Analyst Predicts Cowboys RB Tony Pollard’s ‘Most Likely Outcome’ After 2023

Getty Cowboys RB Tony Pollard.

The Dallas Cowboys could sign their Pro Bowl running back Tony Pollard to a $12 million deal on his next contract, says one NFL analyst.

As predicted by Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport, he expects the Cowboys to re-sign Pollard to another franchise tag next offseason. Pollard is due to earn slightly over $10 million this season under the current franchise tag.

Davenport argues that Pollard’s return from a broken fibula during the team’s playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers — combined with his lack of proven success beyond last season — leaves a second consecutive franchise tag as “the most likely outcome” beyond 2023.

Another Franchise Tag for Tony Pollard Remains ‘Most Likely Outcome’

“That injury isn’t the only uncertainty with Pollard,” Davenport wrote. “There continue to be rumblings that Dallas could add another veteran back, and Pollard is coming off a major injury and his only 1,000-yard rushing season.”

Outside of the fact that Pollard just registered his first 1,000-yard campaign and Pro Bowl season in 2022, the Cowboys could face a lack of salary cap space heading into next offseason. As Davenport mentions, Dallas has the ninth-least amount of cap space for 2024.

“There’s also the matter of the Cowboys annual cap problems—per Spotrac, the team currently has the ninth-least wiggle room in the league for 2024,” wrote Davenport. “That may seem like a problem for another day, but if Pollard can put together another solid season, signing the 26-year-old to a longer-term deal could actually make more financial sense than a second consecutive tag in which all $12 million hits the books at once. However, a second consecutive tag remains the most likely outcome here.”

In addition to the Cowboys’ salary cap issues, they have looming contract extensions to worry about when it comes to franchise quarterback Dak Prescott, star linebacker Micah Parsons and Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs. That’s not even mentioning possible contract extensions for lesser — but key — players such as offensive tackle Terence Steele.

In other words, Prescott, Parsons and Diggs will certainly take priority over Pollard. One could also argue that the Cowboys will also prioritize the 26-year-old Steele over Pollard considering longtime tackle Tyron Smith will turn 33 years old this season and is entering the final year of his current contract. That’s not even mentioning the clear devaluation of the running back position, which means Dallas could certainly pass on the idea of a long-term contract for Pollard.

As Todd Archer of ESPN explains, the Cowboys’ recent deal with Ezekiel Elliott may scare them away from any potential long-term deal with Pollard.

“The Cowboys are just coming out of paying Ezekiel Elliott a $90 million extension that included $50 million guaranteed,” said Archer. “Elliott will still count $5.82 million this season and $6 million next year against the cap. They were not going to pay huge money for another running back.”

Scenario Sees Cowboys Pass on Signing Tony Pollard to Franchise Tag

Archer even warns that this could be Pollard’s final season in Dallas. He points towards how Dallas could instead use their franchise tag to bring back Diggs or Steele if they can’t sign them to long-term deals next offseason.

“If the Cowboys are able to sign Diggs, their Pro Bowl cornerback, or Steele, their starting right tackle (at least at the moment) to extensions during training camp or during the 2023-24 regular season, then they would have a franchise tag available for Pollard,” Archer wrote. “Without a deal for Diggs or Steele, the Cowboys probably are looking at using the franchise tag on either one of them because there is more value to their positions.”

Regardless of how productive Pollard is during the upcoming season, it might not matter when it comes to netting him a long-term deal with the Cowboys.