Bears $3.6 Million RB Projected to Win Starting Job, Post Breakout Year

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Running back Khalil Herbert of the Chicago Bears.

The Chicago Bears are expected to attack the rushing game by committee this season, but every committee needs a chairperson.

As training camp nears, third-year running back Khalil Herbert is the frontrunner to win the Bears starting job after a second productive season as the No. 2 man on the depth chart behind the now-departed David Montgomery.

David Kenyon of Bleacher Report projected on Sunday, July 23, that the top spot in Chicago is Herbert’s to lose, and that the RB will produce a breakout campaign in 2023 despite the team’s additions of free agent D’Onta Foreman and rookie draft pick Roschon Johnson.

“The additions at least have the potential to disrupt this expectation, but Herbert has the versatility to fully command the Bears’ lead role,” Kenyon wrote. “He averaged 5.7 yards per carry last season and is a much bigger pass-catching option than Foreman.”

Khalil Herbert Should Benefit From Revamped Bears Offense

GettyChicago Bears running back Khalil Herbert (#24) is the leader in the clubhouse to start Week 1 of the 2023 regular season.

Chicago completely revamped the right side of its offensive line this offseason, signing guard Nate Davis and drafting tackle Darnell Wright with the No. 10 overall pick. The Bears also added wide receiver D.J. Moore, likely to be the No. 1 option in the passing game, and expect quarterback Justin Fields to make a major leap as he enters his third professional campaign.

If all goes according to plan, Herbert should be in an excellent position to succeed, particularly alongside Fields who had the second-best season in NFL history as a rushing quarterback across 15 games played in 2022. However, Kenyon noted that his prediction of a breakout year for Herbert remains reliant on a relatively young Bears offense coalescing as the year progresses.

“The risk is trusting a retooled offense that — while improved on paper this offseason — is still unproven,” Kenyon continued. “Herbert, though, has [shown] his talent. If the Bears are, in fact, more dangerous on offense, he should be a key contributor.”

Roschon Johnson Offers Bears High Upside Behind Khalil Herbert

GettyRunning back Khalil Herbert of the Chicago Bears warms up before an NFL game against the Detroit Lions in November 2022.

Herbert has produced an impressive 5.0 yards per carry on 232 attempts over two years in Chicago. Montgomery averaged 229 attempts per season over his four-year tenure with the Bears, which means a healthy Herbert should expect a similar workload if he assumes the lead role.

Extrapolating the numbers out, Herbert can reasonably expect to exceed 1,000 rushing yards by a significant margin. His targets in the passing game should also increase substantially from an average of 14 per season over the last two years. Montgomery was targeted an average of 45.5 times per year over that same stretch playing ahead of Herbert.

If Herbert can be the go-to guy in the backfield for the Bears, which previous evidence strongly suggests that he can, Chicago will have a borderline star on an enviable contract. Herbert is entering the third season of his four-year, $3.6 million rookie deal and won’t hit unrestricted free agency until spring 2025.

Who will backup Herbert also remains to be seen, but an entrance into the NFL could be Johnson’s coming out party. Typically, players make their names in the collegiate ranks, but Johnson didn’t have the same opportunity as most playing behind Bijan Robinson at Texas for the last three years.

Despite the continued devaluation of the running back position in the league, the Atlanta Falcons spent the No. 8 overall pick in 2023 on Robinson, agreeing to pay him $22 million over the next four seasons.

Johnson figures to play backup again as a rookie, this time to Herbert, but there’s no telling what his upside might be long-term. Despite playing second-fiddle to Robinson in Austin, Johnson still managed to produce 16 touchdowns and 1,541 rushing yards on 269 carries (5.7 yards per attempt) over the last three seasons, per Football Reference. He also caught 33 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns playing behind Robinson in the UT backfield.