing span, head coach Frank Reich was fired, Jeff Saturday was controversially hired as interim head coach and quarterback Matt Ryan was benched twice.
The play of Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, Nick Foles and the highly-criticized offensive line has contributed to Indianapolis falling during the losing skid.
During the Colts’ 20-3 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on December 26, Foles threw three interceptions and the offensive line allowed seven sacks. In his 11 years of pro football, Foles has never taken more than five sacks in a game. The offensive line has also allowed a franchise-worst 56 sacks this season.
Saturday said that based on the game film, at least two of Foles’ seven sacks during Week 16 were a result of pass-protection flukes by the offensive line. Despite shared negatives between the offensive line and signal callers, the Colts have also not been able to establish the run in 2022, further limiting the team’s offensive progression.
Now, the Colts look ahead to Week 17 versus the New York Giants and Week 18 against the Houston Texans.
The Giants are no slouch, as they’re right in the pack for NFC Wild Card contention. The Texans, on the other hand, have the worst record in the NFL (2-12-1), but keep in mind it’s the Colts who split a tie with them Week 1.
ESPN’s Football Power Index also used simulations to determine the final results of the regular season. It predicted the Colts’ average draft position was 2.1, so Colts fans should be somewhat hopeful they will receive a favorable selection.
Could the Colts Go First Overall?
ESPN’s current odds for the Colts to receive the No. 1 pick are 0.1%, but for various reasons.
In order to secure a spot as the draft’s “top dog,” the Colts would need to lose to the Giants and Texans. They would also need help from the four teams ahead of them in the current draft order.
Those teams include the aforementioned Texans, Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos.
It’s a long-shot, but here’s the scenario: the Colts need the Texans and Bears to win out. To get No. 1, Indianapolis also needs the Cardinals and Broncos to win at least one of their last two games.
Anything can happen on any given Sunday, but considering the circumstances, the Colts would be content with choosing a top-five prospect regardless. That prospect could be a much-needed quarterback, as a recent mock draft revealed.
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New Odds Reveal Colts’ Possible Position in 2023 NFL Draft